British Sociologist Predicts Possible Collapse in Jehovah's Witness Numbers

by slimboyfat 88 Replies latest jw friends

• 

  jwfacts

  I'm not buying it. The author's premise is based on JWs becoming discouraged/disillusioned because of lack of success in converting people in the ministry. Well, as anyone who has been a JW should recognize--JWs don't care whether they convert anyone...they just go out in service to count time and keep the elders off their backs.

  OMG - Yes and no. Conversion was always dismissed as not being the ultimate goal. For instance talks that it didn't matter if there were converts or not - the angels are watching and Jehovah was being provided with "an answer to the one taunting me". However, human nature needs converts. As shown by Festinger and cognitive dissonance, when predictions fail it is conversions that help a person keep their faith. For instance he says "But there is a way in which the remaining dissonance can be reduced. If more and more people can be persuaded that the system of belief is correct, then clearly it must, after all, be correct." As more people abandon a group it becomes more difficult to be convinced it is correct.
• 

  slimboyfat

  Look at Denmark where there has been stagnation in JW numbers since at least the 1980s: More than 20 years hovering around the same number of active publishers, despite ongoing baptisms.

  Excellent example Steve. I had the same thought myself. The Netherlands is another example of a country that has had about the same number of Witnesses for 30 years or so now. If failure to increase leads to disillusionment and collapse then we might reasonably expect to have seen evidence of that happening in those countries that have already been flatlining for decades. Instead it seems that a core of Witnesses are able to keep plodding along despite abundant evidence they are not making any progress converting people.

  Incidentally for those of you who know your way around Amazon's "search inside" feature, you can read the first 3 pages of the article (including a graph showing the rate of growth falling) if you search for "Jehovah's Witnesses" and go to page 117.
• 

  jwfacts

  I agree that Denmark indicates a huge drop off is unlikely for now (provided there is not some extraordinary event as a catalyst). However, these countries hang on to the hope that it is the truth and gain encouragement from the growth overseas. I remember we would gain great encouragement from the work in Russia despite to stagnacy of Australian growth.

  When a time arrives when there are no countries growing, then I think the scenario in places like Denmark will be different.
• 

  slimboyfat

  In the article I cited in the first post David Voas included this response from James Beckford to his argument that JW numbers may collapse.

  1) I question your assumption that Publishers are discouraged by 'failure to recruit'. I have always argued that the main purpose of the service work is not recruitment but confirmation of identity and commitment to the WTBTS [Watch Tower Bible and Tract Society, the JWs' corporate entity]. In fact I would go further and claim that the poor response the JWs receive on the doorstep confirms their view that the world is corrupt and heading for disaster. This means that the phrase 'diminishing returns from field service' can't be easily reconciled with the JWs' worldview as prophetic, heroic and sacrificial. So, I question your claim that proselytization makes JWs vulnerable to decline in hard times.

  2) A closely related point is your claim that 'recruitment appears to be the raison d'etre of activity'. Again, I question whether that is true. The main activity is publishing the good news. I see recruitment as a useful bonus. An allied point is that the JWs are quite selective in their efforts. They have their own prejudices and stereotypes in mind. Again, this places limits on recruitment. See Munters (1971).

  3) I don't have good quantitative evidence to support my belief, but it certainly used to be the case that 'cold calling' produced poor results that were compensated for to some extent by recruitment through networks of relatives and work friends, neighbours, etc. What I would dearly like to discover is the proportion of Bible Studies that are conducted with people already personally known to the JWs.

  4) If the JWs become demoralised, it's not because of poor responses on the doorstep. It's more likely to be because of internal scandals, official obstruction in, for example, France, and the energetic efforts of apostate groups. (Personal communication, 2 December 2002)

  In a subsequent message Beckford commented further:

  You argue that the 'willingness to sacrifice may fade' if it becomes clear that the organization is losing ground. But the JWs will certainly use such evidence to show that the 'endtime' is near and that Satan will manifest himself through attacks on Jehovah's organization. So, the effect on morale may be surprising. (12 December 2002)
• 

  willyloman

  The four points, and subsequent fifth, cited just now by slimboyfat, would be my response to the study... if I could write that well.
• 

  slimboyfat

  I think it's interesting that Beckford views apostate groups and government obstruction as significant threats to Jehovah's Witnesses.
• 

  moshe

  Truth is what you can convince others it is" and the failure of JW's to convince most of the population that they are right does have a negative result on JW's over time. They have had to reduce door2door hours because the preaching work has become increasingly more unpleasant and even depressing. Thanks to the Internet, door presentations are now more likely to not go in the JW's favor and they now have to quickly leave when the conversation goes against the JW's scripted sales tactics. When I asked a JW a couple years ago why she was running away from me, she replied, "this is not a productive conversation"- hey, it was my fault! If it wasn't for Hispanics and family member baptisms, the numbers would have fallen off a cliff years ago.
• 

  zagor

  Interesting argument, only time will tell. There are many factors at play here that are not stagnant but constantly in flux and changing. At time of any crisis or chaos people tend to look for certainty and something percieved as "real" to hold on to, it is in human nature. But once crisis subsides or they move away just far enough to be able to look at it from some distance you usually see a sharp drop in interest. So I guess the bigger question is how long this crisis is going to last. Another factor like pointed out is how many are already suseptable, bearing in mind again that suseptibility increases with crisis experienced by an individual.

  But I don't see as likely that people are suddenly going to flock to Kingdom Halls, if anything overall churches accross the board may see a temporary rise in attendance.
• 

  Billy the Ex-Bethelite

  Interesting comments. It's very much a "wait and see" situation.

  I just wanted to throw out my observation on current WT leadership and their influence on future growth/decay. I'll just say that I know the current GB members rather well. I also know many of the old-timers in Bethel and the "up and coming" younger men. These are all "company men". They're not the type to come up with great new ideas. To a great extent, they're just saying, "do more and more of the same". Their Botchtower articles are recycled with old errors omitted, and new restrictions inserted.

  Most of their new ideas, such as reducing hours for pioneers and shortening the meetings, are actually admissions that the whole thing is very burdensome. Much of what they do, seems to be reactionary. They make changes in an effort to make it seem that everything is as rosy as ever... but it isn't. The world around them will continue to change, but they don't seem to have the capacity to exploit change to their advantage.

  In the past, Botchtower had charismatic leaders that spoke and everyone listened. Sure, they were wrong about 1975, but then Freddie's "generation" was greatly latched onto. Now, "generation" is gone, with nothing really to replace it. "King of the North" is gone, with nothing to replace it. When some of the current GB, particularly Losch, speak, it's pure speculative garbage and the CO will try to confiscate any recorded copies. Rutherford took the hardships of the Great Depression and government opposition and cashed in, whipping the crowds into a frenzy with "new light", recruiting of new members took off, and he lived the good life in his mansion with his "nurse". The GB now just stare with glazed eyes saying "the end is sooo close, listen to the Governing Body, because the end is sooo close."

  B the X
• 

  truthseeker

  It boils down to this - they are offering me everlasting life in a peaceful new world - will I get to see it in my lifetime.

  Young Jehovah's Witnesses now can look back at 3, 4 of even 5 generations of JWs in their family and see that they have been preaching about the end of this system of things for 130 years - yes, that's one hundred and thirty years.

  Do they realistically see themselves as being part of that promised new world of righteouness or simply part of an enduring legacy?

  My observations are:

  1) Many witnesses in the 20-39 age range do not truly believe and act on the information provided by the Society that the end is imminent - they are going to college, enjoying themselves and not taking the beliefs seriously.

  2) Fewer brothers are reaching out for positions of oversight

  3) More families are leaving the witnesses not just individual members of families

  4) The dumbing down of literature has reduced the average JW to a sheep-like intelligence - they know how to reason from the scriptures but not why they reason from the scriptures - it's mostly memory recall of scriptual arguments against Christendom's teachings

  5) The organization as a whole offers no services for young children and teenagers. There are no support systems for single mothers, no social groups of any kind, no preschool as many churches have - this reduces the social framework to merely seeing brothers and sisters at the hall and on field service but outside of that there is little or no contact on a purely social basis, especially for older witnesses.

  A strong social element in any religion is like a glue that binds people to each other - most of us need to be around people, even if only infrequently; we need friends, - the JW framework does everything in its power to limit contact with each other, even with other members of the congregation as their counsel is to limit activities to small groups and couples.

  Their recent advice in the Kingdom Ministry to introduce yourself to the person or family sitting next to you at the District Convention will generally not result in any long term relationships but will have the likely outcome of meeting a potential partner at the convention - will I or will I not get their phone number?

  Such temporary "joy" that comes from these District Conventions introductions is very short lived as a general rule and not the exception, the end result being that the family or brother/sister you introduced yourself to will be sitting somewhere else the next day and will have completely forgotten about you.

  Perhaps this advice serves to reinforce the global concept of "our whole association of brothers"?