If you're expecting a mass exodus anytime soon, FORGET ABOUT IT!

by nowwhat? 110 Replies latest watchtower beliefs

  • Drearyweather
  • shepherdless

    I will just quickly throw in my 2c worth.

    It is important to differentiate between financial collapse and an exodus of members. The two are very different.

    There is significant evidence that Watchtower is currently under significant financial strain. That does not necessarily mean a financial collapse is imminent. (In fact I would expect to see a few additional things, such as the sale or abandonment of Cheltenham before that). If it did suffer a financial collapse, would that lead to a mass exodus? My guess is that a significant minority might leave, depending on the manner of that financial collapse. You might have a situation where Watchtower goes bankrupt and it has little effect at all.

    Separately, I think there is a massive long term problem for Watchtower in western countries at least, in that they are losing so many young ones. Do you define that as an exodus? I will leave that to others.

  • slimboyfat
    JW's wait for the end of the world, while ex-Jw's wait for the end of the JW.s. Both of which are not going to happen.

    The two are not comparable. The end of the world is not a regular occurrence, whereas religious communities often experience collapse and/or steep decline: Shakers, Methodists in England, Catholic Apostolic Church, Christian Scientists, and the Worldwide Church of God, are some of the more dramatic examples. (Declines probably between 80 and 100% in less than 100 years) Significant declines also impact churches in the UK such as the Christadelphians, Anglicans, Church of Scotland, Salvation Army and more. (Declines probably between 50 and 80% in less than 100 years)

    There are many indications that JWs are on a well trodden path of decline, and in fact that their trajectory looks to be dramatic decline. This observation results from a large amount of evidence and reasonable comparisons with the experience of other churches.

    In fact I would go further and argue that there are a number of factors that make JWs particularly vulnerable to collapse above and beyond what has affected other churches. Which other church has relied so heavily on publishing for its income? Which other church has such bad child protection policies? Which other church has such incredibly unbelievable overlapping teachings? Which other church is likely to be as stubborn to change views on LGBT equality? These distinctive features (not unique, but distinctive, and unique in combination and for a religion of this size) of JW religion do not bode well for its near to medium term future.

  • atomant

    There is far to much wishful thinking by apostates hoping the JW religion will crumble in rapid succession.It aint going to happen.

  • slimboyfat
    Look at the following threads from 9-10 years ago which discussed it:

    That's true there has long been an expectation on this forum that JWs would collapse or severely decline. And I was very skeptical. But the facts have changed and the indications of collapse have multiplied. Many countries are now in statistical decline even by Watchtower's own measure. Census results from Australia, Canada and elsewhere look even worse. Dozens of branches have closed, KHs and assembly halls sold, congregations merged. Publications have been abruptly abandoned in the face of financial crisis. Exposure of very poor abuse policies is beginning to go mainstream. This list is by no means exhaustive. The facts on the ground have changed since ten years ago, and decline is well underway by any reasonable assessment.

    I like to compare JWs with the Catholic Apostolic Church and the New Apostolic Church. Look them up on Wikipedia. In the case of the Catholic Apostolic Church it became extinct within 100 years because of stubborn adherence to eschatological doctrine (overlapping generation anyone?). In the case of the New Apostolic Church they have only survived a significant prophetic disconfirmarion (search Botschaft New Apostolic Church) by denouncing parts of their history and implementing serious reform. It is not clear JW leadership is capable or willing to reform in this manner.

  • Onager

    shepherdlessan hour ago

    (In fact I would expect to see a few additional things, such as the sale or abandonment of Cheltenham before that).


    That's the town I grew up in, 3 congregations of varying size in a backwater town of no significance I'm aware of?

  • slimboyfat

    shepherdless means the new branch at Chelmsford

    Watchtower will abandon it, like the Romans before them.


  • jookbeard

    personally I never expected some sort of mass exodus, more interested in watching the possible financial meltdown of the Borg, but the exodus continues to be slow but noticeable, even so much as 10 years ago I wouldn't have expected to see the dreadful growth they're experiencing in Europe and a former stronghold Japan, continued KH sell offs,merges and liquidations, unheard off even 10 years ago.

  • freddo

    I like to think small but significant.

    Any decrease worldwide would be significant. But I guess if that happens the numbers will be spun further. They already use Peak publishers and have dropped "average publishers". I believe they have done this only because the "average publishers" looks worse - possibly already in decline?

    When the "Peak publishers" declines then that statistic may well disappear.

    So either a published decline = genuine decline.

    No figures published = genuine decline

    Spun figures = likely genuine decline "recounted" to make a tiny increase.

    Watch out for "love of the greater number cooling off" being trumpeted as a "good thing".

  • _Morpheus
    Those are just a few factors. There are many more that indicate JWs are reaching a tipping point. The fact is that their growth is already the poorest it's been since 1975 and there are mulple indications it is going to get a whole lot worse. Does that count as a mass exodus?

    Damn it slim, now i have to add this thread to the list of “slims gloom and doom predictions”. For the record, your first post on this thread seems to indicate you have a new new new postion, which is the same as one of your many old ones, that they are not yet declining but soon will.

    Its beyond a joke at this point slim. Give it up.

    Also also, if you say “their GROWTH is at its poorest since 1975” then no slim, by definition, they arnt declining. They are still growing... see how easy that is?

    Sigh.... now to go add to the list....

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