This topic I digress about why the WatchTower relaxing the rules of disfellowship is essential for its survival. Many things I'm going to say are not my ideas, some are, the point is, I'm condensing everything in a logical and concise way.
The first thing we have to keep in mind is that the WT's main objective in instituting disfellowship has always been not to lose members because of the damage that a dissident could do, or to avoid gaining new members because of the bad reputation of a confessed sinner in the his/her region. In the end, the more active members, the more money to the coffers.
In this case of disfellowship due to apostasy, to avoid any spark, texts were sought out of context that even prohibited saying "hi". Thus avoiding any opportunity to make those inside also question.
That worked? It worked, it worked very well until... the internet came along! The internet popularized the voice of the excluded, and allowed someone inside, suffocated by pressure, to understand who the Watch Tower actually was in just a few clicks. The stampede accelerated with the internet. But not everyone fled, at least physically. The disfellowhip itself created a specific type of dissident perhaps as undesirable as the declared one: PIMO (physically in, mentally out).
PIMO is bad for WT for several reasons: the first is that if the person no longer believes in it but remains inside, the same person will no longer contribute to the coffers, will not seek new believers, and can even subtly open the eyes of the spouse or other family member inside. Furthermore, depending on the position of the PIMO, it may contribute to confessed dissidents by delivering documents compromising the WT itself, such as letters, minutes of judicial commissions (including pedophilia), etc.
The only way to get rid of PIMOs is to disfellow them, but detecting PIMOs is a non-trivial task.
In addition to the internet, society in general has evolved a lot on the issue of human rights, which has reflected in public opinion that it no longer tolerates human rights violations, including those practiced by sects. Laws against physical and psychological harassment, privacy protection laws, etc. And the State bodies themselves took a strong stance against abuses. Generating a series of legal proceedings and relative bloodletting in the WatchTower's coffers. Furthermore, another ally showed up to publicize these actions: the press!
For a narrow-minded member, the WatchTower can manipulate them into simply turning off the TV or closing a news website when the news is not favorable to them. But what about the 99.99% of citizens exposed to this news? The reflection of this news, which includes headlines about how Jehovah's Witnesses treat disfellowshipped people, makes people run away from JWs. The result is what we see today: pioneers walking around the streets and blocks or in the cart without being able to speak to anyone.
Therefore, the WT is in a dilemma: it cannot find new members and is struggling to keep those who are there. Would the solution be to close in on itself? It would work for a while, but as soon as the older people died, the religion would die with them. Besides, the fact of pressure could make even more dissidents. So it is taking the opposite path: making the burden lighter to keep those inside, including young people.
Here comes the question: if they also put an end to disfellowship (as this would give freedom to the PIMOs, soften their legal burden, and improve their negative image in the public, etc.) this would not open up a room for dissent to influence those inside? It would open. But here's the thing: it would have no effects! It would have no effects because when that point arrives, the main reason that makes people wake up, which is pressure, will no longer be as high on the members. I said this in a topic in the other JW forum:
It will be so good to be deceived and be inside it, that if you try to talk to someone about the rotten things in the WatchTower, she'll say: "ah... but that was a long time ago".. In the end, we'll even let them go... Because the WatchTower will be harmless to the point that we think the best thing is for them to stay there... Being deceived but happy...
From my experience and of others, many people woke up when they started to evaluate whether all the pressure on us made sense, and then we began to question whether religion might not be everything they claimed, etc., and the rest of the story we know. By removing the "pressure" factor, fewer "wake up" will occur, but at least the members will be less harmed and not harm others.
Therefore, it would be like us trying to open the eyes of a Catholic friend by talking about the inquisition, the sale of indulgences, etc., with our friend feeling happy about going to church every Sunday, praying his rosary, etc., and it's not doing him any harm. myself and to no one.
That is, ending disfellowship by restricting it to a concept like other churches do (like a reprimand without being able to participate in certain things), will make many simply PIMOs leave the religion without cutting family ties, and by leaving the sect more "peace & love", the dissidents themselves will no longer find sense in trying to expose it, and even if they still want to expose it, the impact will be little. The good side is that the members inside will do less damage to themselves and their family, the bad side is that everything bad that the WatchTower promoted against members and former members will go partially unpunished. But this story is not new, just look at the history of the Catholic Church...
Well, that's what I think, the discussion is open to contradiction...
Ps: Let me give a short introduction: I' am Brazilian and active participant of former JW's forum in my country. I'm out from the sect since 2013 but I still have family there. I have follow all the "new lights to make the sect light". And because this, I think the dissidence's work won't make much sense as the sect become lighter.