Brazil. JWs up 26% in 10 Years

by Joker10 126 Replies latest jw friends

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  steve2

  I forgot to add that to compare several very unevenly distributed denominations and call one of them more evenly spread than the others is a statistically nonsensical way of phrasing things. Instead, it would be more helpful to state the following:

  "While no denomination has an "even" spread of membership (i.e., defined as similar ratio of members to population in all countries) in all countries of the world, one denomination has relatively less uneveness of spread, Jehovah's Witnesses." Then it would be a matter of demonstrating the accuracy of this assertion by JW-memberships across different countries with other denominations. Let the comparisions begin if those sorts of membership/population ratio membership figures are available for various denominations.
• 

  cedars

  slimboyfat

  According to the English Church Attendance Survey 1,991,000 Catholics attended church on Sunday in England in 1979. By 2005 this number had dropped to 893,100. That is a decline of well over 50%. During that same period the number of JW publishers increased from around 75,000 to 125,000, an increased 65%.

  Hang on, 125,000 British JWs to 893,100 Catholics - and this is supposed to be a "comparable group"?

  If those trends carry on even at a reduced rate it is not inconceivable that there could be more JWs than Catholics in the United Kingdom within decades.

  According to JWs, Armageddon is imminent - we don't have decades to spare. Besides, we will never see the number of JWs surpass the number of Catholics in Britain, I think you know that.

  I can't really comment on your claims about other lands since you don't quote any figures, but I would be VERY surprised if there wasn't a significantly stronger contingent of Catholics in the Muslim/Communist world than JWs. I also note steve2 made an interesting point in this regard.

  In any case, my principal argument, which you seem to have ignored, is that this forum represents an excellent opportunity to help indoctrinated JWs awaken from a lifetime of servitude to a damaging cult. As a long-standing forum member, you feel no obligation to help these ones by tempering your glowing praise of the organization with some perspective from a doctrinal point of view. I see things rather differently. In that key argument, we must agree to differ.

  Cedars
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  slimboyfat

  The point about their being more "evenly spread" is demonstrably incorrect.

  It is not incorrect. Compared with other religious groups they are remarkably evenly spread. I never claimed they are evenly spread in an absolute sense, but comparatively so. Do you know of any religious group that is more evenly spread across the globe? I have considered this for some time and looked at a lot of data. I have not come across another group that is as well spread. Mormons are not even close. Adventists are better, but poorly represented in Europe and elsewhere. Some Pentecostal groups are perhaps a nearer rival, as they do well in South America, Africa and Eastern Europe, but figures are not as easy to obtain. If you have other information then I am interested to see it.
• 

  steve2

  Slimboyfat appears to realise his original phrasing was not helpful. Good on him for moving from "more evenly spread' to "better spread".

  Regarding the collapse of church attendance among Catholics in the UK and the JWs increased attendance in that country over the same time frame, please check the last 10 to 15 years: There has been a significant slowing of growth of the JWs in the UK.

  In addition, to extrapolate a few years of earlier relatively bigger percentage increases of the JWs ignores the fact that growth rates of the JWs in the UK - and in practically every other country where they are active - have never been steady to allow reliable extrapolation.

  Another statistical point to consider: The bigger a group currently is, the greater the numerical increase needed to be lead to big percentage increases. E.g., if a group has 2 members, in one year it "only" has to attract 2 more to shout about a 100% increase, whereas a group of 200,000 would need to grow by 400,000 to equal that percentage of growth.
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  slimboyfat

  I was comparing Catholics to JWs because you asked me to! In terms of growth they are not comparable. JWs are growing and Catholics are in rapid decline.

  There are perhaps more Catholics in Russia than JWs in absolute terms, but definitely not as a proportion of worldwide membership. Remember we are talking about spread not absolute figures. There are over a billion Catholics, so of course there are more Catholics than JWs in most countries. We are talking about the spread, but for someone who did not understand the definition of a net change in an earlier discussion, I do not hold out much hope that you will grasp this point.
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  slimboyfat

  Steve I don't understand the distinction you are making between "more evenly spread" and "better spread". I used them to mean the same thing: that the proportion of JWs is more similar across more countries than for other religious groups. Could you explain what you mean?

  While JW growth over the last 15 years has been more modest in the UK, the Catholic church has continued to decline rapidly. The divergence continues if not as pronounced. It is true for pretty much any set of dates you care to pick in the last 60 years or so. I have not selected the dates to prove my point, 1979 is simply a good starting point because that's when the data from the English Church Attendance Survey starts.

  And the bigger the group is, the more members they need to lose to make a large percentage decline. And the Catholic church has lost over 50% in England in thirty years. Given their size that is a colossal social shift.
• 

  cedars

  slimboyfat

  Ah yes, I forgot you are still sore over the "net decrease" thing. Feel free to keep banging on about it until you get it out of your system.

  I concede that, in Britain (judging from your figures) JW growth is clearly better than Catholics - although I think it's a moot point when you consider the relative size. Still, I was digressing. I apologise. In any case, I don't think it tells the whole story to zero in on the British when discussing global spread. I don't have the figures, but like I said, I would be very surprised if Catholics aren't more evenly spread than JWs - especially in those arab/communist lands. These are the sorts of arguments that must be saved when we have accurate figures for comparison. I just think it's important to tell both sides of the story, rather than to pat the Society on the back for being a relatively prosperous religion without putting things in context.

  Cedars
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  slimboyfat

  There are 7,400,000 Jehovah's Witnesses in the world and 161,000 in Russia. That means that 2% of global JWs live in Russia.

  There are 1,147,000,000 Catholics in the world and 200,000 in Russia (the upper estimate on wikipedia). That means 0.02% of global Catholics live in Russia.

  I suspect the figures are similar for other former Soviet States.
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  slimboyfat

  Incidentally the population of Russia at 147,000,000 is almost precisely 2% of the global population of 7,000,000,000. A near exact match with the proportion of JWs.

  That's what I mean about JWs having a relatively even global spread. Many other countries won't match so well, but overall the spread of JWs across the globe more closely resembles the population spread generally than other religious groups.
• 

  steve2

  Steve I don't understand the distinction you are making between "more evenly spread" and "better spread".

  Both phrases were used by you and both are inept as descriptors, but one is less so (to put it kindly).

  "More evenly spread" implies an evenness of spread in and across different countries (otherwise why use the phrase?) whereas "better spread" does not "claim" to be describing evenness of spread but a better spread compared to other groups. In that regard it makes potentially more sense - but comparative figures across countries are still required - and not just a selection of countries.

  The phrase "more evenly spread" in particular is not justified because the Watchtower reports show that membership-to-population ratios vary hugely - and unevenly - from one country to another country (compare the membership-to-population ratios of India and Zambia for two extreme examples).

  I still await statistical back up for either phrase, one of which is more constraining than the other.