The Gentiles Times Reconsidered--Again but this Time By Using the Bible (page 92)

well frank you must of seen something good being a jw.why the heck did it take you 50 years to work out jws dont read the bible?my guess is that the were other reasons for you leaving.but for what ever reason it was it isn't worth crying about now is it

fullofdoubtnow

I'm making a big deal out of your DISTORTION that JWs are diligent Bible students. You KNOW they're not just as well as I do, no matter how long you've been in the organization, so why are you being so deceitful?

He's a TROLL. Don't say you weren't warned, I said that after his first post, of this identity anyway. He comes on here to get attention, which he admitted the last time he posted as PMJ. The more you indulge him, the worse he gets. Please guys, don't give him any attention, and he will go away.

fjtoth

well frank you must of seen something good being a jw.why the heck did it take you 50 years to work out jws dont read the bible?my guess is that the were other reasons for you leaving.but for what ever reason it was it isn't worth crying about now is it

PMJ2,

Who's crying? Just as the Watchtower Society does, you've picked up their bad habit of reading into things. Life has never been better for me since my eyes were opened by reading the Bible for what it actually does say. You ought to give it a try. Of course, if you are like many of us were, you probably won't listen to reason until you're in your old age. In the meantime, enjoy your slavery to a man-made organization.

Frank

Beta Male

pmj

the cult of insinuation strikes again. why dont you tell us why he left, since you dont believe his reason; that is, study of the bible, and the subsequent disillusionment he referred to.

AuldSoul

pmj2,

why the heck did it take you 50 years to work out jws dont read the bible?

Some JWs read the Bible, but reading is not diligent study. And if they don't understand something the Bible says they don't look to holy spirit or the Bible for the answers, they look to the Watchtower Society. That is not what a diligent student of the Bible does.

AuldSoul

fjtoth

This is the way some JWs think, according to the way several have expressed themselves to me:

"Maybe they're right about 1914! Well, maybe. It's hard to tell. What if they're right and Armageddon comes like they say, and I'm not with them? I don't want to die, especially die and stay dead forever. I better not take my chances. If Armageddon doesn't come in the next 20 years or so, then I'll leave. In the meantime, I better play it safe and cooperate with the elders and the organization."

Frank

AlanF

Thirdwitless actually managed a response where he addressed each point I brought up. In his post # 310 in response to my post # 4712 (p. 39 of this thread), he launches into one of his multiple personalities, but predictably begins by misrepresenting the arguments presented by various JW critics:

: Where is this promised presence of his? Why paraousia doesn't even mean presence.

This is a deliberate misrepresentation of what various critics have said. I, for example, have posted definitions for parousia from a number of sources, which include "presence" as one of them.

Proceeding with this misrepresentation, thirdwitless builds a strawman argument:

: How can there be a presence when paraousia doesn't even mean presence. Indeed where oh where is this promised presence. Why look things are as they always were, no they are better.

Straw men are the only things that the thirdwitlesses can knock down.

: AlanF's contention:

:: Dead wrong. The Society claims that earthquakes, famine, pestilence and war suddenly became much worse problems for mankind in 1914. The facts say otherwise:

Thirdwitless then posted a couple of charts:

"Largest earthquakes by magnitude"

"Deadliest earthquakes on record"

He referred to the United States Geological Survey website ( http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/eqlists/eqsmosde.html ) as a source for these figures, but failed to give links to the actual databases.

It's not entirely clear where thirdwitless got the data for his first list (perhaps http://earthquake.usgs.gov/regional/world/historical.php ), but the second list appears to be from here: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/regional/world/most_destructive.php . In any case, the information was selectively edited, as anyone can see by just looking at these links.

As far as thirdwitless' first link goes, a more instructive way to present the data is by date order. By looking at the "Significant Earthquake Database Search" website ( http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/seg/hazard/sig_srch_idb.shtml ) of the National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC; a division of NOAA (National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration)), one can search a database containing some 5,000 unique earthquakes going back to 2150 B.C.: "Catalog of Significant Earthquakes 2150 B.C. to the present". The search engine is easy to use and allows one to search on many different criteria. I did a search on quakes of Richter magnitude 8.5 and up. After eliminating duplicate entries, I found the following data:

_DATE___________PLACE________________MAGNITUDE
_869/7/13_______JAPAN___________________8.6
_887/8/26_______JAPAN___________________8.6
1498/9/20_______JAPAN___________________8.6
1513____________PERU____________________8.7
1575/12/16______CHILE___________________8.5
1586/7/10_______PERU____________________8.6
1604/11/23______CHILE___________________8.5
1609/10/20______PERU____________________8.6
1615/9/16_______CHILE___________________8.8
1619/2/14_______PERU____________________8.6
1647/5/14_______CHILE___________________8.5
1655/11/13______PERU____________________8.8
1687/10/20______PERU____________________9.0
1716/2/6________PERU____________________8.8
1716/2/11_______PERU____________________8.6
1730/7/8________CHILE___________________8.5
1751/3/25_______CHILE___________________8.5
1811/12/16______ARKANSAS________________8.5
1812/2/7________MISSOURI________________8.8
1819/4/12_______CHILE___________________8.5
1822/11/20______CHILE___________________8.5
1827/11/16______ECUADOR_________________9.7
1837/11/7_______CHILE___________________8.5
1855/7/25_______SWITZERLAND_____________8.5
1868/8/13_______CHILE___________________8.5
1897/6/12_______INDIA___________________8.7
1897/8/5________JAPAN___________________8.7
1897/9/20_______PHILIPPINES_____________8.6
1898/6/5________JAPAN___________________8.7
1899/9/10_______ALASKA__________________8.6
1902/8/22_______CHINA___________________8.6
1905/4/4________INDIA___________________8.6
1906/1/31_______ECUADOR_________________9.0
1906/8/17_______CHILE___________________8.6
1907/11/16______PERU____________________8.7
1910/6/16_______VANUATU ISLANDS_________8.6
1911/1/3________KAZAKHSTAN______________8.7
1911/6/15_______JAPAN___________________8.7
1914/11/24______JAPAN___________________8.7
1917/5/1________KERMADEC ISLANDS________8.6
1918/8/15_______PHILIPPINES_____________8.5
1920/12/16______CHINA___________________8.5
1922/11/11______CHILE___________________8.5
1938/2/1________INDONESIA_______________8.5
1939/10/11______PERU____________________8.5
1939/12/21______INDONESIA_______________8.6
1950/3/7________BRAZIL__________________8.6
1950/8/15_______INDIA-CHINA_____________8.6
1952/11/4_______RUSSIA__________________9.0
1957/3/9________ALASKA__________________9.1
1960/5/22_______CHILE___________________9.5
1963/10/13______RUSSIA__________________9.0
1964/3/28_______ALASKA__________________9.2
1965/2/4________ALASKA__________________8.7
2004/12/26______INDONESIA_______________9.0
2005/3/28_______INDONESIA_______________8.7

Note that 38 out of 56 (68%) occurred before 1914. When one includes complete data from the Catalog, one finds an even bigger discrepancy between the data and thirdwitless' percentage figures.

Data such as the above must be viewed with the understanding that scientists only began systematically recording earthquakes around 1900, when the seismograph was invented. Prior to that, records were kept locally. Many significant quakes were never recorded at all because of several factors. People might not have made a record. Records might have been lost. A quake might have occurred where no one lived to record it.

A good example of the latter is a huge earthquake of about magnitude 9.0 that occurred in January, 1700 off the coasts of Oregon and Washington. This was similar in magnitude and scope to the December, 2004 Indonesian quake. Parts the coasts of these states rose or fell up to 10 meters, leaving sea bottom exposed in some areas and drowning coastal forests in others. In the 1990s, geologists investigating the quake took tree ring samples from drowned trees and found that the quake had occurred within a couple of years of 1700. Then they found a record in Japan of a huge tsunami that had occurred on the day after the quake. They also found some American Indian legends about the quake and tsunami that hit the American coast (for details, see here: http://www.oregongeology.com/sub/earthquakes/Coastal/japanrecords.htm ). This quake is not listed in the above-mentioned catalog of significant earthquakes.

Thus, complete earthquake data is simply not available for much of the world before about 1900. What is available certainly gives some information, but no one should think that records are by any means complete.

Regarding the incompleteness of quake information, and the fact that instrumentation has rapidly gotten better, the US Geological survey posts the following information (http://earthquake.usgs.gov/learning/topics/increase_in_earthquakes.php ):

Are Earthquakes Really on the Increase?

We continue to be asked by many people throughout the world if earthquakes are on the increase. Although it may seem that we are having more earthquakes, earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or greater have remained fairly constant.
A partial explanation may lie in the fact that in the last twenty years, we have definitely had an increase in the number of earthquakes we have been able to locate each year. This is because of the tremendous increase in the number of seismograph stations in the world and the many improvements in global communications. In 1931, there were about 350 stations operating in the world; today, there are more that 8,000 stations and the data now comes in rapidly from these stations by electronic mail, internet and satellite. This increase in the number of stations and the more timely receipt of data has allowed us and other seismological centers to locate earthquakes more rapidly and to locate many small earthquakes which were undetected in earlier years. The NEIC now locates about 20,000 earthquakes each year or approximately 50 per day. Also, because of the improvements in communications and the increased interest in the environment and natural disasters, the public now learns about more earthquakes.
According to long-term records (since about 1900), we expect about 17 major earthquakes (7.0 - 7.9) and one great earthquake (8.0 or above) in any given year.

They post this because a great many Fundmentalists expecting the rapture claim a huge increase in earthquakes since 1948.

The introductory material for the above-mentioned "Catalog of Significant Earthquakes" is a good deal stronger in its statement about using such data to claim a huge increase in earthquakes. It gave the following caveat ( http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/seg/hazard/sigintro.shtml#caveat ):

Caveat

Erroneous statistical conclusions can be drawn from the numbers of earthquakes taken from Catalog of Significant Earthquakes, 2150 B.C. to the present. The reporting of large or destructive earthquakes is not homogeneous in space or time, particularly for periods prior to the 1900s. Because this publication mainly lists those earthquakes that have caused death or damage, the number of earthquake reports is dependent on the written history available for a particular region, as well as on the rate of development of population centers and related structures. Therefore, it is misleading to use the numbers of significant earthquakes in that publication to suggest statistically that there has been an increase in worldwide seismic activity since 1900 or for any time period. that "apparent" increase in activity:
Instrumental seismology is a young science. The first calibrated instruments to measure seismic waves traveling through the earth did not appear until the late 1800s. At that time, seismologists became aware of the vast numbers of earthquakes occurring throughout the world, but because of the insensitivity of their instruments they were able to locate only the large magnitude events.
The 1960s saw two major advances. First, a network of seismological observatories, the Worldwide Standardized Seismograph Network (WWSSN), was installed by the United States Government, principally to monitor underground nuclear tests. These sensitive instruments could detect and identify earthquakes anywhere in the world from about magnitude 4.5.
Second computers became available in the late 1960s. Computers allowed seismologists to leave inaccurate and cumbersome graphical methods of locating earthquakes, and to process the increasing volume of new network data more rapidly than ever before. Prior to 1962, only hundreds of earthquake epicenters were determined each year by Government and academic institutions, but the number increased to the thousands using computerized location methods. In some special local studies, more than 100,000 earthquakes per year were identified and located.
In summary, using the data in Catalog of Significant Earthquakes, 2150 B.C. to the present to suggest that there has been an increase in worldwide earthquake activity is misleading and erroneous. The above observations and reporting factors must also be considered when making statistical studies based on that historical data report.

For thirdwitless' second link, the USGS list contains 23 earthquakes with 50,000 or more deaths, out of which 11 were post-1914.

: 9 out of 14 of greatest magnitude since 1914. Over half with greatest casualities since 1914.

See above as to why these figures are a gross distortion of the facts. A careful compilation of earthquake deaths from the above-mentioned NGDC catalog shows the following

Century Population Average Number of Deaths Average Number of

Deaths per Million

per Year

1500-1599 450-504 974,223 20.4

1600-1699 510-575 871,121 16.0

1700-1799 580-885 1,796,980 26.5

1800-1899 906-1544 1,073,800 8.7

1900-1999 1595-5621 1,804,315 7.1

The above data is extremely significant. It shows that the 18th century had virtually the same number of deaths overall as the 20th century did -- and this with incomplete data! The 20th century, with three times the average population of the 19th, had less than twice the number of deaths. This data proves incontrovertibly that the 20th century is no worse than previous centuries in terms of overall deaths, and a lot better in terms of per capita deaths.

: What you fail to understand is this coupled with all the other parts of the sign show we are in the last days.

Nonsense. As I carefully explained, since every one of these "other parts of the sign" are either better or no worse than pre-1914, there is no such sign.

If all you're claiming is that these things exist, but have not changed a good deal for the worse since 1914, then there is no way to distinguish between pre and post 1914 times based on a supposed "sign".

:: (2) The risk of dying in an earthquake in the 20th century was a bit less than in the 19th century, and less than one third of that in the 18th century.

: Big deal even if this is true. Not what Jesus said at all.

The Society has traditionally disagreed with you:

Reasoning From the Scriptures p. 236
Has there actually been a significant number of major earthquakes since 1914? With data obtained from the National Geophysical Data Center in Boulder, Colorado, supplemented by a number of standard reference works, a tabulation was made in 1984 that included only earthquakes that measured 7.5 or more on the Richter scale, or that resulted in destruction of five million dollars (U.S.) or more in property, or that caused 100 or more deaths. It was calculated that there had been 856 of such earthquakes during the 2,000 years before 1914. The same tabulation showed that in just 69 years following 1914 there were 605 of such quakes. That means that, in comparison with the previous 2,000 years, the average per year has been 20 times as great since 1914.
Life-How Did It Get Here? By Evolution or by Creation? p. 225
On the average, about ten times as many have died each year from earthquakes since 1914 as in previous centuries.
Tract T-19 Will This World Survive? pp. 4-5
On the average, about ten times as many have died each year from earthquakes since 1914 as in previous centuries.
The Watchtower, 1967, 5/1 p. 262
The yearly toll in lives lost from earthquakes since 1914 has been ten times what it was before that year.
w92 3/15 p. 6 What God’s Kingdom Can Mean to You
Jesus foretold that this would take place within the generation of those who would witness an extraordinary upheaval in human affairs. Concerning his "presence," Jesus gave a composite "sign" involving such developments as unparalleled warfare, earthquakes, famines, pestilences.

g74 5/8 p. 18 Can Earthquakes Be Predicted?
The "great earthquakes," those occurring since 1914 in "one place after another," verify the accuracy of this understanding of Jesus’ words. But some persons reason, ‘There have been "great earthquakes" in the past. Could not Jesus’ prediction of earthquakes be correctly interpreted as coming true in any generation?’
No. For one thing, as noted above, Jesus’ prediction of earthquakes occurs along with other woes, forming a composite "sign." Further, the great earthquakes of the past were generally isolated events occurring years, even centuries, apart. There were not many of them in a single generation.
w84 4/15 p. 5 Do You Recognize the Sign?
In What Way Different?
None of these things are unique to our century. So if they were to identify "the conclusion of the system of things" they would, in some way, have to differ from like conditions in previous times. In what ways?
First, every feature of the sign would have to be observed by one generation. Jesus said: "This generation will by no means pass away until all things occur."-Luke 21:32.
Second, the effects of the sign would have to be felt worldwide. Jesus spoke about "all the inhabited earth" and about "all the nations."-Matthew 24:9, 14, 30, 31 and 25:32.
Third, the combined conditions or symptoms would have to grow progressively worse during this period. "All these things are a beginning of pangs of distress," Jesus said.-Matthew 24:8.

Note clearly what is being said here: All of these things, including earthquakes. "would have to grow progressively worse" during the 20th century. There is no claim that these things simply exist -- because that is obviously a stupid way to identify a time period.

Why do you think the Society has made these claims? Obviously because they've traditionally claimed that a huge increase in number of deaths fulfilled Jesus' "prophecy". But Jesus actually made no prophecies about these imaginary signs. Indeed, careful exegesis proves that he actually warned against seeing such traditional Jewish apocalyptic signs as meaning anything. Who is a better source of information about earthquakes than the U.S. National Earthquake Information Center? As you've obviously discovered, it's easy these days to get on their various websites and download information that proves that earthquakes have had no discernable trend up or down in the 20th century. That downloadable information indicates that earthquake magnitude and frequency has not increased in the 20th century compared to previous centuries. So, according to the United States Geological Survey and the National Geophysical Data Center, no significant change in earthquake magnitude or frequency has taken place, and deaths have decreased dramatically since 1500. The Society more or less admitted part of this in 1993:

w93 12/1 6 Natural Disasters-Is God Responsible?

Can we hold God responsible for the increased havoc and devastation that have resulted from natural disasters in recent times? To answer this question, we must first consider whether there is evidence that the forces of nature have recently become dramatically more violent, perhaps even out of control.

In this regard, note what the book Natural Disasters-Acts of God or Acts of Man? has to say: "There is no evidence that the climatological mechanisms associated with droughts, floods and cyclones are changing. And no geologist is claiming that the earth movements associated with earthquakes, volcanoes and tsunami (earthquake waves) are becoming more violent." Similarly, the book Earthshock observes: "The rocks of every continent contain a record of innumerable major and minor geological events, every one of which would be a catastrophic disaster to mankind if they occurred today-and it is scientifically certain that such events will occur again and again in the future." In other words, the earth and its dynamic forces have more or less remained the same throughout the ages. Hence, whether or not some statistics indicate an increase of some forms of geologic or other activity, the earth has not become uncontrollably violent in recent times.

The Society admitted this more directly in 2002:

g02 3/22 p. 9 Earthquakes, Bible Prophecy, and You

Earthquakes, Bible Prophecy, and You

BEFORE his death, Jesus foretold events and situations that would give evidence that this world had entered "the conclusion of the system of things." That period, he said, would be marked by such things as pestilences, food shortages, and large-scale warfare. He also mentioned "great earthquakes" that would occur "in one place after another." (Matthew 24:3, 7; Luke 21:10, 11) Was Jesus referring to our day?

Many say no. They assert that the number of earthquakes has not substantially increased in recent decades. In fact, the U.S. National Earthquake Information Center reports that earthquakes of 7.0 magnitude and greater remained "fairly constant" throughout the 20th century. [Footnote: Some say that any reports of an increase in the number of earthquakes are simply due to advances in technology, which enable more seismic events to be detected.]

Note, though, that the fulfillment of Jesus’ prophecy does not require an increase in the number or power of earthquakes. All Jesus said was that there would be great earthquakes in one place after another. Furthermore, he stated that these events would mark the "beginning of pangs of distress." (Matthew 24:8) Distress is measured, not by the number of earthquakes or how they rate on the Richter scale, but by the effect that they have upon people.

The last paragraph above is an admission that everything the Society published about earthquakes since about 1923 is a lie. Earthquakes are not more significant in magnitude or frequency than in previous years. Quakes kill fewer people on average than ever before.

Clearly then, the Society is now left with the ridiculous claim: "Jesus said we would see earthquakes after 1914. We see earthquakes after 1914. Therefore we're in the last days." : (3) On a per capita basis, famine killed far fewer people in the 20th century than in previous ones. Indeed, today the number of overweight people in the world exceeds the number of malnourished.

: Key words: per capita.

Per capita basis is the only significant measure. Why? Because it directly measures the effect it has on individuals. I'll repeat what I said to saki2fifty: Suppose you lived in a city of 10 million people where the risk of being killed by a random gunshot was one in ten thousand per year. That means that, on average, 1,000 people a year were killed by gunshot. Now suppose you contemplated moving to a small town of 5,000 where the risk of being killed by a random gunshot was one in ten, so that on average, 500 people a year were killed by gunshot. Which one would you rather your family lived in? Which one has the greater crime? The answer is obvious, and when you think about it sufficiently, and apply it to natural disasters of all sorts, you'll see that the only proper measure of destructiveness is per capita risk.

Think of this stuff another way. Let's suppose, for sake of argument, that the population of some country could grow at a rate of 5% per year for a hundred years in the absence of earthquakes. Suppose that this country started with a population of 1,000 people. At the end of 100 years, the country would contain 1.05^100 x 1,000 = about 131,500 people. Now let's introduce earthquake deaths and suppose that earthquakes killed people at a rate exactly proportional to the population density, say, 1% per year were killed by earthquakes. Then the rate of growth would be reduced to 5% - 1% = 4%, and at the end of 100 years the population would be 1.04^100 x 1000 = about 50,000.

The key question is: Can you identify any point within the 100 years under consideration where the number of deaths due to earthquakes exceeded some critical level? If so, then present your argument.

But I have no doubt that you cannot present such an argument, so assuming that you cannot, then answer the following: Since you cannot identify a point in the 100 year timespan where earthquakes exceeded a critical level, how can you possibly think that, in the 2,000 years since Jesus' death, you can identify a critical level above which you can confidently claim that a claimed prediction by Jesus about earthquakes was really fulfilled? And if you can answer that, then what is that critical level, and when was it reached in the past 2,000 years? If you can answer these questions, what objective evidence can you put forth to prove your claims?

But of course, thirdwitless, readers know that you won't tackle these challenges.

: Again not what Jesus said.

What did he say, then? You've failed to tell us this about any of the points I've brought up. The Society has traditionally disagreed with you:

w55 2/15 p. 103 How Does Christ Come the Second Time?

In answer to his apostles’ question as to the sign of his second parousia or presence Jesus did not tell them to look in the sky but gave them a composite sign by which they could tell he was present. All the physical facts indicate that this sign has been seen since 1914. Has it not been since that year that we have seen warfare, earthquakes, pestilences and famine to an unprecedented extent?

: Millions die from famine. More than ever in any other 92 year period.

You continue to neglect the fact that the population of the 20th century was more than three times that of the 19th century, on average. So even if famine remained the same on a per capita basis, the mere increase in population would increase the number of deaths due to famine. Once again, there is nothing in such figures that indicates that any date whatsoever is significant.

But the rate at which people have died in the 20th century by famine is actually a good deal lower than in previous centuries in most countries. For example, take China:

1333-1337: 4 million in Kiang province alone.
1810, 1811, 1846, 1849: At least 45 million.
1849: 14 million.
1854-1864: 20 million.
1878-9: Between 9 and 13 million.
Total for the 19th century: Some 100 million.

Compare this to the 20th century: 1928-1929: 3 million.

1958-1961: 8 to 30 million due to famine, malnutrition and child mortality. Obviously, the 20th century is no worse than the 19th in China in absolute numbers, but on a per capita basis it's a lot better. How about deaths due to famine in other countries?
India:

1022 and 1052: whole provinces depopulated.
1555 and 1596: violent famine resulted in cannibalism.
1630: Many population centers depopulated.
1769-1770: Tens of millions, up to one third the entire population.
Early 1800s: half the population of Madras, Mysore and Hyderabad died.
1865-1866: 3 million.
1876-1868: 5 million.
1896-1898: 5 million.
1899-1900: 3.25 million. Compare this to the 20th century: 1908-1942: No major famines.
1943: 1.5 million.
1974: several hundred thousand. The same kind of statistics can be compiled for most other countries. So the facts prove that the 20th century is actually better, in terms of absolute numbers and on a per capita basis, in deaths due to famine.

: (4) On a per capita basis, pestilence killed far fewer people in the 20th century than in previous ones. Indeed, some historically major killers, such as smallpox, have been virtually wiped out. : Key words: per capita.
Key words: the only significant measure of affect on humans.

: Again not what Jesus said. What did he say? Again the Society has traditionally disagreed with you:

w81 4/1 p. 24 Grateful for Our Happy Hope
Jesus foretold that his presence would be marked by a composite sign involving unusual wars, earthquakes, food shortages and other things that have clearly been in evidence since the World War I year of 1914.

: Spanish flu of 1918-19 unparalleled in human history. Not true. This pestilence killed some 15 to 25 million. What about pre-1914 pestilences?
Roman empire:
165 A.D.: 1/4 to 1/3 the population died in affected places.
251-543: 50% reduction in population.
China:
310-312: 98-99% of the population killed in the northern provinces.
322: 20-30% of the population killed over a wider region.
762: more than half the population of Shantung province killed.
806 more than half the population of Chekiang province killed.
1331: 90% of the population of Hopei province killed.
1353-1354: 2/3 of the population in eight different provinces killed.
India:
ca. 1340-1346: whole territories completely depopulated.
Egypt:1347-1349: 1/3 of the population killed.
Japan:
808: 50% of the population killed.
994-995: 50% of the population killed.
Byzantine empire:542-543: Plague of Justinian kills 100 million.
Italy:
1346-1350: More than 50% of the population killed.
Poland:1347-1350: 3/4 of the population killed.
England:1348-1350: 50% of the population killed.
Iceland:1348-1350: 50% of the population killed.

Norway:
1349-1350: 2/3 of the population killed.

Denmark:
1349-1350: 40% of the population killed.

Sweden:
1348-1350: 1/3 of the population killed.
France:1346-1350: between 1/3 and 3/4 of the population killed.

In 1347-1350 the Black Death killed 25 to 40 million people in Europe alone -- at least 35-40% of the population. At least another 50 million died in China, India and the Middle East. Some estimates put the world death toll at 1/3 of the entire world's population -- far more than 100 million people.

Estimates are that syphilis killed some 100 million people per century from the 16th to the early 20th, when medical breakthroughs reduced the deaths drastically. Beginning in the 16th century, smallpox and related European diseases killed at least 50 million American Indians. In the 18th century, smallpox killed some 60 million Europeans. I could list a lot more deaths, but the point is made.

: Millions die from pestilence. More than ever in any 92 year period.

The above figures prove you grossly wrong. : (5) On a per capita basis, war has killed about the same number of people in the 20th century as in all preceding centuries for which we have good historical data.

: Per capita again.

Yep. Same reason again.

: Not what Jesus said.

What did he say? The Society has traditionally disagreed with you:

w85 2/1 p. 15 Seeing the "Sign" With Understanding

True, there had been wars, food shortages, earthquakes, and pestilences down through the centuries of our Common Era until 1914. (Luke 21:11) Nevertheless, there had been nothing to compare with what has taken place since the Gentile Times ended in that momentous year. The international strife that was surprisingly stirred up in the summer of 1914 grew into a military engagement in which 28 nations eventually took part. Along with that human upheaval came natural earthquakes. There were food shortages, or famines, and in the final year of that world war there came the thieflike pestilence called the Spanish influenza that took the lives of more than 20,000,000 humans. All of this was not just a continuation of the previously occurring pattern of things. It was the start of a series of events making up a "sign" that this system of things is in its foretold "time of the end."

: Nation rising against nation in the 20th/21st century is unparalleled in human history.

Only in terms of World War II. And WWII did not kill anywhere near the percentage of population as some previous wars killed. For example, the "Thirty Years War" in Europe (1618-1648) involved 10 nations and killed a huge number of people. Some 2-3 million soldiers were killed, along with more than 10 million civilians. In Germany alone, some 30-40% of the population was killed, some 7-8 million people. See below for more figures.

And note this fact: Despite the many troubles the world has experienced since 1946, many historians view the sixty years since then as among the most peaceful and prosperous in human history. Why? Because they know how much war has occurred in previous times. : Why do you think world war 1 was at first called 'The GREAT War'?

Because people have short memories, and by that time the media had learned that bad news sells. Remember that WWI was largely a European war, in the sense that most of the fighting was done in Europe or European colonies. This situation had a number of precedents:
The War of the Spanish Succession, 1702-1713:
France, Britain, Holland, Austria, and their colonists in North America duked it out in the power vacuum left by the death of the Spanish Habsburg king, Charles II. In North America the conflict became known to the English colonists as Queen Anne's War. At least 2 million died.

The Seven Years' War, 1756-1763:
Prussia, Austria, Britain, Franc, Russia, Sweden, Spain and most of the German States of the Holy Roman Empire duked it out over a variety of issues including control of North American. It was fought on four continents and three oceans. Britain came out the winner. Several million died.

The War of American Independence and its successor wars, 1775-1783:The American colonists, Britain, France, Spain, Russia, Denmark, Sweden, Holland and Prussia fought among themselves in Europe and the Americas. Several million died.

The Napoleonic Wars, 1792-1815:
Most of Europe was embroiled in this, and it spread to four continents. The U.S. attempted a conquest of Canada in 1812, for example. The "War of 1812" between Britain and the U.S. was part of this. 5-6 million died.

Other notable wars that killed huge numbers of people:

The Manchu-Chinese War, 1644-1647: 25-30 million killed.

The Taiping Rebellion in China, 1850-1864: 20-40 million killed.

Once again I could list a lot more statistics, but the point is made.

I should note that much of the above statistical information on war, famine and pestilence is taken from Carl Jonsson's book The Sign of the Last Days: When? It's available from the Freeminds website and directly from Commentary Press.

: Foolish reasoning and Not what Jesus said. In view of the above quotations from Watchtower literature, the Society has traditionally taught that war, famine, pestilence and earthquakes would become much worse after 1914, and would grow progressively worse as the 20th century progressed. Therefore, my reasoning is sound, because if these traditional massive killers truly were doing what the Socity claims -- killing far more people than ever before -- then the conclusion is inescapable that world population would have to decrease, not experience an explosion. Furthermore, it is the Watchtower Society itself that has claimed that Jesus' words meant these things.

: Jesus said people would be living their everyday lives as if nothing was happening. Precisely the point! That's why it's ridiculous to claim that Jesus gave a special sign of various disasters in Matthew 24:4-14, Mark 13:5-13 and Luke 21:8-19. Jesus warned against viewing these things as signs, precisely because they were the very things that have plagued mankind since time immemorial. Jewish apocalyptics had long used these things as signs of "things to come", and so Jesus warned his followers not to pay attention to them.

: What you are looking for is world troubles so bad that no one can live a normal life.

I am not looking for such things -- the Watchtower Society has directly made this claim. See the above quotations. Do you need more?

: But thats not what Jesus said.

I agree, but it's what the Society claims Jesus said.

: All the many things Jesus predicted make up the one sign of his parousia. Even you and your friends saying, "Where is the promised presence of his? Why, all thing are continuing....."

This passage fragment from 2 Peter 3:4 is yet another reason that the "composite sign" is a myth. To see this, let's look at two Bible passages.

Peter clearly believed that Jesus' followers were in "the last days" mentioned by the prophet Joel:

(Acts 2:14-21) 14 But Peter stood up with the eleven and raised his voice and made this utterance to them: "Men of Ju·de´a and all YOU inhabitants of Jerusalem, let this be known to YOU and give ear to my sayings. 15 These [people] are, in fact, not drunk, as YOU suppose, for it is the third hour of the day. 16 On the contrary, this is what was said through the prophet Joel, 17 ‘"And in the last days," God says, "I shall pour out some of my spirit upon every sort of flesh, and YOUR sons and YOUR daughters will prophesy and YOUR young men will see visions and YOUR old men will dream dreams; 18 and even upon my men slaves and upon my women slaves I will pour out some of my spirit in those days, and they will prophesy. 19 And I will give portents in heaven above and signs on earth below, blood and fire and smoke mist; 20 the sun will be turned into darkness and the moon into blood before the great and illustrious day of Jehovah arrives. 21 And everyone who calls on the name of Jehovah will be saved."’

Speaking of these same "last days", Peter admonished the Chistians he wrote to:

(2 Peter 3:3-7) For YOU know this first, that in the last days there will come ridiculers with their ridicule, proceeding according to their own desires 4 and saying: "Where is this promised presence of his? Why, from the day our forefathers fell asleep [in death], all things are continuing exactly as from creation’s beginning." 5 For, according to their wish, this fact escapes their notice, that there were heavens from of old and an earth standing compactly out of water and in the midst of water by the word of God; 6 and by those [means] the world of that time suffered destruction when it was deluged with water. 7 But by the same word the heavens and the earth that are now are stored up for fire and are being reserved to the day of judgment and of destruction of the ungodly men.

Peter's entire point here was that it was the very lack of an outward "composite sign" that allowed ridiculers to dismiss Jesus' predicted parousia. Peter's point was that it was the unnoticed mundane things, the "heavens" and the "earth", that God used to destroy the world in Noah's Flood, and that it would be those same unnoticed mundane things that God would once again use to destroy people on "the day of judgment".

Incidentally, this passage is a good example of why the Society's use of "presence" for parousia is wrong. It makes the passage more difficult to understand, whereas use of "coming" makes it all clear.

AlanF

jayhawk1

frank i said over 40 years that could mean 50 years.so dont make a big deal out of it.the watchtower society encourge to read our bible daily.if you didnt do that more fool you

PMJ2, dude you need to work on your grammar. I am not sure what this even means. Could you mean this? "Frank, I said over the last 40 years that it could mean 50 years. Don't make a big deal out of it. The Watchtower Society encourages you to read our Bible daily. If you didn't do that, you are more of a fool than me." Was that what you was shooting for, little buddy? If not, try again, punctuation, spelling and complete thoughts go a long way! Oh, and Saki, back at you buddy!

The Gentiles Times Reconsidered--Again but this Time By Using the Bible

Legolas

PMJ2

fullofdoubtnow

fjtoth

Beta Male

AuldSoul

fjtoth

AlanF

jayhawk1

fjtoth

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