Decrease of numbers in Jehovah's Witnesses via Deaths, DFings, or Turning Inactive
O.K. So I'm sure a good number of us saw the chart that I believe the poster Splash put on another thread of figures since 1990 regarding how many baptized and % of increase each year . I started analyzing it ( and I know some referred to it briefly on the other thread ) and guessing of reasons the % of increase didn't match the number of newly baptized. And of course common sense tells us that either JW's leave the cult each year through death, fading into inactivity, or getting DFed. So they stop reporting field service time. If you subtract the amount of increase from the number who were baptized I believe it gives a good picture of how many possibly exited each year via death, Dfing, or inactivity
If there are other ways they eliminate themselves from the mix please let me know ( like become aliens or something Joking ) . So I just wanted to post these numbers and invite comments from you folks to see what you think :
Year Inc. Bptzd, Exiting or Deaths
1990-1991 261, 607 300,945 39,338
1991-1992 193,967 301,002 107,035
1992-1993 237,102 296,004 58,902
1993-1994 204,205 314,818 110,613
1994-1995 285,801 338,491 52,690
1995-1996 213,874 366,579 152,705
1996-1997 186,162 375,923 189,761
1997-1998 288,719 316,092 27,373
1998-1999 23,842 323,439 299,597
1999-2000 123,072 288,907 165,835
2000-2001 82,102 263,431 181,329
2001-2002 186,979 265,469 78,490
2002-2003 124,706 258,845 134,139
2003-2004 83,781 262,416 178,635
2004-2005 100,697 247,631 146,934
2005-2006 127,615 248,327 120,712
2006-2007 216,410 298,304 81,894
2007-2008 166,589 289,678 123,089
2008-2009 188,730 276,233 87,503
2009-2010 194,877 294,368 99,491
2010-2011 150,969 263,131 112,162
2011-2012 123,327 268,777 145,450
2012-2013 183,608 277,344 93,736
2013-2014 235,591 275,581 39,990
2014-2015 18,560 260,273 241,713
So if you add up all the figures in the exiting column the last 25 years via DFing, inactivity, or deaths it adds up to a total of : 3,069,116 people who have left the JW cult the last 25 years through either death, DFing, or inactivity. I'm not sure how many of those are deaths- but I would assume it does not make up the greater portion of the 3 million number.
I find it interesting that the highest exiting number occurred right after the 1995 debacle of the " generation " teaching fiasco and the 2nd highest number exiting came this last year after so much negative Internet WT Society news . So as always I invite any and all of your comments. This by no means is anything other than my own private numbers research for my own curiosity- so I'm not saying it means anything other than it appears the WT Society and JW's are losing members at a faster clip than I'm sure they want. I look forward to your comments. Peace & love to you all, Mr. Flipper
One figure I was thinking about that scews the numbers is publishers. When a publisher gets baptized he is counted as a baptism maybe even counted twice that year but then the following year would the number then not have to go down because he is only counted as a publisher?
I personally think the numbers are severely fudged. Where I live a dozen or so congregations have folded and we have amalgamated with another circuit.
20 years ago we had 1000 at our circuit assembly. Now with the amalgamation we have 1100. It's in decline and they won't admit it.
I remember at assemblies and conventions it used to be 15-20 baptized at assemblies and up to 60 at conventions. Now we have had 0-4 baptized at assemblies and I'm not sure at the conventions since i haven't been to one the past two years.
Current mortality rate in the U.S. is 821 per year per 100,000. So you could multiply the population times .0821 to get a rough estimate of how many died.
My maternal grandfather, who introduced this religion into my family, died in 1967. I am not sure his wife, my maternal grandmother, ever 'dedicated' herself, however, she died in 1975.
In the 1990s, I lost a cousin who refused a blood transfusion. Only 1 of her 3 children remained in the faith. (Her husband was not a JW).
I also lost an uncle who was a JW.
My mother died in 2002. She was a JW.
I lost an aunt and uncle in the 2000-2007 timeframe who were both JWs.
My father in inactive due to declining health from dementia.
Correction, it's .00821.
Do they count inactive/faders? if you don't formally leave,
Watchtower would never display this info in a chart. Rather they spin "peak publishers" to make it look like amazing growth. Inactive and faders would not be counted in the "peak publisher" total. 6 months of non reporting of field service time would take you out of that column and put you into the exit column.
thanks for the info definitely in the exit column!