Covid-19 (Coronavirus) - Status Update Thread (page 28)

Simon

I think the challenge of comparing infection and death rates is that not every country is the same. So when one country might have a death rate of 0.6%, that may only reflect potential ... (in either direction: you could aim to reduce to that or it could be how bad it could have been if you are below it).

Countries have different demographics, environment and behaviors so it's likely that the rate is going to be different between countries. Just because S.Korea's rate is 0.6% doesn't mean ours will be this high OR that low, depending on your optimism or pessimism.

But 0.6% (death rate) of 50% (estimated infection rate) of 330 million people (US population) is 1 million people.

Repeat for Europe - 2.2 million dead.

That is not insignificant and a few percentage points in the wrong direction could be even more catastrophic.

Tameria2001

I was watching from my community a televised town meeting regarding the Covid-19. The subject came up about capacity rules for bars and restaurants. At the moment the new rules are Bars and restaurants are required to observe an occupancy rate of no more than 50% of the total occupancy rate as set by the Fire Marshal. Tables are required to be at least six feet apart. This is subject to change when the need arises according to CDC rules.

The topic of religious services also came up, yes it was asked, and the answer was that there will be no changes to religious services. After reading about what happened in Italy, and North Korea, and how that was spread so rapidly in those locations because one person came home and went to their church and exposed many many people. Why did they exclude religious services from these same set of rules?

slimboyfat

Cases are massively under reported everywhere apart from S Korea where there will still be some under reporting. Death rate in S Korea will not be less than in other western countries. Death rate will not exceed 0.6% of the 30-50% who will be infected. Stop fear-mongering.

I am afraid you are very wrong. It is true that South Korea has a more complete picture of mild cases because of their extensive testing. But it is also true, and extremely crucial, that their health care system was never over burdened because their total number of severe cases never exceeded a few hundred. Why does that matter? Because around 15% of people with this disease need intensive care, and if there is not the capacity to provide it then the death rate climbs much higher than 0.6%, as Italy has sadly demonstrated. This is the worst crisis of our lifetimes. That’s is fact. (I really wish you were correct that this is “scaremongering”. Sadly I don’t think so)

*To complicate matters even further, there are at least two strains of this virus going around, and it’s entirely possible that the weaker strain predominated in South Korea and the stronger in Europe. Much remains unknown. Except that this is a terrible disaster, and the response of western governments so far has been tragically abysmal. Sadly, we know that already.

Simon

The Imperial College Response Team released a report on the impact of measures we might take to flatten the curve.

This is what's predicted with no action:

This is for the UK, but the y-axis is per 100,000 population, so you can multiply the numbers by 3250 and approximate the United States. It shows how many critical care beds might be needed with various policies in place. The red line at the bottom is capacity.

A chart for how many people might die in the United States based on this report under various scenarios. I should note that the final option, resulting in the fewest deaths, is pretty much impossible:

https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2020/03/heres-the-punch-in-the-gut-version-of-the-imperial-college-coronavirus-study/

The best strategies seem to work well into the summer, but then everything falls apart in the Fall. This means there's an opportunity. First of all, it gives us some time for a MASSIVE surge in capacity. Build the ventilators and get beds ready.

https://twitter.com/aaronecarroll/status/1239930705913810946

Simon

The TL;DR; short version: anytime the demand for ICU beds and respirators is above the red line, the death rate will be dramatically higher. It's all about keeping the demand for hospitalization low, at a maintainable level until the line can be raised (more ventilators etc...) or the peaks can be flattened (immunization).

2+2=5

It is estimated that only 4% of the Australian population falls into the high risk category, their vulnerability does not make covid19 a death sentence by any means.

The real problem, and our politicians refuse to speak about it, is our hospitals and health care systems. They run at capacity as it is, we don’t have room for more patients.

There aren’t ICU beds lying idle, let alone wards of ICU beds. The beds are full, year round. Hospitals are understaffed and overworked, grossly underfunded and have been for some time.

There are some that live at the mercy of our health systems year in, year out, and post covid19 it won’t be any better.

It’s time for massive future investment into health infrastructure.

This relatively harmless virus is now hurting even the most wealthy and privileged.

The cost of not protecting or concerning ourselves with the most vulnerable people in society is now being paid

Simon

You can't run your health-systems at peak level needed for a once-in-a-century outbreak such as this. That would be ridiculous.

Instead, you do what we're doing. All having some inconvenience to save things being overloaded and ramping up emergency responses - retooling factories to produce ventilators so supply rises to meet the demand when it's needed.

In future having 3D printers might allow you to make your own when you need it.

2+2=5

You can't run your health-systems at peak level needed for a once-in-a-century outbreak such as this. That would be ridiculous

Of course, but our health systems are virtually at peak level 365 days of the year, with no room to absorb anything.

With the money Australia has wasted on stupid shit, funding blackholes like our stupid 50+billion dollar submarine scheme, we should have hospitals and equipment to spare. The only logistical problem should be finding the health care workers and Docotrs.

What’s a more reasonable expectation we should have of our governments, that we have plenty of vacant beds and medical equipment available on excess all year round, perhaps even entire hospitals lying idle?

Should we expect a health care system where kids are rushed out recovery after surgery, makeshift ICUs regularly at bedside, emergency departments overflowing and so on?

That’s why covid19 is dangerous, we are not holding our governments to account, hopefully this changes things

Simon

but our health systems are virtually at peak level 365 days of the year, with no room to absorb anything

They really aren't. But fundamentally they are designed to deal with the throughput load, not the peak load. It has huge parallels with scaling computer systems.

The trick is to manage the load, rather than blindly scale the service to have capacity for what would otherwise be an overwhelming peak.

It would be unaffordable and people would be balking at the price, just a few years in.

jonahstourguide

Here in Australia, Simon, with due respect, they have been peak level. And this is before Covid-19.

Ambulances in most states ramp up outside hospitals and have been doing so for months. Ambulance crews have been with patients in corridors for hours as well awaiting assessment by hospital staff.

Ambulance and hospital staff are working ridiculous hours.

There is currently a call for all retired medical professionals of all disciplines to come back to assist with what promises to be a major overload of our health system in Australia. This is beyond our current overload.

2+2=5 has stated the situation here succinctly.

jtg

Covid-19 (Coronavirus) - Status Update Thread

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