It'd put it at 50-50 as to whether Putin presses the big red button.
Putin rules by fear and force.
He invaded Ukraine rather lightly at first, and mainly spared civilians in combat areas. He was hoping that the fear of an invading army would make the Ukrainians wave the white flag.
This didn't work, the Ukrainians have fought back and dug in. So now Putin is bombing indiscriminately, rolling in thermobaric weapons and a 40-mile convoy of tanks. He's now using force, because the initial attempt at using fear didn't work.
Putin has spoken about putting his nuclear weapons into 'combat mode'. He's also said that if the West impedes his military operations, they'll see something they've never seen in their history. This is a clear warning/threat, and an attempt at using fear.
Disturbingly, our politicians have so far dismissed this.
The longer our politicians cock a deaf 'un, the more Putin will consider the other option.
