by minimus 246 Replies latest jw friends
Furthermore, I am a black man, part of the 13% population. I am not a murderer; I have never committed a crime in my life.
To say that 13% commit 50% of murder is to lump me and the millions of other law abiding black citizens into your murder percentage. Do you not see the statistical fallacy?
Simon looks at statistics and conclude "Hisclarkness, because he's black, have then eight time more chance to be a murderer than me".
People often think that thing are simple, although they are almost never! And actually they are just saying simplistics things!
To say that 13% commit 50% of murder is to lump me and the millions of other law abiding black citizens into your murder percentage. Do you not see the statistical fallacy?
Simon looks at statistics and conclude "Hisclarkness, because he's black, have then eight time more chance to be a murderer than me".
That is not what those figures say and it's not what I said. If 13% of the population commit over 50% of a crime, it means they are severely over-represented and something is seriously wrong. It means there is a higher probability that a member of that population is likely someone who may commit that crime (assuming no one is suggesting there's just one, mother-of-all serial killers responsible for everything). And it's not just murder, it's all manner of crimes up and down the level of seriousness.
It doesn't mean you can look at any one individual black person and say whether they are criminal or not and no one is suggesting that. That's not what the % sign means, duh!
It also doesn't mean that you can really calculate the percentage of that group that is criminal, it's highly likely that some people are responsible for multiple crimes.
However, on a personal level, most people know from either direct experience or anecdotally that the probability of some person being a criminal or not is higher and so may chose to adjust their behavior accordingly. But I don't believe that the majority of people do this purely based on race, they do it on a raft of characteristics including dress, behavior, and what they project in their manner (and also, those of who they are with). People do this for personal protection because as a species we've evolved to spot threats because the people that did survived.
If you object to the judgement of the group based on the actions of individuals in that group, then welcome to the group-politics of the left and of BLM because anytime people say "the police" or "white people" are responsible for something as a collective then that is exactly the same thing isn't it? What's good for the goose ...
BTW: If you are going to deliberately post ridiculous claims and lie about what people have said then you don't belong to this forum because it looks like you're just trolling or else lack the intelligence to take part in a productive discussion.
meanwhile this weekend in Chicago 85 people were shot and 24 killed... priorities
Simon said:
”If you are going to deliberately post ridiculous claims and lie about what people have said then you don't belong to this forum because it looks like you're just trolling or else lack the intelligence to take part in a productive discussion.”
I hardly post on this forum because the discussions always get heated and any points made lose all credibility behind the harsh attitudes many people here have. I chose to speak on this issue because I feel personally affected by it. I spoke my peace. I tried to do it as respectfully as possible.
From this short exchange you have insinuated that I:
- am deliberately posting ridiculous claims and lies
- am possibly trolling
- and/or lack the intelligence to take part in a productive discussion
If that’s the way you treat people who disagree with you, then that’s fine. I was willing to respectfully engage with you.
I shared my experience and my view and you wanted stats.
I provided stats and you said I was twisting the stats.
I asked you to present stats for your side of the argument.
You said it’s not about stats, it’s about experiences.
Simon, there is no trolling here. We just disagree. You don’t have to insinuate that I’m too dumb or that maybe I shouldn’t be on the forum. Not everyone with an opposite view is an enemy that you have to beat down to a pulp.
I’ve said my side. It’s on the thread for the record. I’m glad I was able to be one of the very few voices to give the other side of the coin. And people can judge either way as they see fit. That’s all.
Hisclarkness, I think he was referring to me!
Simon, in this case, if you was referring to me, as english is not my mother language, even if I can read it easily, it's very hard for me to write it That's why I just write short sentences!
I don't want to write long sentences with a lot of mistakes. I have a lot of things to say about the subject, but I don't know so much to explain in english for now! And I don't want to write it in french and use google translate!
@simon
That is not what those figures say and it's not what I said. If 13% of the population commit over 50% of a crime, it means they are severely over-represented and something is seriously wrong. It means there is a higher probability that a member of that population is likely someone who may commit that crime
This is a valid point you made above. However, why didn't you acknowledge some of the statistics from @
You dismissed everything he posted. Were all the stats BS?
No, but how you interpret them matter. It's similar to how people have made wild claims about the COVID death rate by either only including people who have gone to hospital, or the entire population of the planet as the divisor.
It's just math tricks to mislead, not an attempt to have a real conversation.
How about we take 9 unarmed black people shot by police, divide it by the total number of black people (men, women, children and why not aborted fetuses as well?) and get an infinitesimally small number showing there's no problem whatsoever.
Is that how it works? Am I doing it right?
@simon
I mean, how unbelievably fucking stupid beyond belief do people have to be to vote for the party behind the KKK for the past 50 years thinking it's going to make their life better even though it never does?
The same reason poor white people keep voting for anyone who tells them what they want to hear and every time they keep getting f**ked over. They hear what they want to hear and they still remain poor. It's not that difficult to understand. You also make it sound as if the black community will be better off under Republican party. Go tell that to all the poor white people who have voted Republican and are still poor.
"Having aligned themselves with the Republican Party since the days of Abraham Lincoln, what made African Americans switch to the Democrats during the Depression Era?
"No, but how you interpret them matter" "It's just math tricks to mislead, not an attempt to have a real conversation."
Simon, how do you interpret the stats that Quetzal cited?
