Covid-19 (Coronavirus) - Status Update Thread

by Simon 656 Replies latest jw friends

• 

  RubaDub

  One tip: if a model shows a symmetrical curve then it's too simplistic and wrong - a realistic model would show a sharper growth and slower decline after it's leveled off.

  Simon ...

  Agreed. But as I see it, the entire sampling process is at best questionable, or more realistically, unreliable.

  Since statistically taking an entire population is not possible, a sample is the only realistic method to do it. However, we are not taking a random sample to arrive at a mean since there are restrictions on who is getting tested and who is not. IMO, you would likely need to take the samples on a case by case basis and then somehow find some correlation between the various elements.

  If you lower the testing rates and less people are positive, how do we interpret that?

  If you increase the testing rates and more people are positive, how do we interpret that?

  It feels like the more I think I know the less I actually know.

  Rub a Dub

  
  
• 

  Finkelstein

  Human isolation had to work eventually there was little doubt to that effect, what remains in qestion is what happens to the situation when these restrictions are removed.

  I guess they would have to look at the number of new cases to realize and accept containment.
  
• 

  road to nowhere

  Aren't there stories of Antarctic researchers getting sick after their isolation? There certainly was less around here. Traffic went to near normal, stores full, but I saw no queues. Of course if you need a new suit too bad, that is still closed. I expect a bump that will extend the home arrest orders into June
• 

  Simon

  Agreed. But as I see it, the entire sampling process is at best questionable, or more realistically, unreliable.

  Since statistically taking an entire population is not possible, a sample is the only realistic method to do it. However, we are not taking a random sample to arrive at a mean since there are restrictions on who is getting tested and who is not. IMO, you would likely need to take the samples on a case by case basis and then somehow find some correlation between the various elements.

  Sampling is only to tell you if the numbers you were putting in of the number infected (guesstimating) were realistic, it doesn't determine what the model was, but over time it should help to refine the model by indicating how wrong it might be and in what way. The fact that the curves were symmetrical from the outset is a dead giveaway that they were beyond simplistic to the point that you wonder if there was really a model at all - if you actually simulate transmission of a virus and plot the results, you never get that kind of curve. It's always a fast ramp up, the exponential growth part, and then a slower die-off as the virus is starved of oxygen. It's never a symmetrical bell curve - that points to a very, very simplistic probabilistic method, which barely classifies as a model.

  If we had a media, or an education system, people should be all over this. Instead we have "experts" who are nothing of the sort.

  The curve is being flattened, but it is not going to go down as quickly as iit went up.

  
  
• 

  Phizzy

  The curve may be flattened, but it does not necessarily then follow even a slow, but steady downward movement, not with a virus infection such as this, we should expect a bit of downward movement, followed by another upward one, and that pattern perhaps repeated. This is because various measures work for a while, like a "lockdown", but in that time, members of the community are incubating the disease.

  The Government in this Country,the U.K, is trying to give the impression that it up to a peak, then a slide down, with no hiccups. I doubt that will happen, especially as they are allowing people to return to the Country from all over the World, with NO CHECKS, and then allowing them to trot off home, maybe via the Supermarket, and so spread the disease further.
• 

  cofty

  The key thing for the UK is to make sure that the NHS can cope. So far nobody has been refused a ventilator who needed one and there is spare capacity.

  Pending an effective drug or vaccine it's about managing the risk
• 

  Finkelstein

  Hopefully when the restrictions are lifted we wont get a reoccurring effect blossom up, we might see a slight increase of cases but they can be handed with effective containment.

  The problem which governments are facing is do you let these restrictions go on and cause a financial ruin worldwide creating another great depression like the 1920's ?

  Governments cant keep on handing out money which most dont really have and wont have for while since economies are halted and taxes are barely coming in.

  Do you sacrifice some human life so the majority can live on in meaningful and fulfilling way ?
  
• 

  slimboyfat

  I can confirm that Phizzy. My brother just got back from Vietnam and they have regular checks in Vietnam, but nothing since he arrived back in this country. He wasn’t even told to isolate but is choosing to do so, after coming through Heathrow. He was probably safer in Vietnam, where they actually wear masks in public and have meaningful tests and contact tracing in place. They have had very few cases as a result, and they didn’t even need to go into total lockdown. Bars are closed but cafes and shops open with restrictions. How can Vietnam manage to test, trace, and isolate, to protect its people, but our government can’t manage it? What mixture of stupidity and incompetence will end up with the UK having the worst fatality rate in Europe. It’s a disgrace. We need the mother of all public inquiries into this disaster when it’s all over.
• 

  cofty

  As a single-party state, with large and well-organized military and security services, Viet Nam has been able to make decisions quickly and enact them promptly. There is also a strong culture of surveillance, with people expected to inform on their neighbours if they suspect any wrong-doing. Source
• 

  slimboyfat

  You’ve got different excuses for each country, haven’t you? South Korea, Vietnam, Germany, Hong Kong, Singapore—democratic, communist, or capitalist, they have all done significantly better than the woeful UK response. And the UK had more time to prepare than most of them, but squandered the time. What a disgrace.

  Perhaps other countries have done better because their starting assumption was (what should be) the startlingly obvious idea that the aim is to contain the virus as much as possible, not merely slow it down. The UK government on the other hand has argued that spread is a good thing, as long as it occurs gradually. Insane gibberish touted as “science”.

  Meanwhile evidence is growing that immunity may be short lived and long term health impacts are severe from this virus. I heard an intensive care specialist say it will probably take 12 months of care for the worst affected to recover, costing the NHS huge sums of money. What an absolute disgrace. The UK response has turned out to be an economic disaster as well as a human tragedy.

  They are trying to tell us that masks are no use, simply because they don’t have any, while many other countries use them as a crucial defence against the virus. The UK government are “reviewing” the matter and, no doubt when they eventually source masks, in a few weeks time, the UK government will discover new “science” that masks in public are effective after all.