Cutback prediction

by slimboyfat 204 Replies latest members private

• 

  cofty

  the contributions that traditionally were sent in by Jdrones, were perhaps offset slightly by the costs of producing/shipping the literatrash, plus maintaining an array of satellite locations to support this, plus the logistical and housekeeping support to the large amount of people needed to print/ship their garbage. - Redvip

  All of the costs involved in producing and shipping millions of items of literature were factored into the price and the end result was a massive income. It was likely a small profit per item but the volume was huge and the labour was relatively inexpensive - "stack 'em high and sell 'em cheap". In addition they had donations from the rank and file.

  When they stopped charging for the literature they naively asked the r&f to donate the cost of the magazines in addition to their regular donations. Of course that failed miserably.

  Now they have lost the vast profits from printing millions of books and magazines and have to rely on donations. Thus all the real estate shenanigans and cost cutting.

  Your argument is like saying a factory that made its money by making widgets at a profit, is better off not making widgets because they no longer have to pay wages or shipping costs.
• 

  cofty

  They sell hopes and dreams of a better future and special access to god(s) now. Every religion in history has the same model. They all manage to make enough money to hang around. So will the jw’s. - Morpheus

  Actually other religions only survive either by tithing and/or significant commercial dealings. The Church of England is one of the biggest shareholders in many high street retail businesses and are significant landowners. Individual CofE churches are struggling very badly to survive. The English countryside is littered with former churches converted into nice holiday homes.

  When I was in the Baptist Church ours was only of many that lived from month-to-month always wondering how the stipend was going to be paid. Tithing was never mentioned. While I was there the pastor had to be let go for financial reasons.

  I do not believe the cult will tithe. It would devastate their oldest and most loyal members.
• 

  OnTheWayOut

  _Morpheus
  Cofty, where i respectfully disagree with you slim and others is on the “business” model of the cult...
  I never viewed their model as one of a printing company

  I will have to differ with you here. It's even in their name- Watchtower Bible and Tract Society.
  That indicates that their products are Bibles and tracts- a printing company. Sure, mags and books took over for a long time, but their main products were still available, and still are today, but are clearly on the decline. And they are in trouble because they got way too big to be just a Bible and tract printer. They needed those Watchtower mags to keep them so big. And so many magazines have shut down in the 21st century.

  I viewed them as a printing company when I was a believer.
  Their 1975 doctrine was all to pay for modernizing their printing facility. Despite the end of the world not coming, they came out of that stronger than ever, having gained more people than they lost and gaining more than they ever would have if they had not announced the end of the world.
  
  I see them as a literature printing company in just as much trouble as any literature printing company. But they are trying with all their IQ's put together to convert to a non-printing religion, what Morpheus says he believes they always were- sellers of hopes and dreams of a better future and special access to God.
  
  I don't believe they will succeed. My thought is that they are getting no new blood and everyone from the top down is stuck in their thinking on the old model. Members are not heavy money contributors, they contribute time and they used to guarantee that every new book was a best-seller. Now, they go to meetings and conventions and just give their fair share of money. And keeping up with the technology, they are not going to contribute more money just because Mother tells them to. And if they tithe (I think they will come up with something like that), many will just leave before divulging their income to Watchtower or swearing they are giving a proper percentage.
• 

  OnTheWayOut

  ...but I see arguing over whether they will last a short time, a long time, or for virtually forever as an exercise....just an exercise.

  We don't know that they are or are not squirreling away money from property sales or spending it all. All we can say for sure is that "print" is not getting them the income they need, so it is diminishing.
  
  I, and others, see them passing a point of no return- getting where they cannot sustain the corporation. I see it as a time when the bosses (be they lawyers and accountants with our without the G.B. or something else) will have jumped to other countries where they already moved some money. Others see the bosses (or at least the G.B.) hanging on until the bitter end, believing either God or themselves can pull the corporation out of a nosedive.
  
  Others see them squirreling that money away to keep the corporation going, finding a new way to become a religion with profits again. They could become a tiny HQ staff and run things on the internet, asking congregations for money and knowing it won't be as much as in their heyday.
  
  We don't know. It's an exercise to keep guessing.
• 

  sparrowdown

  What time is it on the WT collapse clock today? How many minutes to midnight are they?

  A WT collapse clock... anyone???

  Might make it easier for some posters to keep track of the speculation without actually having to trawl through all the back and forth speculation.

  Just remember sparrowdown suggessted it. I have a lot of great ideas btw.

  You're welcome 😉
• 

  thebrokenkite

  @slimboyfat "Just wanted to clarify that the Watchtower School of Gilead has NOT been abandoned. I was a Brooklyn B-lite shortly after the school was redesigned, eliminating the application process through which some had previously been selected as students. Beginning in 2011, students would be nominated exclusively from a pool of already special full-time servants. The graduates would then be assigned to high-population areas, so as to maximize their potential statistical impact. Previously, missionaries had often been sent to very remote destinations with small populations. I also led a Bible tour at the MET Museum in NYC for 12 of the students in the 138th Class of Gilead in September, 2014 (the class saw the return of single sisters among the students). All that changed was the scope of the school and the demographics of its graduates."

  A shameless copy and paste of my comment on another thread where you mentioned this. Gilead has NOT been shut down. Sorry for the stickling, just wanted to be accurate. :)
• 

  OnTheWayOut

  The graduates would then be assigned to high-population areas, so as to maximize their potential statistical impact.

  ....by standing next to a cart of literature and not talking to people in areas where no JW's ever did NOT talk to people before.
  
  
• 

  steve2

  Thanks thebrokenkite. I had seen on here some time back discussion about the Watchtower School of Gilead no longer operating and - despite a "WTF!" moment - simply accepted it as a fact. Amazing how easily rumors spread.
  
• 

  _Morpheus

  No no that cant be true kite. The org is broke and is shutting down, any second now!!!! There are no more gilead trainees. I dont know who you took on a tour but they wernt gilead people.

  @otwo- your response regarding the very name of the org being centered around publishing is of course fair enough. However they wernt a publishing house in any traditional sense. There customer base is was and remains the membership. Im repeating myself from other slim doom and gloom thread but average people dont give a single solitary f*** about wt dogma or wt interpretation of scripture. It was all for the membership all the time.

  So to borrow slims attempt at mocking through illistration, its not at all analogous to a widget company stopping widget making inorder to save shipping costs. Its is what it always has been: a multilevel marking type scheme ala avon. Most “reps” (publishers) are nothing more than someone high ups customer. The product was never the lip gloss or whatever its always been selling distributorships. For the wt the product was (at the risk of repeating myself ad nauseam) for the wt as it is for every religion everywhere for all of human history: promise of a better future and special access to god. The crap liturature was simply a way to seperate the sheep from their money, keep them busy selling more distributorships etc etc.... it wasnt the one sole product that can never be replaced.
• 

  slimboyfat

  Beginning in 2011, students would be nominated exclusively from a pool of already special full-time servants.

  Well yes, that's exactly the point. Since it began in the 1940s Gilead was a training program that produced new missionaries. That stopped in 2011. Until 2011, mostly young married JWs from around the world were invited to apply and become full time servants who would be supported by the Society in lands experiencing growth. From 2011, while Gilead kept the same name, it changed to become a retraining school for existing full time servants who are already being supported financially by the Society. The difference is huge. Gilead, as a school for producing new missionaries for Watchtower ceased operation in 2011. Not producing any new missionaries since 2011 obviously saves money. It also indicates the reduced scope and ambition of the Governing Body in the global preaching work. The significance of the downgrading of Gilead in 2011 has been appropriately described as abolishing their missionary program.