I don't know whether the org will cease to exist in the next ten years, but in one sense it's already gone. As I and others have already indicated, it's not the same anymore. Consider some athletic team that used to be exciting - attracting new fans, etc. Now, that team just exists and nobody cares about it or follows it. I think something similar has happened with JWs.
Have any of you seen any normal, stable, well-read people with decent intelligence and good common sense become JWs lately? In the past, such did. Probably a lot of us are in that category. I see virtually no new converts in my area now, and certainly none of the caliber I just mentioned. People of that caliber are not going to buy into the religion without doing some simple research and asking some simple questions. And when they do, they are going to get answers - answers that will at least cause them to be skeptical enough of JWs that they'll never make a full commitment. With the increased availability of info now and the passing of time showing JWs to be more and more wrong, I don't see how they can attract any quality members anymore. For sure, the material is dumbed down, nothing's exciting, and the doctrines are largely unprovable and indefensible. Some are outright ludicrous.
Consider the new generation teaching. According to JWs, Jesus was supposed to have been a master teacher who explained things in simple terms that the lowliest of people could understand. How, then, could he use a term like "generation" in a very important message and mean something as ludicrous as two groups of people whose lives overlap? It just doesn't make sense. If that's what he meant, I would not call him a master teacher. The pre-1995 generation definition made a lot more sense (see footnote). And even though it was somewhat flawed, I had no problem teaching it to others. I would not teach anybody the new doctrine.
And it's not just that higher caliber individuals aren't coming in anymore; it seems that some already in are beginning to gain a sense of smell and are realizing that something doesn't smell right. Consider my favorite brother in our circuit. He is very humble, kind, and by far the smartest, most knowledgeable JW I know. He's one of those people who loves to learn - not to be a show-off, but because he loves it and wants answers. He studies Hebrew, Greek, and Aramaic. He reads and compares different Bible translations. He has a big library. He is always seeking and questioning. He knows the Bible better than anybody I know. I don't know the whole story, but I know something's up with him. He's not an elder anymore. He has talked to me a few times and expressed some points that I really appreciated because I like people who are real and honest. I don't feel that I can give anymore details right now about him - maybe later.
Consider some more anecdotal evidence. In my area it's an awful chore to get an assembly or convention part that requres interviewing, for example, a family. An average, stable family with members having common sense and being able to say "Jehovah's Witnesses" (instead of "Jehovah Witness" or "Jehovah Witnesses") is just almost nonexistent.
A couple of decades ago, I knew JWs who were smart, well-read, and knowledgeable. One older brother studied Koine Greek. Another chose world history as an area of expertise. I was proud to take new ones to meetings then. I invite no one to meetings now; it's embarassing. There are some smart non-JW people that I know that I really care about and when I was still pretty confident that JWs had the truth, would have loved to invite to meetings, but doing so would have destroyed any possible favorable impression they might have had of JWs. For the last ten or fifteen years, I've had a number of older sisters confide in me about the quality (actually, lack thereof) of public talks. It has gone, and is going, downhill. One regular feature of the Watchtower study in our area (in at least two congregations) is what Mrs Magnum and I call the dictionary game. The conductor will ask, for example, "now what does this here word "transgress" mean?" For some reason sisters always play the game. One will comment in a higher tone: "well, my dictionary says....". Another, in a lower tone: "Well, my dictionary says...". Then a third, in a mid-level tone: "My dictionary says...". Then the conductor says "yes, and another dictionary says...". And, I swear, it's common words like the one I mentioned.
So, I have no prediction as to how long the org will last in the sense of just existing, but I think to some, in another sense, it's already gone.
footnote: Even though it made a lot more sense, it wasn't without its problems. By 1994, it had been 80 years; that's a life-span, not really a generation.
