LEAKED: WHQ Accounts: 2016-2020 Budget
I admit I did not watch the videos, so I apologize if this was mentioned in there somewhere....
Budgets are based, at last partially, on assumptions about the overall economic forecast.
All these budget cuts, and expectations of contributions to be received, and so on....
Are they expecting the world's economic growth to continue as it has been for the past decade or so?
Since the 2008 economic crisis, we've had nearly a decade of great, nearly uninterrupted, growth.
We are overdue for at the very least a significant correction. Quite possibly a major recession, potentially a big one.
What happens if, say, we get a recession that is even just 50%, or 25%, as bad as 2008?
What if their expected income from real estate sales fails to meet expectations? What if contributions fall significantly?
They have all these plans, and budgets, and expected income and expenses....what if, economically, things go pear-shaped far beyond whatever assumptions they have made?
Maybe that is the key to "decline" vs. "collapse".
Well yes that’s what I’ve been saying. They have everything coming at once:
1. Decline in wealthy countries that are net contributors.
2. Growth in poor countries that are a financial drain. (Honduras alone reported to cost $6 million net per year)
3. Millions of new Bibles to supply when they can least afford it.
4. Relying on “income” from property sales to cover ongoing expenses, an unsustainable stop gap measure.
5. Making cuts that don’t save as much as they hoped. (Cutting printing by 90% doesn’t cut printing costs by 90% and cutting bethelites by a quarter doesn’t save a quarter of the costs)
6. Increasing legal costs.
7. Payouts and settlements in legal cases.
8. Decreasing contributions from publishers in response to cutbacks and media reports of legal settlements.
9. No apparent way to monetise any of their output either old print media or new broadcasting output.
10. No apparent wealthy benefactors as other groups often rely upon.
Yes on top of all of this, if the economy in general gets worse, it’s difficult to see how an organisation that is already struggling, will be able to survive.
SBF, "if the economy in general gets worse." One has to wonder if any of the blunderous moves by Trump might lead to an economic decline—or worse. Then the GB might have to finally dip into their large gold reserves, you know, those ingots they've been keeping stashed away that are stamped with "keep until necessary for proving SBF incorrect"!
You forgot a couple...
11. ...a globally connected legal system that - arguably - may be feeling increasingly pressured to "make an example" of someone (church or corporation) who clearly has it coming, and...
12. ...no "friends in high (political) places" to come to bat for them if/when that happens.
careful I'm available for consultation purposes for a reasonable fee. Maybe there should be a document in a drawer with my contact: in case all else fails call slimboyfat
SBF very good points. I never thought of the point you made that nearly all of their new propaganda comes in the electronic form, so it's very hard to monetize this. Most JW's only think to donate for actual paper books and literature. But at the conventions now they don't even do that. They just say get it on jw.borg.
Too bad for them.
And yet, slim acknowledges that rake in 1.2 BILLION a year.
They have income and a means to carry on. They can trim back, revamp and still be profitable.
Who was arguing that WT doesn’t have an income? Their problem is that their spending exceeds their income.
In particular they have far too many employees. They have enough employees to sustain a worldwide publishing empire that is now all but redundant. I don’t think there is any other church their size that employs so many people to do such a tremendous amount of unproductive work.
It made sense to train and employ missionaries when those missionaries sold literature and produced a net profit for Watchtower. Now it’s a loss all the way down the line. It’s a loss to produce the literature, then to just give it away for free. And it’s a loss to train and pay missionaries (and special pioneers and circuit overseers, for that matter) who no longer sell Watchtower publications.
They are cutting bethelites and missionaries and special pioneers in order to cut costs. But they still have the basic problem that none of these roles adds value to the organisation by their activity. Each and every missionary or special pioneers is a cost to the organisation with no financial return.
They didn’t know how good they had it when growth, preaching, and selling literature were all complementary activities that reinforced one another and strengthened the organisation.
Slim.... you predicted eminent financial collapse over and over. Over. And over. You have paraded around holding the banner that proclaimed without selling books they have no product, no income.
now your saying they can trim back and be ok....?
Where have i heard that before.... where.... have i.... heard that....
You seem to be coming round Morph, slowly but surely. Watchtower is in serious financial trouble and they are trying everything to prevent disaster. If seems doubtful they will succeed, but I am open to any contrary evidence.