by zev 61 Replies latest jw friends
MIA formula on my WTS worksheet of statistics from yearbook (WT)
Number baptised - (Number average publishers current year - Number average publishers previous year) = MIA (adjusted for deaths and some overlap with unbaptised publishers will reduce numbers some)
2005
247,631 - (6,390,016 - 6,308,341) = 165,956 MIA
anyone under 45 just don’t care for the BS but continue because their parents are in the other camp.
I know of many in this camp.
j
Hey Zev, Welcome back !!!!
Yeah, I'm still here, although not posting as much.
Say "Hi" to "Somebody" for me. I really miss you guys. Hope all is well with the both of you.
Good to see you posting again. Lots of new people on board. Glad you're back.
Hubert
Blondie,
That formula is probably as close as we can get. Any chance of you giving those figures back into the mid-1990s and the 1914 generation change?
And would it be possible to see when the greatest number of increase in a year was reached? I remember a peak in the mid-90s, but don't have any info with me.
S4
I'm not sure I know how to cut and paste a worksheet:
YR |
LOC
PEAK PUBS
AV PUBS
PREV YR AV
% INC AV PUBS
# BAPT
% INC BAPT
# BAPT INCR MIA PUBS
1968
1,155,826
1969
203
1,336,112
1,256,784
1,155,826
8.7%
120,905
19,947
1970
207
1,483,430
1,384,782
1,256,784
10.2%
164,193
26.4%
36,195
1971
207
1,590,793
1,510,245
1,384,782
9.1%
149,808
-9.6%
24,345
1972
208
1,658,990
1,596,442
1,510,245
5.7%
163,123
8.2%
76,926
1973
208
1,758,429
1,656,673
1,596,442
3.8%
193,990
15.9%
133,759
1974
207
2,021,432
1,880,713
1,656,673
13.5%
297,872
34.9%
73,832
1975
210
2,179,256
2,062,449
1,880,713
9.7%
295,073
-0.9%
113,337
1976
210
2,248,390
2,138,537
2,062,449
3.7%
196,656
-50.0%
120,568
1977
216
2,223,538
2,117,194
2,138,537
-1.0%
124,459
-58.0%
145,802
1978
205
2,182,341
2,086,698
2,117,194
-1.4%
95,052
-30.9%
125,548
1979
205
2,186,075
2,097,070
2,086,698
0.5%
113,672
16.4%
103,300
1980
205
2,272,278
2,175,403
2,096,987
3.7%
113,779
0.1%
35,363
1981
206
2,361,896
2,247,486
2,175,403
3.3%
119,836
5.1%
47,753
1982
205
2,477,608
2,342,634
2,247,486
4.2%
138,540
13.5%
43,392
1983
205
2,652,323
2,501,722
2,342,634
6.8%
161,896
14.4%
2,808
1984
203
2,842,531
2,680,274
2,501,722
7.1%
179,421
9.8%
869
1985
205
3,024,131
2,865,183
2,680,274
6.9%
189,800
5.5%
4,891
1986
208
3,229,022
3,063,289
2,865,183
6.9%
225,868
16.0%
27,762
1987
210
3,395,612
3,237,751
3,063,289
5.7%
230,843
2.2%
56,381
1988
202
3,592,654
3,430,926
3,237,751
6.0%
239,268
3.5%
46,093
1989
212
3,787,188
3,624,773
3,430,926
5.6%
263,855
9.3%
70,008
1990
212
4,017,213
3,846,311
3,624,773
6.1%
301,518
12.5%
79,980
1991
211
4,278,820
4,071,954
3,846,311
5.9%
300,945
-0.2%
75,302
1992
229
4,472,787
4,289,737
4,071,954
5.3%
301,002
0.0%
83,219
1993
231
4,709,889
4,483,900
4,289,737
4.5%
296,004
-1.7%
101,841
1994
232
4,914,094
4,695,111
4,483,900
4.7%
314,818
6.0%
103,607
1995
232
5,199,895
4,950,344
4,695,111
5.4%
338,491
7.0%
83,258
1996
233
5,413,769
5,167,258
4,950,344
4.4%
366,579
7.7%
149,665
1997
232
5,599,931
5,353,078
5,167,258
3.6%
375,923
2.5%
190,103
1998
233
5,888,650
5,544,059
5,353,078
3.6%
316,092
-18.9%
125,111
1999
234
5,912,492
5,653,987
5,544,059
2.0%
323,439
2.3%
213,511
2000
235
6,035,564
5,783,003
5,653,987
2.3%
288,907
-12.0%
159,891
2001
235
6,117,666
5,881,776
5,783,003
1.7%
263,431
-9.7%
164,658
2002
234
6,304,645
6,048,600
5,881,776
2.8%
265,469
0.8%
98,645
2003
235
6,429,351
6,184,046
6,048,600
2.2%
258,845
-2.6%
123,399
2004
235
6,513,132
6,308,341
6,184,046
2.0%
262,416
1.4%
138,121
2005
235
6,613,829
6,390,016
6,308,341
1.3%
247,631
-6.0%
165,956
Blondie, thanks. I think I can read this.
This is what I see. In the early-80s the Witnesses began to recover from the 1975 fiasco, and experienced fairly high growth (5-6% a year) into the early 1990s, with maybe 1 Witness leaving for every 5 to 8 that came in, with some really skewed years in there. But overall, that was the case.
Then starting in 1994, it shifted, and for several years it was 1 leaving for every 3 that came in. Then in 1999 or so, it shifted again, to c. 1.5 Witnesses leaving for each 3 that came in, or about a 50% attrition rate, with growth slowing to the 1-2% range, really approaching a stagnate level.
My theory is that we will soon seen 2 Witnesses leaving for each 3 that come in, and within a decade it will pass the critical mass point and move to 3 Witnesses leaving for every 2 that come in, and we'll have hit the negative growth years.
I actually feel that the mid-1990s will be seen as the tipping point for the demise of the JWs for several reasons. It was the time when many left due to the 1914 generation change, the change in the sheep and the goats teaching and the change in the King of the North teaching. These had been veritable foundation stones of Witness theology for half a century, and in a mere few months they all disappeared. Anyone paying attention knew something was wrong.
Also, it was the advent of widespread access to the Internet, which I feel is the most powerful tool available to use against the WTS. There is nothing like the free and total access to tons of critical information, easily verifiable, against a totalitarian organization to make a huge impact.
When I want to know about anything, I go online and research it. I do this on any number of subjects many times a week. I'm in my mid-50s and not necessarily a product of the computer generation. How much more so will this be true of everyone in the years to come?
That gives you an idea of how many are leaving, and some of the reasons I feel it is happening.
S4
I still think all this number loss talking is wishful thinking on the part of many here. I confidently predict the JW's/WTBTS will maintain and if not increase their membership in the future despite the number of D/F or faders. But only time will prove me right.
Scooby,
You may be right. The WTS has survived many a challenge in the past, and may do it again this time. There are any number of diehard JWs out there who will certainly stay.
When you see other fundamentalist and literalist religions growing in the US, people trying to get the teaching of science watered down to their religious views in the schools, and at times being successful, and fundamentalist religion dominating our current political leaders in the US and Britian, it is disheartening indeed. I sometimes wonder if we aren't entering a new Dark Ages.
But, we've never had the Internet and the incredible wealth of information so readily available, and that makes me optimistic.
S4
For them to survive I think they will need to reinvent themselves again. This trend will continue only if they continue on as they are right now.
Seeker, All the times these groups including JW's/Mormons/Adventists etc expand, I always think it's a good thing. You can call it Fundemantalist, but what would worry me would be if they all disappeared and we were left with just one teaching or point of view. To me, freedom of expression would then truly be dead.
