by zev 61 Replies latest jw friends
I also would like to say that I don't see many of them selling the mags round here any more. Neither do they do street witnessing (in case they meet some real people instead of closed doors). Activity is certainly down, but I doubt they dare report the truth of the matter to crooklyn.
Makes me smile to think of a desperate elder making up hours to sent to the bethel!
I believe afew years ago,for every three that got baptized,two were leaving.This ratio is probably 1 for 1 now and in a few years it'll be 3 baptized and 4 out the back door.
As well,I think that of those who leave,less than 10% actually sign-up here.I know a lot in this area who have left yet I haven't seen one here yet.So if the numbers are increasing rapidly here,it means the decline is quite steep among the ranks of jw's.And as someone already mentioned,of those still in,a large percentage are just going along for the social connections or for family reasons.
Goldminer
Timely subject for me. In an email from a woman who was one of my closest friends growing up said
"...Next time I see him I'll try to think to ask. It may be awhile because he isn't in our circuit nor our district. There's been so much growth in the organization it's hard to keep up with everyone. I have blocked out so much of my younger life, that between that and the "fibro fog", Im fortunate to know anyone's name."
http://www.jehovahs-witness.com/9/119283/1.ashx
And I think the results of the discussion on the thread is that in some areas people are being shuffled around to make it look like rapid growth. A WTBTS Shell Game, if you will.
Seeker4 - I shall keep your info in mind when I feel the time is right for response.
Thanx y'all
I haven't been to the KH for a few years but I gather from my jw relatives that everything is fine in my neck of the woods. The young ones are getting baptized as they should, marrying young and breeding at an adequate rate. The only ones leaving are those who are dying. Everyone stopped thinking years ago and they're just waiting for the end.
There were a hell of a lot of cars at the hall in watkins glen the sunday before last when I went by (I didn't go in of course) but I wonder how many of those were race fans just in for the track! My brother is going to go back to that hall (he says) and I'll ask him about numbers!
Here in jax the numbers certainly LOOK like they are down! As to how many that leave come on this site? I'd bet less than .001% in total!
You can get some idea by playing around with WT stats.
2004 Ave.pubs = 6,308,341 (2006yb)
approx. 1/100 would have died that year, leaving about 6,245,257
2005 Baptisms = 247,631 (2006yb)
247,631 + 6,245,257 = 6,492,888 for 2005
2005 Ave.pubs = 6,390,016 (2006yb)
6,492,888 + 6,390,016 = 102,872
According to that calculation they had over 100,000 new ex-members in 2005.
Y'no deep down I think they want people out so they can cash out on all their property and relax down at the bethel in brazil. Think about there actions recently.
1. They make a resolution telling people to not use the internet chat rooms and such. ( a practical command to people ala reverse psychology.)
2. They not only go back to the revelation book ( one that makes the most avid Dub go WTF) but they issue a 4 PAGE KM insert with some 70 CORRECTIONS err updates to the book.
3. They have their public relations guy telling people that they are not spirit inspired but just earnest bible students like any other religion.
4. lastly any criticism that is brought against them they do not refute, in fact their silence in the face of such accusations ( UN, Blood, Malawi...take your pick) is deadly.
So for all you lurkers out there who are still trying to cling to the troof, get the hint already. They want you out of the org so they can sell the KH to the highest bidder (they will tell you not to do buisness with churches because that can be seen as supporting false religion, but if the 1st baptist lil rock of manasa church is the highest bidder oh well.) Teddy doesn't have much time left and he wants to enjoy his retirement.
Let's deal with the youths I know here. I'm going to code name them all for convenience
Boys:
D - Left as a young teen to live with disfellowshipped dad, never baptized
J - Was always considered rebellious and "marked" left as a mid-teen, never baptized
I - Left as a mid-teen, never baptized, parents were always considered week, was always fairly worldy in behavior
M - Left as a pre-teen, never baptized, parents left at the same time
A - Left as a late teen, baptized, moved away
J - Left as a late teen, never baptized
T - currently is a young teen, displays a lot of double life behavior
O - zealous front, thoroughly brainwashed
J - left as a pre-teen, mother was disfellowshipped, father was on again off again.
N - left as a child, mother was disfellowshipped, father was on again off again.
C - left as a child, mother was disfellowshipped, father was on again off again.
M - zealous, moved away, thoroughly brainwashed still to my knowledge
C - left as a mid-teen, quite worldly
C - left as a mid-teen, quite worldly
R - left as a young teen, quite worldly
Boys Total: 2 zealous, 1 fading, 12 gone
Girls:
Me - Left as a late teen, never baptized, moved away
E - zealous, pioneering
M - zealous, pioneering
T - strong witness
J - strong witness, used to pioneer but is now hospitalized
N - always exhibited worldly behavior and double lifing but is still active
T - used to be on the verge of fading until her dad starting coming again now she is coming back
R - still very young but expected to grow up and still be active
Girls Total: 5 steadfast, 1 left, 2 with wordly behavior
In total: 7 steadfast, 13 left, 3 fading or with worldly behavior
That's the best I can do by you for stats. That's the youth of my home congregation. Feel free to follow up by PM if you wish more information.
All I can give you are numbers from my Hall.
Four years ago (2002) = Approximately 65 publishers
Today = 50 publishers
Easy math. I must admit that many did move away. However, come to think of it, many moved in too. I guess this shows were the balance is going. Believe me, I won't be the last one left when this congregation evaporates.
Alligator Wisdom (aka Brother NOT Exerting Vigorously by WTS standards)
What Black Sheep shows is right, about 100,000 leave, almost half of those getting baptised. Considering the baptism figure includes a high number of children born into it actual growth from the field is now probably less than the number leaving.
Over 1,000,000,000 hours were spent witnessing with a net increase of only 80,000 publishers. It is only a matter of time before the WTS slips into negative growth.
