Lots of VERY interesting points all of you folks bring up. I appreciate your comments ! I don't have time to respond to each person today - I have to work for a couple days out of town but I agree with Old Hippie in his observation that there are so many variables involved in these numbers that it's impossible to nail the numbers correctly or totally accurately. Jw's leave, then they come back and leave again- very true. And I like Lisa Rose's way of estimating the numbers over the long haul period of time from 12 % in 1986 to 1995 as compared to that exit rate increasing to 41 % from 1996 to 2005. I truly believe the WT Society really screwed themselves with the 1995 change in the new " generation theory " and it pissed off a fair number of JW's to leave.
Also what One Eyed Joe said about the numbers getting baptized will lag somewhat behind the number of new publishers is very true- although those numbers somewhat tend to catch up if some of those unbaptized publishers take the desperate plunge into the pool getting dunked at assemblies . It's an interesting thought.
Just for shits and giggles let's say that of the 3,000,000 JWs or so that appeared to possibly leave from 1990 to 2015 comprised of 1,000,000 witnesses dying that would leave about 2,000,000 over 25 years that MAY have ( not etched in stone people keep your pants on ) exited willingly via inactivity, disassociation or ( unwillingly ) through Dfing . So that would comprise about 25 % of what the WT Society claims is in the JW cult at the moment 8,000,000. Over a 25 year period. Which would of course be substantial.
Let's play the devil's advocate in a conservative way and say that even more JW's died in 25 years of that 3 million number. Let's say 1,400,000 for instance died physical deaths- that would result in 1,600,000 exiting the cult in a 25 year period which would comprise 20 % of the 8,000,000 the WT Society now claims are active JW's.
Of course I'm talking out of the side of my mouth and ass here- I get that- don't buy any property or stake a claim to what I'm saying - but it does make for interesting speculation in wondering just how MANY of these ex-JW's STAYED ex-JW's and are still out at present ? I'll take your observations and answers off the air . Gotta go get ready to go out of town. Please feel free to contribute your thoughts. I think it's great to brainstorm between us all and get different opinions. Thanks again , Peace out, Mr. Flipper