British Sociologist Predicts Possible Collapse in Jehovah's Witness Numbers

by slimboyfat 88 Replies latest jw friends

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  steve2

  
  

  Still, the passing of time favors, not JW organization but observers with an interest in how long this endtimes organization can last. The word “collapse” is a very loaded and inexact word - more suited to bee colonies and the longevity of historic buildings than adherents of organised religion.

  I expect the reality will be somewhere north of collapse but well short of thriving.

  Note that with the end of JW Yearbooks and its fastidiously OCD list of country-by-country service statistics ( e.g., including memorial attendances, Bible studies and hours publishing, etc) the scope now exists for confining results to global grand totals without selected country-by-country breakdowns. Those of us who live for detailed lists are left frustrated in assessing the health of JWs in our favourite countries.

  No organization that thrives in those areas would confine results to grand totals so something’s up ( or down).

  JW organization will not collapse but will likely continue to yield highly variable results country-by-country, and when it does give results for a specific country, they will be without context. You won’t know from the numbers whether they are better or worse than last year for that country. For example, New Zealand’s peak JW publishers for 2017 was about 14,100 which is a bit of a decrease from 2016 BUT over 400 fewer that six years ago. You only know that by checking through old Yearbooks.
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  humbled

  The word “collapse” is a very loaded and inexact word - more suited to bee colonies and the longevity of historic buildings than adherents of organised religion.

  Thanks for that chuckle, steve2. Some day this pot will boil but l’ll be damned if l will look in old WTyearbooks to audit their accounts.

  Ha! Bee colonies..
  
  
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  berrygerry

  I expect the reality will be somewhere north of collapse but well short of thriving.

  steve2
  

  What do you think about the reality of the financial picture? ( https://www.jehovahs-witness.com/topic/4812472855822336/canada-branch-financials-posted-bleeding-appears-very-real )
  
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  Crazyguy

  These guys will lie about their numbers till the last day. They will be a very small cult someday but the collapse will not happen just a withering.
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  nonjwspouse

  ^what Crazy guy said
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  Brokeback Watchtower

  Being that the underpinnings of the Watchtower Corp. is based on wishful thinking, delusions of grander, and a nieve self serving interpretation of ancient bronze age writings, I see a collapse in the works.

  With lawsuit cases being fought all over the world the Watchtower clearly has over extended itself. Videos of proper record destruction, failure to comply with court orders to hand over records, costly appeals to eventually settle out of court with a gag order. This is seriously eating up their assets.

  They have many construction projects that have been halted or only half finished, they are being forced to sell their most valuable real estate holdings, Kingdom halls are being sold and congregations are being liquidated and combined to make the loss in active publishers not so noticeable. They had to rob all congregations of their bank account surplus over a few months operating expenses, by mean of a Governing Body mandated order which can not be rejected with out serious consequences.

  Printing literature is no longer a money maker, instead it is becoming a unnecessary expense with the advent of the internet and paperless information sharing.

  Mega lawsuits in Canada, USA, Australia, and the publicity about these will make persons less inclined to give even the hard core believer will eventually be effected as more property get sold and they find out about these legal problems the WT corp. is facing and where their contributions are going(to pay for bad policies made by the GB(faithful and discreet not!) that harms children).

  They may be able to coast a long as a bare bones minimal cost operation for decades but I sincerely doubt it will be worth the effort. If the court case continue to grow against them as this pedophile thing gains momentum they may have to claim bankruptcy when the funds dry up, and liquidation of assets can't keep up with legal costs.
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  snugglebunny

  Interesting...https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/153023193017?ul_noapp=true
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  dozy

  What the sociologist didn't seem to factor in was the combination of inertia , constant , ongoing thrice ( now twice ) weekly indoctrination and friend / family ties that keep most JWs just plodding along. Coupled with the lack of any obvious alternative ( from a JW mindset ) and the huge mental hurdle in actually examining ones own core beliefs , there hasn't been a collapse ( and , I suspect , there never will be - just a long , painful , slow decline in numbers. )

  Very few "interested ones" became JWs while I attended , but it didn't really make much of a difference to overall sentiment. You kind of got used to the idea that people weren't going to come along into "the truth" , and the expectations were very low. I remember finding somebody in the ministry who was interested , and ironically it actually became quite a hassle , studying with this guy every week!
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  freddo

  The numbers are propped up by modern medicine and the no-smoking trend. The oldies (late 60's up) in our cong of 65 publishers = 20 (plus 3 who have died in the last 12 months).

  The only incomers are those moving in - no new blood except a few weirdo's who seem to make no progress beyond attending an occasional meeting. Only 3 born-ins under 15 as well.

  That's 30% who are between 68 and 88 years old ...

  They ain't gonna live forever!