As for distribution and printing quantities.... total magazine sales will be impacted slightly. Watchtowers will still be paired with Awakes, so for cold sales, the quantities will remain unchanged. For return visits and magazine routes (repeat customers), the quantity will drop by 25%. For JWs personal consumption, the quantity will drop by 25%. Internal consumption would be their largest market. Cold sales and repeat sales are probably about equal.
So, I'm thinking that net magazine sales will drop by 10-15%.
But, the only important thing to those bastards is the money. How will this affect donations?. Well, cold sales will be unaffected. Repeat customers probably donate a flat buck or two for each visit. My experience was always that householder donations varied with the frequency of visits, not with the size of the stack of mags, so as long as the number of visits remains constant, this should be about the same. How will this affect JWs donations? Knowing how cheap they are, it will probably drop their magazine contributions considerably. However, donations that are not dependant on literature (assemblies, wills, and other donations) will be unaffected.
So, I'm thinking that net revenues will drop by less than 5%.
And, as for the number of conversions, I doubt if there will be any change at all, since the magazines do piss-all anyway, other than raise money.
It looks like they have found yet another way to skin the flock.