Are we on the brink of another world war?

by slimboyfat 88 Replies latest social current

  • slimboyfat

    I don't want to be an alarmist or anything...

    But I read this article in the Economist today that argued it is only a matter of time until China and Japan exchange shots over some small islands in between the two countries, it could escalate to full scale war, and the United States is treaty bound to come to aid of Japan. On top of that the United States is making diplomatic visits to various countries borderning China in a move that is viewed extremely negatively in Beijing. Plus there are domestic pressures within both China and Japan for war that weak-willed and inexperienced statesmen (both countries have come under new political management within the past few months) may find difficult to resist.

    It all rather worryingly resembles the July crisis of 1914. As was the case then, with Serbia igniting a power struggle between Russia and the Autro-Hungarian empire, there is now a dispute between two major powers that appears to have no solution without one side or the other losing face. Domestic pressures are pushing leaders toward military engagement, and historic treaty obligations threaten to drag the rest of the world into the conflict.

    Is anyone else worried?

    Impossibe san?

  • jookbeard

    China would be crazy to start a war with Japan and the USA, they are owed too much money!

  • james_woods

    China does have a surplus Russian air craft carrier - with diesel engines.

  • sir82

    First I've heard of it.

    There do appear to be mitigating factors:

    The risk that the dispute might cause a serious rift with America must haunt some of China’s diplomats. Many of them believe that this would thwart China’s ambition to become a respected global power. So calmer voices may yet prevail. A botched military engagement could inflame nationalist sentiment at home and turn it against the party for its perceived incompetence. For all their rapid acquisition of sophisticated hardware in recent years, the Chinese armed forces lack the combat experience that might give them confidence in their ability to prevail.
  • Pterist


  • james_woods

    The battle for the Falkland Islands did not lead to WW3, and neither will this silly dispute.

  • slimboyfat

    The previous two world wars were a crazy idea too but it didn't stop them from happening!

    In fact world war one was such a crazy idea that many statesment of the period conplacently thought it simply could not happen.

    But that's what happens when you let politicians run the show: short term answers to serious problems resulting in devastating consequences.

  • Cagefighter

    The Chinese might wait a 1,000 years to make a move, however they are under going some changes so who knows. Also, they could dump a trillion dollars into the world economy and inflate us into having to start a war just to keep from going bankrupt.

    Affairs in the Eastern Hemisphere are disturbing. China has always maintained that the Far East is their realm and the U.S. should stay out as they do not intervene in affairs in N. America, S. America and Mid East for the most part. They could be looking for an excuse to take Taiwan which is also an ally of the U.S. They could team up with N. Korea and make us choose. Fight a war for S. Korea, Japan, and Taiwan or just give up Taiwan and cut our losses. With our war fatigue here in the U.S. the time could be right.

    They want Taiwan BAD!

  • jgnat

    This little dispute gives me nerves, too. The difference between this little island and the Falklands is that there was no world power in agreement with Argentina to back them up in a fight.

    WWI was an accident of mutual pacts and agreements between the world powers that got out of hand.

    China is doing quite well moving in to a position of dominance through economic growth. Economists like predictability and stability. Perhaps the golden ring of prosperity will allow China to back off this little territorial dispute.

  • Yan Bibiyan
    Yan Bibiyan

    Too globalized for this to happen, IMO.

    Everyone now has skin in the game.

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