Why disfellowship must be eliminated for the survival of the WT itself

by TheScientist 109 Replies latest watchtower beliefs

• 

  TheScientist

  There’s a difference between lower baptism numbers (true) and decline in membership (not happened yet).
  

  As said by others, there are several factors that create vagueness about who is a Jehovah's Witness or not. So for me, I focus on the number of baptized people, where, according to anecdotes, the majority are children of Jehovah's Witness parents. I have already made a graph, comparing the baptism curve with the curve of the publishers and it is clear that the number of baptisms does not follow the publishers, suggesting a strong shrinkage. But you don't even need numbers. You can see that when Jehovah's Witnesses are preaching, no one cares about them, no one stops to listen to them. And I'm saying in Latin America. In the US and the EU, things could be worse. Also, when I mean decline, I mean the number of empty seats in KH. In my city, KH have been sold for a long time and congregations are reagrouped as single one. So if JWs aren't in decline, I don't know what name could be used.
• 

  TheScientist

  This chart shows the number of batized (red) x publishers (blue) from 2001 to 2022:

  https://uploaddeimagens.com.br/images/004/479/758/original/Grafico3.jpg?1684960272

  If the current JWs die, there are no more newer JWs to replace them in 1x1 rate. And WT knows that. Because this, WT is leaving the sect lighter. They need at least a 1x1 replacement rate or the sect will end in some decades.
• 

  no-zombie

  Once again I'm amazed at the denial of the death dive the Organization is in. While I tend to use the publisher numbers as my indicator (which I know is quite rubbery), the global baptismal figures work just as well to prove that the Jehovah's Witnesses faith is dying, and may actually be irrecoverable no matter what the Governing Body does. Thus I have to say it again, the age demographic pattern of the Society is the only proof that anyone needs, to see how critical their situation is. And quite frankly ... any organization (or country) that does not have a growth rate of over 2.5% it is not even keeping its population stable. I mean come on guys, this is basic high school geography stuff.

  To recover from this death dive, the Governing Body will have to do something as crazy as paying people to come to the meetings or offering free meals after the Watchtower study. That's how bad it is. But saying guys can wear beards or latter allowing you to come the Kingdom Hall in t-shirts and jeans, is almost a laughably weak response.
  
• 

  TheScientist

  I have to say it again, the age demographic pattern of the Society is the only proof that anyone needs, to see how critical their situation is. And quite frankly ... any organization (or country) that does not have a growth rate of over 2.5%
  

  You got the point! The situation is critical. And WT knows that (they are good in numbers). They will announce several new lights in a short time to stop the bleeding, but without the guarantee of good results. But there is no alternative.
• 

  slimboyfat

  The number of baptisms has declined significantly as a percentage of members since the mid 1990s. The growth rate has declined significantly during this period as well. This is different than a decline in membership.

  You can easily tell when JWs begin declining overall because the it’s when the number of members gets smaller year on year. So far this hasn’t happened apart from one year following 1975 and one year during the pandemic.

  I very much agree that the number of congregations is a crucial statistic and there has indeed been a small decline in the number of congregations in recent years. It will be interesting to see if that continues. The number of publishers has also shown a decrease in Latin America in the past few years. JWs didn’t seem to bounce back in Latin America after the pandemic as they did elsewhere. It will be interesting to see what happens here too.

  In contrast with JWs, most Protestant denominations are in steep decline in most western countries: not simply slow growth or few baptisms/converts, but actual, rapid decline in membership.
• 

  TheScientist

  As I said, the end of WT won't be in a few years but some decades (if the numbers keep as are). Today JW is not in a steep decline like Protestant churches BUT as current publishers die in the next decades, you will see a steep decline because the 1x1 replacement rate is not happening. There will be more JW dying than new JW entering the sect, making the number of publishers keep pace with the mortality rate! Here's your steep curve...
• 

  slimboyfat

  There were 269,000 baptised in 2022/3 apparently. Baptisms were lower between 2018 and 2023, yet they have still grown throughout the period.

  Since JWs are still growing, “at current trends” they will never disappear, but keep on growing slowly.

  Slow growth + time ≠ decline

  The only way they will disappear is if trends worsen, not stay the same.

  For what it’s worth I think they probably will start declining at some point. But it hasn’t happened yet.
• 

  Vidiot

  I take any numbers the Org puts out with an Everest-sized grain of salt.
• 

  Vidiot

  no-zombie - “…I'm amazed at the denial of the death dive the Organization is in…”

  More than a few XJWs are still wary of any kind of “doomsday” prediction, for obvious reasons…

  …not to mention that many are still used to the idea that the Org is strong and powerful.
• 

  joe134cd

  I agree that the JW demographic consists of mainly elderly people, for two reasons.

  (1) I heard from an orthodox PIMI relative the other day that she had attended 25 funerals in the last 12 weeks. The are dropping like flies.

  (2) Before I physically left the JWs, I had the, uh-hum, privilege of counting the meeting attendance. 2/3 of those in the hall were 50+. This was almost 11 years ago. Another thing I noticed, both in the hall, and at bigger functions, were the sparing amount of 18-30 year olds. Very slim pickings indeed. It also makes me wonder about the genetic pool of potential mates. Due to the strict rules on marriage choices and sex.

  I had a JW relative get married recently. To be honest other than the religion, they are 2 people who never should have got together. I think if they hadn’t of been JW, the whole thing would have fizzled out with been boyfriend/girlfriend. I noticed at a family function I attended that they were sitting at opposite ends the room. The father in law, although he watches what he says, isn’t too impressed with his new daughter in law. But then again, with that kind of environment, and choices, what do you expect.