Early Civilizations and Bible Chronology

by xelder 109 Replies latest watchtower beliefs

  • ninja_matty69
    ninja_matty69

    @ IWanttoBelieve

    " Well, I'm sure there's a way (I'm not a dendrochronologist so I don't want to speak out of turn, but they do have very sophisticated equipment and techniques; it is a science, after all, not a backyard hobby as you seem to think) "

    Correct you are not a dendrochronologist so why do you assume they can factor it in then? And btw dendrochronology has being giving "fixed" dates for the best part of 100 years. Computers and technology you talk about has only been around for 30 years so how did they count 3000 rings 4000 rings 5000 rings, and compare them 50 years ago? Without computer technology - it relied on human interpretation!!! ergo human error

    "but here's how they know that they didn't miss that many: C-14 dating independantly comes to the same date range on that wood. So if you wonder how many double-ring years might have been missed, the C-14 will give you that margin of error."

    Consider the following:

    "The very first dating done with radiocarbon was dating Egyptian material of known dates, to check that [the method] worked," said Andrew Shortland from Cranfield University in the UK.

    I ask you who gave the radiocarbon team "known dates"? Dendrochronology. If you new the first thing about the subject you would know that it is dendrochronology that is used to produce the calibration curve to radiocarbon dating. And yet you say if one is unsure about the specific age of a piece of 5000 year old deadwood we can use radiocarbon to confirm? Something about circular and reasoning springs to mind...

  • Leolaia
    Leolaia

    Dendrochronology isn't pseudoscience. But it is pseudoscientific to dismiss a whole science out of hand in much the same way that creationists dismiss evolutionary theory by citing Piltdown Man (which actually is a great example of how science is a self-correcting discipline). The bias that is obvious here is the bias, motivated by a conflict between one's already-held beliefs and scientific findings, that exaggerates the potential for error in order to reduce the science to a mere strawman cariacature. The cornerstone of science is sucessful prediction and replicability of results. Dendrochronology works, and the method minimizes individual variation and noise (caused by disturbance agents) through large sampling (intra-tree and across tree populations), averaging, and statistical modeling (noise reduction algorithms). Your scenario of a tree-ring chronology being wildly disturbed by local fluctuations takes none of this into account. And methods and analysis have only improved over the years, and continue to improve; that's the essence of science. So it is illogical to counter an appeal to the use of computational methods by pointing to earlier less-accurate manual counting of rings a hundred or more years ago. Calibration of 14C dating also has been improving steadily....standard calibration curves are updated every few years, and there are also more regional or local curves under development that are more fine-tuned to particular regions. The more research and study is done on this, the more accurate and reliable the techniques will become. Bear in mind also that there are also varves, ice cores, and other sources of data that can be cross-matched and used to further improve paleoclimatological modeling.

    Consider the following: "The very first dating done with radiocarbon was dating Egyptian material of known dates, to check that [the method] worked," said Andrew Shortland from Cranfield University in the UK. I ask you who gave the radiocarbon team "known dates"? Dendrochronology. If you new the first thing about the subject you would know that it is dendrochronology that is used to produce the calibration curve to radiocarbon dating. And yet you say if one is unsure about the specific age of a piece of 5000 year old deadwood we can use radiocarbon to confirm? Something about circular and reasoning springs to mind...

    This is wrong. When dedrochronological ages were used to cross-check radiocarbon dates in the late 1940s, it was as an independent test to radiocarbon's accuracy; it was not used to calibrate 14C dates. The latter are derived from radiological data (half-lives); it is not circular to later use tree-ring data to calibrate 14C dates since the original cross-checks did not contribute dendrochronologically-derived information to the 14C dates. Even today, it is standard to give results in uncalibrated BP; this must always be done because calibration curves are continually refined and improved.

    A short review article on the science of calibration: http://www.arch.unipi.it/Arias/Materiali_Web/Radiocarbonio/Kromer_2009_14C%20and%20dendrochron.pdf

  • james_woods
    james_woods

    Am I the only one who sees a complete lack of understanding of radio-carbon dating in many of these posts?

    Not to mention a total denial of clearly proven human artifacts from before 30,000 bce and earlier?

  • ninja_matty69
    ninja_matty69

    How is carbon dating calibrated?

    An excerpt from one online encyclopedia states “Dendrochronology … is used to calibrate radiocarbon ages

    It goes onto add “A benefit of dendrochronology is that it makes available specimens of once-living material accurately dated to a specific year to be used as a calibration and check of radiocarbon dating”

    Following the Twelfth Nobel Symposium entitled "Radiocarbon Variations and Absolute Chronology" the calibration curve was published in a report of the symposium (also published in Scientific American, October 1971). It shows, for each year back to about 5200 B.C.E., how many years must be added to or subtracted from the radiocarbon date to make it correspond with the tree-ring date.

    How is dendrochronology checked?

    Professor Damon at the University of Arizona said at the Symposium: "It is reassuring to have some objective comparison, for example, with another method of dating. This is, in fact, provided by carbon-14 dating of historically dated samples."8

    Is dendrochronology accurate?

    No two trees have exactly the same pattern of thick and thin rings. Missing rings have to be supplied to all the patterns, in order to fit them together. Are we to believe that the analyst’s judgment is always correct in deciding where to put the missing rings? If they were inserted in different places, is it possible that the overlap might fit better in another part of the record?

    Thus, an expert in tree-ring studies, A. E. Douglass, observed that for this reason, "10 out of 16 yellow pines from the lower levels of the Santa Rita Mountains south of Tucson have had to be discarded [in tree-ring study], and the junipers of northern Arizona have so many suspicious rings that it is almost impossible to work with them. Cypress trees also give much trouble."

    Nevertheless, this method is somewhat helpful in approximating the "days" of certain trees. The General Sherman sequoia, still growing in the High Sierras of California, is an example. Tree expert Douglass said, in the TreeRingBulletin, that evidence in this tree "supplied an estimate of the age of the tree of 3500 years." But he added, "plus or minus 500 years."—July 1946, page 5. This is a margin of error of 15%.

    Since this time others have become more reliant of the results insisting that they are conclusive to a much greater accuracy. However, Professor P. E. Damon at the University of Arizona, has said "The accuracy of tree-ring dating may be questioned by some researchers." 8

    Professor Charles W. Ferguson, also of the Laboratory of Tree Ring Research at the University of Arizona says on this point: "In some instances, 5 percent or more of the annual rings may be missing along a given radius that spans many centuries. The location of such ‘missing’ rings in a specimen is verified by cross-dating its ring pattern with the ring pattern of other trees in which the ‘missing’ ring is present." 9 Since the investigator adds these "missing rings" to his chronology, it is greater than the actual number of rings counted, by five or more years for each century. So dendrochronologists add a 5% margin of error as the actual tree samples are wrong and/or don’t properly match each other!!!

    Even more interesting is Ferguson’s comment about the possibility that a tree may produce two or three rings in a single year: "In certain species of conifers, especially those at lower elevations or in southern latitudes, one season’s growth increment may be composed of two or more flushes of growth, each of which may strongly resemble an annual ring" 9

    Ferguson confirms that no two trees match: "The master chronology for all specimens involved is unique in its year-by-year pattern; nowhere, throughout time, is precisely the same long-term sequence of wide and narrow rings repeated, because year-to-year variations in climate are never exactly the same." 9

    Wiki states “While archaeologists can use the technique to date the piece of wood and when it was felled, it may be difficult to definitively determine the age of a building or structure that the wood is in. The wood could have been reused from an older structure, may have been felled and left for many years before use, or could have been used to replace a damaged piece of wood.”

    “In areas where the climate is reasonably predictable, trees develop annual rings of different properties depending on weather, rain, temperature, soil pH, plant nutrition, CO2 concentration, etc. in different years”. If a global flood occurred nearly 4500 years ago this would be anything other than predictable. If the global flood occurred one would not reach the correct result from the data. This can be likend to a maths exam. The answer for the first question might be used as the basis for all the remaining questions. If you get the first answer wrong it does not matter if your arithmetic for all the remaining questions is perfect – the answers will all be wrong.

    But how does one know where a timber fragment found discarded on the ground or built into a structure is on the master chronology? Ferguson may give us a clue: "Occasionally, a sample from a specimen not yet dated is submitted for radiocarbon analysis. The date obtained indicates the general age of the sample, this gives a clue as to what portion of the master chronology should be scanned, and thus the tree-ring date may be identified more readily." 10

    As I have mentioned previously dendrochronology is not simply counting one tree sample. To have any relevance to dating ancient structures in the middle east hundreds and even thousands of pieces of deadwood are compared. But when they pick up a piece of battered deadwood how do they even know where to start looking. They use radiocarbon dating techniques to give them an approx. date.

    Is carbon dating accurate?

    Dr. Säve-Söderbergh, of the Institute of Egyptology at the University of Uppsala, recounted this anecdote at the symposium in Uppsala Sweden in 1969:

    "Carbon-14 dating was being discussed at a symposium on the prehistory of the Nile Valley. A famous American colleague, Professor Brew, briefly summarized a common attitude among archaeologists toward it, as follows:

    "‘If a carbon-14 date supports our theories, we put it in the main text. If it does not entirely contradict them, we put it in a footnote. And if it is completely "out of date", we just drop it.’

    “With regards the radiocarbon clock, as far back as 1976 this method of dating artifacts and finds over the past few years has been questioned by radiochemists, archaeologists and geologists. In particular discrepancies appear when dating objects from about 2000 b.c.e as the rate of radioactive carbon formation in the atmosphere has not been consistent in the past” – |Seattle Post-Intelligencer, “Radiocarbon dating wrong”, January 18 1976, p. C8|

    The radiocarbon clock looked very simple and straightforward when it was first demonstrated, but it is now known to be prone to many kinds of error. After many years’ use of the method, a conference on radiocarbon chronology and other related methods of dating was held at the afore mentioned symposium. The discussions there between chemists who practice the method and archaeologists and geologists who use the results brought to light a dozen flaws that might invalidate the dates. In the years since then, little has been accomplished to remedy these shortcomings.

    One nagging problem has always been to ensure that the sample tested has not been contaminated, either with modern (live) carbon or with ancient (dead) carbon. A bit of wood, for example, from the heart of an old tree might contain live sap. Or if that has been extracted with an organic solvent (made from dead petroleum), a trace of the solvent might be left in the portion analyzed. Old buried charcoal might be penetrated by rootlets from living plants. Or it might be contaminated with much older bitumen, difficult to remove. Live shellfish have been found with carbonate from minerals long buried or from seawater upwelling from the deep ocean where it had been for thousands of years. Such things can make a specimen appear either older or younger than it really is.

    The most serious fault in radiocarbon-dating theory is in the assumption that the level of carbon 14 in the atmosphere has always been the same as it is now. That level depends, in the first instance, on the rate at which it is produced by cosmic rays. Cosmic rays vary greatly in intensity at times, being largely affected by changes in the earth’s magnetic field. Magnetic storms on the sun sometimes increase the cosmic rays a thousandfold for a few hours. The earth’s magnetic field has been both stronger and weaker in past millenniums. And since the explosion of nuclear bombs, the worldwide level of carbon 14 has increased substantially.

    On the other hand, the proportion is affected by the quantity of stable carbon in the air. Great volcanic eruptions add measurably to the stable carbon-dioxide reservoir, thus diluting the radiocarbon. In the past century, man’s burning of fossil fuels, especially coal and oil, at an unprecedented rate has permanently increased the quantity of atmospheric carbon dioxide.

    "Few archaeologists who have concerned themselves with absolute chronology are innocent of having sometimes applied this method, and many are still hesitant to accept carbon-14 dates without reservation." 18

    Another said later "Archeologists [are coming] to have second thoughts about the immediate usefulness of radiocarbon age determinations simply because they come out of ‘scientific’ laboratories. The more that confusion mounts in regard to which method, which laboratory, which half-life value, and which calibration is most reliable, the less we archeologists will feel slavishly bound to accept any ‘date’ offered to us without question."

    Among the more obvious possibilities of error in radiocarbon dating is the loss in integrity of the sample. (Assumption 3) If a sample is altered by contact with, or contaminated by inclusion of, material that contains older or younger radiocarbon, the analysis cannot give the right answer. But the practical archaeologist has learned what to do about it when a sample comes back from the laboratory with a date different from what he expected. As Dr. Evzen Neustupný, of the Archaeological Institute of the Czech Academy of Sciences, told the symposium: "Contamination of samples by either modern or ancient carbon can often be clearly discerned if the result of a measurement deviates considerably from the expected value." 2

    To paraphrase his words, he does not recognize the contamination of the sample before he sends it in, but when he looks at it again, with the unpalatable answer attached, he can see clearly that it was contaminated.

    The same expert also pointed out, relative to the importance of selecting contemporaneous samples (Assumption 4): "It should be clear, although many archaeologists seem to ignore it, that radiocarbon measurements date the age of the organic tissue of the sample, i.e., the time when it originated. The tissue of a sample dating some historical (or prehistoric) event might have been biologically dead for several decades or even centuries when it was used by ancient man. This applies to wood for building, charcoal from hearths, and most other kinds of materials." 2

    This is a point that the reader would do well to keep in mind when he sees a news item that radiocarbon dating of a piece of charcoal dug up from a cave/pyramid somewhere proves that the men lived there so-and-so many thousand years ago. There are places today where a camper could pick up firewood that had grown hundreds, even thousands, of years ago (if you do not think so tell me again where the dendrochronologists are getting their wood from!!!)

    One of the questions concerns the very first assumption. How sure is it that the half-life of carbon 14 is correct? Note the following comment by two experts from the radiocarbon laboratory of the University of Pennsylvania:

    "What causes the most worry about the veracity of these half-life determinations is the fact that they all depend upon the same basic methods—namely, the absolute calibration of a gas counter for determination of the specific disintegration rate, and the subsequent mass spectrographic measurement of the exact quantity of C-14 that was counted. In the first phase there is the difficulty of obtaining an absolute calibration of a gas counter, and in the latter there is the problem of precise dilution and introduction of the ‘hot’ C-14 into the mass spectrograph. An error caused by adsorption of C-14 on the walls of the containers may be prevalent and of roughly the same magnitude in all of the half-life determinations. Clearly, there is need for an entirely independent approach and technique before one can say with certainty what is the true value of the half-life of C-14." 3

    Libby himself was aware of this limitation in the accuracy of half-life. In 1952, writing of the vital importance of measuring absolute disintegration rates, he said: "It is to be hoped that further measurements of the half-life of radiocarbon will be made, preferably by entirely different techniques." 4 As yet this hope has not been realized.

    What about the constancy of cosmic rays? (Assumption 2a) Observations have shown that they are not at all constant. Several factors are now known that cause large fluctuations in the cosmic rays.

    One of these is the strength of the earth’s magnetic field. This affects the cosmic rays, which are mostly protons (charged nuclei of hydrogen atoms), by deflecting the less energetic particles away from the atmosphere. When the earth’s magnetic field becomes stronger, fewer cosmic rays reach the earth and less radiocarbon is produced. When the earth’s magnetic field becomes weaker, more cosmic rays reach the earth and more radiocarbon is produced.

    Studies indicate that the magnetic field doubled in strength from about 5,500 years ago to about 1,000 years ago, and is now decreasing again. This effect alone can account for the needed correction of almost 1,000 years in the older dates.

    Solar phenomena also cause large changes. The sun’s magnetic field extends far out into space, even beyond the earth’s orbit. Its strength changes, although not very regularly, along with the sunspot cycle of about eleven years, and this also affects the number of cosmic rays reaching the earth.

    Then there are the solar flares. These great streams of incandescent gas burst out of the sun’s surface sporadically and eject enormous numbers of protons. Those that reach the earth produce carbon 14. This makes for an unpredictable surplus in the supply. A table and a graph in the report show the production of carbon 14 from typical flares. On February 23, 1956, there was a flare that produced as much carbon 14 in a few hours as in a whole year of average cosmic radiation. It is obviously impossible to include this kind of effect in the corrections to the radiocarbon clock, for no one knows whether the flares in past millenniums were more or less active than they are now.

    The intensity of cosmic rays entering the solar system from the galaxy is another little-known factor. Geochemical scientists have tried, by measuring the very faint radioactivities of various elements produced in meteorites by cosmic rays, to get some idea of average intensities in the past. However, the results do not help much in giving the desired assurance of constancy over the past 10,000 years.

    The radiocarbon theory would be in a stronger position (though still not invulnerable) with respect to the above objections if it could be shown that the radiocarbon is today decaying as fast as it is being formed. (Assumption 2c) If this is found not to be true, then the assumption of a constant inventory of carbon 14 is also proved untrue, and the assumed constant activity of radiocarbon is put on a precarious tightrope between two mooring posts that may be rising independently of each other.

    The production rate is very difficult to calculate. Libby attempted to do this with the best data available up to 1952. He found a production corresponding to about nineteen atoms of radiocarbon per second for every gram of carbon in the reservoir. This was somewhat higher than his measurement of sixteen disintegrations per second. But in view of the complexity of the problem and the rough estimate that had to be made of so many factors, he regarded this as agreeing well enough with his assumptions.

    Seventeen years later, with better data and better understanding of the process, can this be calculated more precisely? The experts at the symposium could say nothing more definite than that the radiocarbon is being produced at a rate probably between 75 percent and 161 percent of the rate at which it is decaying. The lower figure would mean that the amount of radiocarbon is presently decreasing; the higher figure, that it is increasing. The measurement gives no assurance that it is constant, as the radiocarbon theory demands. Again, recourse is taken to the view that "the relative constancy of the C-14 activity in the past suggests that [this ratio] must be confined to a much narrower range of values." 5 So one assumption is used to justify another.

    Not only the inventory of carbon 14, but also the stable carbon 12 in the exchange reservoir, must be constant to keep the radiocarbon clock synchronized. (Assumption 2b) Have we good reason to believe that this assumption is valid?

    Since there is about sixty times as much carbon in the ocean as in the atmosphere, we are concerned chiefly about that oceanic reservoir. This point came up for discussion at the Uppsala meeting, where the consensus was that what they call an "Ice Age" could cause major perturbations. Libby had pointed out this possibility in 1952:

    "The possibility that the amount of carbon in the exchange reservoir has altered appreciably in the last 10,000 or 20,000 years turns almost entirely on the question as to whether the glacial epoch, which, as we will see later, appears to reach into this period, could have affected the volume and mean temperatures of the oceans appreciably." 6

    Mention of the volume of the oceans immediately raises in the mind of the Bible student the possibility of major dislocations in the radiocarbon clock at the time of the global deluge of Noah’s day, nearly 4,500 years ago.

    Don’t forget even the father of evolution Darwin himself talks about clear evidence, clearer than a the fact that a burnt down house once burned, that water once covered the highlands in Britain and the wide open spaces of America on page 269. He continues this line of thought and on pages 274 and 275 explains that this recent mini ice age resulted in water covering much of the globe and was actually “simultaneous throughout the world”. He speaks of “huge boulders transported far from their parent source”. From memory he suggested this must have occurred in the past 10,000 years.

    The oceans must certainly have been much greater in extent and depth after the Flood. This in itself would not increase the amount of carbonate in the ocean; it would merely dilute it. The amounts of carbon 14 and carbon 12, as well as their ratio, which determines the specific activity, would not have been changed merely by the fall of the water. However, the increased volume would give the ocean the capacity ultimately to carry a much larger load of dissolved carbonate.

    And adjustments in the crust of the earth would be expected because of the greatly increased weight of water on the ocean basins. This pressure would be greater than that over the continents. It would push the underlying plastic mantle away from the ocean beds toward the continents, thus lifting them to new heights. This would expose rock surfaces to increased erosion, including the limestones in the beds of shallow seas that geologists show in low-lying continental areas in their maps of Pliocene times.

    So, beginning shortly after the Flood, the oceanic reservoir of carbonate would steadily increase until it reached the concentration we have today. Then, rather than assume that the carbonate reservoir has been constant, we should consider the possibility that it has been gradually increasing over the past 4,350 years.

    How would the Flood affect the carbon 14? Since the Bible indicates that the water that fell in the Deluge was previously suspended in some way above the earth’s atmosphere, it must have impeded the entrance of cosmic rays and hence the production of radiocarbon. If uniformly distributed in a spherical shell, it could have prevented completely the formation of radiocarbon. However, it is not necessary to assume this; the water canopy might have been thicker over the equatorial parts than over the poles, thus admitting cosmic rays at low intensities. In any case, the removal of this shield by its falling to the surface would increase the rate of producing carbon 14.

    Thus, we should expect that, after the Flood, both the radioactive carbon 14 and the stable carbon 12 in the oceanic reservoir would begin to increase rapidly. Remember that it is the ratio of carbon 14 to carbon 12 that fixes the specific activity. So, depending on just how quickly the erosion of the land added carbonate to the seas, the activity might either increase or decrease. Indeed, it would be possible, though not probable, that the growth of one would just balance the growth of the other; in that case, the radiocarbon clock would have continued to run uniformly right through the Flood. Libby pointed out the possibility that such a fortuitous balancing could bring about the "agreement between the predicted and observed radiocarbon contents of organic materials of historically known age." 7 But he did not prefer this explanation.

    Since the inventories of carbon 14 and carbon 12 are independent of each other, it is possible to postulate values that would account for the excessive ages reported on old samples. For example, if we assume that the specific activity before the Flood was about half its present value, all pre-Flood specimens would appear to be about 6,000 years older than they really are. This would also be true for a while afterward, but with a rapid erosion of carbonate in the centuries after the Flood, the error would be reduced. It appears that by about 1500 B.C.E. the activity had approached its present value, since radiocarbon ages seem to be nearly right since then.

    These are some of the recognized problems that beset the radiocarbon chronology. There are others that have hardly been considered, and possibly some yet unthought of. These are the reasons why the theory set forth many years ago is no longer tenable. It is just not possible, merely by measuring the radiocarbon in a sample and comparing it with the present-day activity, to tell with any assurance the age of the sample. As we have seen some have tried to support their conclusions with dendrochronology.

    However, bearing in mind our review of dendrochronology above, it may well be that neither of these scientific chronologies are as independent as their supporters would like to believe. Perhaps they are depending on circular reasoning. Do the radiocarbon workers believe their dating is correct because the tree-ring laboratories verify it? And are the tree-ring researchers satisfied that their master chronology is correct because the radiocarbon dates fit on it? As long as they are within the channel marked by historical buoys, they both steer a reasonable course, but in the misty depths beyond, they sail away with no constraint but to keep one another in sight.

    Lest you think this is an unfair judgment, just took at some of the crosswinds and countercurrents that the radiocarbon pilot has to face:

    (1) The half-life of radiocarbon is not as certainly known as the scientists would like.

    (2) The cosmic rays, never steady, may have been much stronger or weaker in the past 10,000 years than is generally believed.

    (3) Solar flares change the level of radiocarbon—how much in the past nobody knows.

    (4) The earth’s magnetic field changes fitfully on a short time scale, and so radically over thousands of years that even the north and south poles are reversed. Scientists do not know why.

    (5) Radiocarbon scientists admit that an "Ice Age" could have affected the radiocarbon content of the air, by changing the volume and temperature of the ocean water, but they are not sure how great these changes were.

    (6) They ignore all the evidence, both scientific and Biblical, for a worldwide deluge nearly forty-five centuries ago, so they do not recognize the drastic effects that such a cataclysmic event must have had on the samples they measure from that period.

    (7) Mixing of radiocarbon between the atmosphere and ocean can be affected by changes in climate or weather, but no one knows how much.

    (8) Mixing of radiocarbon between the surface layers and the deep ocean has an effect, very imperfectly understood.

    (9) The count of tree rings, used to calibrate the radiocarbon clock, is cast into doubt by the possibility of greatly different climatic conditions in past ages.

    (10) The radiocarbon content of old trees may be changed by diffusion of sap and resin into the heartwood.

    (11) Buried samples can either gain or lose radiocarbon through leaching by groundwater or by contamination.

    (12) It is never certain that the sample selected to date an event truly corresponds with it. It is only more or less probable, in the light of the archaeological evidence at the site.

    This is by no means a complete listing of the pitfalls that beset radiocarbon dating, but it should be enough to give a person pause before he simply believes what wiki or some scientist somewhere tells him.

    If the evolutionists’ ideas about man’s having been around for a million years were correct, surely we would expect to find a much larger number of artifacts dated back 10,000 or 20,000 years, within the range of carbon 14. Why do nearly all the specimens fall within just the past 6,000 years? We do not expect a scientific measurement to speak with the authority of a trusted eyewitness. It can only offer circumstantial evidence. But statistically speaking, the radiocarbon clock throws the weight of its testimony overwhelmingly on the side of the creation account, and against the evolution hypothesis, of man’s origin.

    A recent development in radiocarbon dating is a method for counting not just the beta rays from the atoms that decay but all the carbon-14 atoms in a small sample. This is particularly useful in dating very old specimens in which only a tiny fraction of the carbon 14 is left. Out of a million carbon-14 atoms, only one, on the average, will decay every three days. This makes it quite tedious, when measuring old samples, to accumulate enough counts to distinguish the radioactivity from the cosmic-ray background.

    But if we can count all the carbon-14 atoms now, without waiting for them to decay, we can gain a millionfold in sensitivity. This is accomplished by bending a beam of positively charged carbon atoms in a magnetic field to separate the carbon 14 from the carbon 12. The lighter carbon 12 is forced into a tighter circle, and the heavier carbon 14 is admitted through a slit into a counter.

    This method, although more complicated and more expensive than the beta-ray-counting method, has the advantage that the amount of material needed for a test is a thousand times less. It opens up the possibility of dating rare ancient manuscripts and other artifacts from which a sample of several grams that would be destroyed in testing just cannot be had. Now such articles can be dated with just milligrams of sample.

    One suggested application of this would be to date the Shroud of Turin, which some believe Jesus’ body was wrapped in for burial. If radiocarbon dating was to show that the cloth is not that old, it would confirm the suspicions of doubters that the shroud is a hoax. Until now, the archbishop of Turin has refused to donate a sample for dating because it would take too large a piece. But with the new method, one square centimeter would be enough to determine whether the material dates from the time of Christ or only from the Middle Ages.

    In any event, attempts to extend the time range have little significance as long as the greater problems remain unsolved. The older the sample is, the more difficult it is to ensure the complete absence of slight traces of younger carbon. And the farther we try to go beyond the few thousand years for which we have a reliable calibration, the less we know about the atmospheric level of carbon 14 in those ancient times.

    Several other methods have been studied for dating events in the past. Some of these are related indirectly to radioactivity, such as the measurement of fission tracks and radioactive halos. Some involve other processes, such as the deposition of varves (layers of sediment) by streams flowing from a glacier and the hydration of obsidian artifacts.

    The efforts to strengthen the mutual support of the two chronologies are plagued by another problem that occasioned considerable discussion among the experts. Even in radiocarbon analysis of those samples of bristlecone pine that now serve as the basis for all other radiocarbon dates, the possibility of sample alteration must be considered. It is known that inorganic substances, such as the limestone of shellfish and the carbonate in bones, are very susceptible to exchange with dissolved carbonates, either older or younger. For this reason they are almost useless for dating. Organic substances, such as cellulose, are regarded as unlikely to exchange. The live sap in a tree can be washed out of the dead wood, but if it has been circulating through the wood for centuries or millenniums, can we be sure that it has not partly replaced the decaying carbon 14?

    Unlike the sap, resin is difficult to remove. Ferguson has referred to "the highly resinous nature" of bristlecone pine wood. 12 The experts agreed that resin from younger wood moves into the older wood, where it can cause errors. "The diffusion inward of the resin certainly is a reasonable result." 13 Also, "This resin problem is important, particularly as the correction increases as one goes further into the tree." 13 In one experiment, the extracted resin was apparently 400 years younger than the wood.

    However, the experts disagreed as to how effective their chemical treatments are. One said that boiling the wood successively in acid and alkali "removes all of the resin." 14 Another said: "In my opinion, the resins in bristlecone pines cannot be removed completely by treatment with inorganic chemicals." 14 But when they use organic chemical solvents, they have to worry about whether the solvent has been completely removed afterward, because just a little modern carbon from it could apparently rejuvenate a sample of ancient wood. Of course, they work conscientiously to exclude all these errors, but are they completely successful? How sure can we be?

    Examples of changes in dating:

    In an article in the Daily Telegraph entitled “Earliest known European died in Torquay” dated Thursday 03 November 2011 regarding a fragment of a jawbone said to be from an ancestor of homo sapiens the article reported how the previous date for the sample given was 35000 years old. It concluded with the reports from re testing of the fragment which indicated the previous dating techniques were in error by about 15%.

    In an article in the New York Times entitled “Errors are feared in carbon dating” dated 31 May 1990 reported how Dr. Alan Zindler, a professor of geology and his colleagues “at the Lamont-Doherty Geological Laboratory of Columbia University at Palisades, N.Y., reported today in the British journal Nature that some estimates of age based on carbon analyses were wrong by as much as 3,500 years. They arrived at this conclusion by comparing age estimates obtained using two different methods - analysis of radioactive carbon in a sample and determination of the ratio of uranium to thorium in the sample'' . Thus the dating error of the carbon dating was around 15%. It continued “scientists have long recognized that carbon dating is subject to error because of a variety of factors, including contamination by outside sources of carbon… The group theorizes that large errors in carbon dating result from fluctuations in the amount of carbon 14 in the air”.

    When scientists first carried out radiocarbon dating of egyptian sites in 1984 their radiocarbon dates suggested the history (using Cambridge Ancient History dates) was out by some 374 years! In 1995 when the same team revisited and took further samples the new radio carbon dates were 200 years younger than their initial carbon tests i.e. only 100 to 200 years than the Cambridge Ancient History dates.

    The Egyptologist Kate Spence published her thoughts on the Egyptian rulers ascension dates in December 2000 and recommended due to her astronomical observations the pyramids must have been built around 74 years later than the commonly accepted dates for the construction of the pyramids.

    Before radiocarbon, astronomical observations, and other modern dating techniques were introduced the various secular historians over the past few centuries have dated the Egyptian dynasties at various dates ranging from between 1000 years younger than current to 2000 years older than current.

    After chopping “Prometheus” (also known as WPN-114) down and carrying out laboratory tests on a cross section a ring count was conducted by Currey giving an estimated age of 4844. Donald Graybill, also of the University of Arizona, increased the count a few years later to 4862. Other sources have sought to add years to the scientists count in case they missed some and it is not uncommon to see such reports suggesting that the tree had in fact lived for 5000 years. This is an error of nearly 4% between different dendrochronologists opinions.

    Numbered References:

    1. RadiocarbonDating, by W. F. Libby, 1952, p. 72.

    2. NobelSymposium12:RadiocarbonVariationsandAbsoluteChronology, 1970, p. 25.

    3. E. K. Ralph and H. N. Michael, Archaeometry, Vol. 10, 1967, p. 7.

    4. RadiocarbonDating, p. 41.

    5. NobelSymposium12, p. 522.

    6. RadiocarbonDating, p. 29.

    7. Ibid., p. 32.

    8. NobelSymposium12, p. 576.

    9. C. W. Ferguson, Science, Vol. 159, Feb. 23, 1968, p. 840.

    10. Ibid., p. 845.

    11. Ibid., p. 842.

    12. Ibid., p. 839.

    13. NobelSymposium12, p. 272.

    14. Ibid., p. 273.

    15. Ibid., p. 167.

    16. Ibid., p. 216.

    17. Ibid., p. 219.

    18. Ibid., p. 35.

  • Leolaia
    Leolaia
    If a global flood occurred nearly 4500 years ago this would be anything other than predictable. If the global flood occurred one would not reach the correct result from the data.
    Mention of the volume of the oceans immediately raises in the mind of the Bible student the possibility of major dislocations in the radiocarbon clock at the time of the global deluge of Noah’s day, nearly 4,500 years ago.
    How would the Flood affect the carbon 14? Since the Bible indicates that the water that fell in the Deluge was previously suspended in some way above the earth’s atmosphere, it must have impeded the entrance of cosmic rays and hence the production of radiocarbon.
    Thus, we should expect that, after the Flood, both the radioactive carbon 14 and the stable carbon 12 in the oceanic reservoir would begin to increase rapidly. Remember that it is the ratio of carbon 14 to carbon 12 that fixes the specific activity.

    Look, if you need to appeal to a mythological non-historical global Flood in order to discredit overwhelming scientific evidence, you are doing pseudoscience.

  • King Solomon
    King Solomon

    Konceptual99 said:

    "I for one wish the society would be far more open with seeking to harmonise established scientific theories (and I mean theory rather than hypothosis) with the Bible instead of ignoring the points raised and just appealing to blind faith."

    That is the LAST thing the Society wants to do, as they've already gone down the road of denial and obsfucation: they know the evidence is SOOO strongly against their position that all they have left to fight with is a bag of rhetorical tricks, not facts.

    The evidence of their dirty tricks is to be found by scrutinizing their literature (perhaps alongside some who knows evolution; that wasn't even needed, as much as an understanding of the basics of logic/rhetoric). I did that last year for a JW family member, using that WT-sized pamphlet attempting to disprove evolution (I can't remember it's name: sorry). The first thing I noticed was the rampant use of cherry-picking of quotes, which to their credit, they DID disclose in footnotes that the person they quoted believed in evolution.

    However, that's still intellectually dishonest, using quotes from scientists who don't agree with the conclusion, in order to support their argument. It's a fraudulent appeal to authority. They're counting on the average reader to not look at the footnotes, let alone read them and understand the implications!

    Richard Dawkins also pointed out in one of his books (God Delusion, i think?) of the WT's brazen use of quotes from naturalist Richard Attenborough, a renown naturalist who believes in evolution. Attenborough produces many shows for PBS, but the Society is counting on JWs not watching Worldly TV shows to see their quote-mining tricks. They tried to make him out as doubting evolution, when that is not the case. So he's good enough to use an an expert, but apparently not enough to listen to his conclusion....

    The proof is out there, but they're betting on the laziness of R&F to dig (hence the discouraging of independent research), or having the strength to actually act on what they find out (under threat of shunning).

  • Quendi
    Quendi

    bookmarking

  • EntirelyPossible
    EntirelyPossible

    Look, if you need to appeal to a mythological non-historical global Flood in order to discredit overwhelming scientific evidence, you are doing pseudoscience.

    I am going to steal that line if you don't mind.

  • Etude
    Etude

    I consider this a very interesting discussion. Leolaia and ninja_matty69, you present a lot of compelling arguments on which I had to think about. ninja_matty69, your post of about 3 hours ago is epic. It also reiterates for me a plaguing question. I once asked an archaeologist I served on jury duty with how accurate C14 dating was. I mentioned my concern about how the carbon got into the specimen in the first place, especially in formerly living organisms (not just layers of rock). I asked how we were able to determine if the C14 being measured was the C14 absorbed while the tree was alive or if the C14 seeped into the tree years later after it fell and was inundated with water and C14-laden air or was deposited along with other minerals in some dinosaur bone before either was petrified. That concerned me because we know that C14 is produced in the air in different concentrations throughout the years, depending on solar activity and weather conditions. Her answer was: "I'm sure they calibrate that somehow."

    Well needless to say, that was not a very satisfying answer. The only thing that is for sure about C14 is that it has a specific rate of decay or half life. What I've gathered from the discussion so far is that, while C14 dating is not meant to be completely accurate (given the percentage variances in the way it's calibrated) and serves only as a ballpark marker, we do make assumptions about how it's calibrated (that the C14 absorbed must have been constant or at least the same as in other sites tested; that the sample tested is uniform compared to the rest of the object being tested; that the percentage variance in different objects tested or the average of different readings is preferable than a single reading that can be accurately established. (http://www.nytimes.com/1990/05/31/us/errors-are-feared-in-carbon-dating.html?pagewanted=all&src=pm) I'm not saying that we (especially scientists) don't have the leniency to make those assumptions. However, if we do, we need to be willing to concede that the reading is less than 100% accurate (even if it's just close enough) or that it may be sufficiently wrong to not count.

    Leolaia, I think your citation of ninja_matty69's reference to the global flood might be a bit misplaced. The key word is "IF". I hope ninja_matty69 is not asserting to the Biblical flood as an actual occurrence, even though it serves as a good scenario for what is believed is a representation of major historical floods (though not global) throughout history. The point is that if there was a significant "cloud cover" in our atmosphere (something that is also scientifically suggested at different times in our geological history), the C14 rate would have been different and would have affected samples greatly and the flooding might well have contaminated a lot of specimens.

    Please carry on. I know next to nothing about this subject and would like more information. Yet, to refer to one of the original arguments and assertions regarding biblical history, I'm surprised no one has mentioned (unless I missed it) the newest references regarding the likely history of the Hebrews and why they forged (created and faked) an account (the old testament) to obscure their humble beginnings and add to their own legitimacy. One recent investigation depicts Israel as an "intellectual construct". It also points to other "cigarette-sized" scrolls found (beside the Dead Sea scrolls), which indicate sufficient differences in "old testament" accounts to signal the lore and poetic origins of the Old Testament. (http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/ancient/bibles-buried-secrets.html)

    In addition, there are other indications that the ancient Hebrews did and continued to worship multiple gods after a time when the Biblical account suggests otherwise. The evidence presented in the Nova show "Quest for Salomon's Mines" suggest the beginnings of the Hebrews in the desert cauldron of the Dead Sea Rift Valley. I like that a more accurate picture is emerging from these discoveries that put the legitimacy of unconfirmed writings in the proper light.

  • Miles3
    Miles3

    I mentioned my concern about how the carbon got into the specimen in the first place, especially in formerly living organisms (not just layers of rock). I asked how we were able to determine if the C14 being measured was the C14 absorbed while the tree was alive or if the C14 seeped into the tree years later after it fell and was inundated with water and C14-laden air or was deposited along with other minerals in some dinosaur bone before either was petrified.

    The good thing about living organisms is that the carbon that makes up the organism is all assimilated while the organism is alive. When the organism is dead, the body doesn't build any new elements, and thus all the C14 used in the body structure dates from the time the organism was alive.

    Your archeologist answered that way because you do not need to specialise in C14 theory to be an archeologist, the same way you do not need to study quantum physics to operate a laser device. The fact she didn't study that aspect doesn't mean the explanation is not there (and constantly invesigated). It's better she's a good specialist in her narrow field of archeology, that being a generalist that knows a bit of everything but don't specialise enough to contribute. And to be frank, except for a small group of JW and fundamentalists, C14 datation is trivial and not something she'll ever use. The science is solid and has been confirmed by many other datation methods.

    As far as the cloud cover, there's no trace of that for the period covered by C14 (up to 60000 years ago IIRC, something really really not ancient compared to the age of the earth). Some fundamentalists pick up citations of scientists that mention is for a period far more remote, and neglect to mention the period in question. Then we end up with people mislead to think that such a cloud cover would mess with C14 datation, when it doesn't because C14 isn't used for the periods concerned (hundreds of millions of years ago, if not billions). We also have records of the climate going back for the whole period of homo sapiens, thanks to south pole ice cores, other ice cores from glaciers, cores from swamps, and tree trunks.

    Knowing the global temperatures, being able to check the C14 rates through multiple methods, and comparing C14 results with other datation methods independent from C14 (some have been cited) let us have a very strong confidence on C14 dates. It doesn't mean there won't be isolated cases where the C14 content has been altered, but when you collect hundreds of human remains from hundreds of different places around the world, and asides from a few isolated ones they tell you the same dates, that are consistent with other datation methods, you can't explain it away.

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