If you're expecting a mass exodus anytime soon, FORGET ABOUT IT!

by nowwhat? 110 Replies latest watchtower beliefs

  • Vidiot

    Morph, do you... somehow... want the WTS to continue...?

    'Cause - and no offense, buddy, but - the way you insist that "the Org is still going strong" really is starting to sound like it borders on decline/collapse denial.

    Hell, if I didn't - truly - know better, I'd almost mistake it for WT loyalism (not meant as a smartass remark, BTW).

    You do know that historically, all authoritarian regimes eventually go the way of the dodo, right?

    Besides, maybe some of us need to believe the Org will die.

  • pepperheart

    If the watchtower is not short of money why dont they use the money they saved from not printing and shipping 50 million magazines a month to printing foreign lanuage bibles ie spanish etc.There is a vast difference from giving awakes out to the general public to giving bibles out to commited jws

  • _Morpheus

    Everyone remain calm! I have not now nor have i for many years now given one single damn as to whether or not the watchtower bible and track society “collapses” or not.

    I do however, care about a realistic assessment of facts. Understanding reality is necessary to deal with reality.

    The org still grows. Notice the facts i presented earlier:

    2016- 8,340,847 1.8% increase

    2017- 8,457,107 1.4% increase

    Incontrovertable evidance of growth. Growth is the opposite of collapse. As i have also said, ad nauseum, the org will indeed one day collapse. All things die. Every country, every government, every institution, every planet, star and the universe itself will one day collapse.

    But lets be realistic about when. It aint today, as slim just claimed. It wont be tomorrow. It will be one day. Look at what truly is not what you wish it to be. This is the path to inner peace.

    Your welcome.

  • alanv

    Morpheus, I havent read all the posts but one thing is for sure. Any increase is not coming form the rich and well informed counties. Last year more people left the org in Europe as a whole than were recruited. Their main contributions need to come from the rich countries and if they are not increasing that means donations are going to become harder to get.

  • slimboyfat

    Doubting Bro, I explained earlier in the thread what I meant by collapse, using comparisons with other religious groups. Collpase could proceed along a path similar to the Methodists in England. They grew until the middle of the 20th century when they had nearly 1 million members. They began steep decline in the 1950s and now there are very few left. It has been predicted the church will close altogether by around 2035. See the chart of their decline which is about one third of the way down this page:


    On this path JWs are around about where the Methodists were in 1950. So in that scenario decline would be steep and they could disappear altogether within 80 years or so.

    Or collapse could be quicker than that. More along the lines of the Worldwide Church of God. Numbers are more difficult to chart in this case than the Methodists, but indications are that the decline was even more dramatic. In the 1980s circulation of The Plain Truth was greater than the Watchtower and it was a worldwide church. Then the founder died, they had scandals and financial crisis, and the church splintered and reformed. There is barely anything of this church left. People who say the Worldwide Church of God still exists - I wonder if they’ve ever been to any of their services, or spoken to any of their members? I have. There are hardly any of them left, they are all older people, and there is no sense in which this church has any future at all. In Scotland there was once hundreds of members in lots of churches. Now they have a handful of churches left with a handful of people in each. We’re talking about a reduction from probably over 1000 members to less then 50 within a couple of decades. If that isn’t collpase then I don’t know what is. I noticed similar figures and a reduction of around 90% in census data recently too. That’s the sort if scenario I’m talking about. People who say “the Worldwide Church of God” is still around don’t really know what they’re talking about, in my opinion. There may be traces of the church left at this stage, that is all.

    Morph, how can you say JWs are still growing when census figures show they are in decline? You cite growth in Watchtower publisher numbers, but it’s worth noting that this growth is contradicted by the census numbers in Canada and Australia. It’s also worth noting that Watchtower doesn’t even release average publisher numbers any more. Instead they publish peak numbers, which we know is generally the August figure where elders report everyone in the congregation, and sometimes put in double reports. So getting an accurate picture from the peak figure is doubtful, and the average figure is no longer available. Plus even the reported peak numbers are down in Europe. And number of congregations is down in the United States, Germany, Japan and elsewhere.

  • LongHairGal


    I think any so-called “growth” is in third-world areas...and this doesn’t even impress me because I suspect some desperate individuals there think the JW religion will make their material circumstances better!!

    If there is growth in the U.S. it is miniscule and overshadowed by many who are leaving in addition to the faithful elderly (big contributor$) who are passing away. Witness the selling of halls and merging congregations. There is no denying this.

    As one poster said: the religion might die by a thousand cuts rather than by any “mass exodus”.

  • slimboyfat

    Yes it’s clear that third world growth is a problem for WT now that they no longer charge for the literature, so they’re actively working to curb the areas of growth that remain, by stopping sending missionaries and not expanding branches in poorer countries.

    Another question for Morph: if Watchtower is doing just fine, and transitioning from old style publishing into a sophisticated online relgion, then how come even the quality of their online video dramas is in decline? Broadcasting cancelled in December and January, and so on?

  • _Morpheus

    Lol oh slim.... your making a career of misquoting me. I

    never said just fine.

    I never said sophisticated online religion.

    I have said that print is dying and rhey are making adjustments. I have said they are no longer in their hayday and cant afford to build or expand without regard for money anymore. They are not what they once were.

    Now let me quote you accurately: yesterday you said they are right now collapsing. Thats what you said on this very thread one page ago. A few min ago you said they may be around 80 more years.

    You are the playing a high level game of “hedge your bets”. No matter what happens you have position that covers it.

    And i can totally accept that any growth is coming from small or perhaps underdeveloped countries. I dont know or really care where it is.

    And again with the census? Ive already addressed in detail why jw’s may not self report to the government. Their organization instills fear of satans world that will anyday now (if they dont collapse) turn on them. Of course they dont self report. Also also, canada is one country. How in the world can i know or have insight on what the census in Canada means for world wide jw populations? Neither can you, my uk based friend.

  • joe134cd

    In 50 years time. I can see a world membership of 5 million. All physical buildings sold and money in off shore bank accounts. Perhaps a few assembly halls spotted around the world in main centers that the faithful attend when they can get to it. The religion will be totally on line with all broadcasts coming from the USA and perhaps a subscription fee to access it.

  • ttdtt

    Yet with all the issue the WT faces, they still get a quarter of a million converts a year.

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