Watchtower Organisation - it's all over, bar the shouting

by slimboyfat 199 Replies latest members campaign

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  shepherdless

  It seems pretty clear to me now that the Watchtower organisation is entering a serious period of decline and has significant financial and organisational problems, and mounting credibility problems.

  Great thread. I agree. I don't suspect any sudden collapse, though. I suspect it will be a long drawn out affair.

  I also remember as little as 2 years ago, there was no real evidence of member decline, and only a little evidence of financial decline. Gee, things have changed. Can't wait for the next yearbook figures.
  
  
• 

  slimboyfat

  Question for notsurewheretogo:

  How much do you think the WT Society spends each year?
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  notsurewheretogo

  How much do you think the WT Society spends each year?

  I don't know, did they not publish what they spend on missionaries etc each year in the Yearbook? I never checked the last figure but whatever it is the continuing sale of KH's and the contributions they get from replacing mortgages will offset that.

  With the stripping down of operation costs and $1 billion from property sales they are here to stay...8.3 million dubs means more contributions as well.

  They are still growing in developing lands at a decent rate.

  So whilst I agree with some of your good points the fact is their demise is a long way off, not in our lifetime anyway...I agree their demise will come but it has not started in terms of publishers...it is at a peak of 8.3 million.

  Whilst they are consolidating for reasons we know about that dubs do not that is irrelevant...they are trying to get their cost base down to the point where they can manage it with the current economic situation and the regular donations they know they get.

  They will be here for years to come...time is their only enemy...the further we get on in time the bigger the challenges they face but only from a doctrinal point of view...and as we know they can easily change that and carry on the game.
  
  
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  slimboyfat

  They spend nearly quarter of a billion dollars on special pioneers, missionaries, and travelling overseers a year. In addition to that they have to support 26,000 bethel staff. (Now shrinking) Plus there is the cost of literature production, building maintenance, legal fees, and so on. That's before you get to new builds of any sort.

  It seems probable they are spending well over a billion dollars each year. Maybe even a few billion a year. In fact there seems little reason to doubt Stephen Lett's comment when he alerted the brothers to the fact that the sale of each property in New York "only funds the worldwide work for a few months". A very revealing comment, not only in terms of level of spending, but also the use of one off revenue windfalls to pay for ongoing expenditure.
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  slimboyfat

  They are still growing in developing lands at a decent rate.

  According to a former CO from Honduras the WT needed to send their branch millions of dollars a year to keep it afloat: apparently typical for poorer countries.

  They may have combatted that with closures and cutbacks, however poorer countries are a net drain to WT. Increases in poorer countries are a liability not a financial bonus. If you doubt that fact just consider why they abandoned the Gilead missionary program in 2011. Would they have done that if poorer converts brought in money?
• 

  Cadellin

  There is no doubt that the organization is changing dramatically. Whether they are gone in our lifetime is questionable but it is safe to say that the organization called JWs will be very different in size, demographics and visibility 20 or 30 years from now, for all the reasons already cited. Selling off the Brooklyn & London properties was a huge move to liquidate and, as the saying goes, you can only sell the family silver once. The average JW in the US (and probably in other western countries as well) is middle-aged to elderly and of very limited financial means, certainly not of the numbers or finances to support multitudes in developing countries. The handwriting is on the wall.

  To counter this problem and to maybe attract new people/keep the youth, the organization has made a sea change in content. When I attended one day of the RC this summer, I was aghast at (1) the absolute lack of any kind of deeper consideration of Biblical topics/doctrine and (2) the blatant and undisguised sentimentality/appeals to raw emotions. It made me so uncomfortable that I didn't know what to do. Did anyone see the "lemontree" video? OMG!!! Anyway, I think that is representative of the new strategy. Will it work? Any converts or stay-ins will be drawn by pure emotion rather than rooted in "accurate knowledge" of the deeper things, which, when I was active, was what distinguished JWs from other religions (well, that's what we liked to think) or at least, there was the pretense of being engaged in pursuing accurate knowledge. Now, there's not even the pretense or attempt.
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  jookbeard

  notsurewhertogo, do you realise the WTS has lost a fortune over the last few years in their investments on the stock markets and hedge funds? they had their credit rating downgraded also, Samuel Herd said it in plain English a couple of years back on a video that " they have more going out than they have coming in" the 8.3 membership they "claim" to have is not keeping up proportionally anywhere near the planets population growth, their growth in third/fourth world countries does not bring in $$$$$$$$$$$$.
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  slimboyfat

  Is there any documentation of their credit rating being downgraded?
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  jookbeard

  its here somewhere I believe Slim, god knows where though
• 

  OnTheWayOut

  Growth is over for Watchtower. They are in slow decline, waiting for the members to die. I have a young 20's nephew who was dragged into it, but he seems more the exception and not the rule. And I wouldn't doubt that eventually, he will allow his hormones to dictate a decision about sex and get himself in trouble. Or something else.
  
  It seems that close to half of the young members I knew 15 years ago have gotten themselves into a judicial committee. Some left, some stayed. But the tiniest fraction of them become heavily productive JW's.
  
  And I doubt any of us really need to wonder about the growth from outside of born-in members. It just isn't there.
  
  You talk of decline over 20 years. Just 8 or so years ago, I would have challenged an idea that such decline would reach a critical point in that time. There are millions of JW's and they haven't "technically" started a true decline yet. But between taking all the congregation moneys, the revealing of pedophile and abuse problems, overlapping generation, and their ridiculous web presence, I am confident that the "millions" now living in Watchtower is partly "in name only" folks who are unable to declare their freedom from it.
  
  My mother is mid 70's. I see many more closer to her age than my age of mid 50's, and it just goes down after that. The internet causes many to never join or, if they are kicked out, never return.
  
  I think they will hunker down and become insignificant in the near future. I doubt they will disappear, but will be more like the Russelites. Have you seen or heard from any Russelites ever? I haven't.
  
  To be a bit on the cautious side, this decline may reach troubling levels for WTS, but it doesn't necessarily mean that a particular loved one of yours or mine will leave it in that same time. Someone always stays, just like the Russelites.