British Sociologist Predicts Possible Collapse in Jehovah's Witness Numbers

by slimboyfat 88 Replies latest jw friends

  • neverendingjourney
    neverendingjourney

    Much of what they do, seems to be reactionary. They make changes in an effort to make it seem that everything is as rosy as ever... but it isn't. The world around them will continue to change, but they don't seem to have the capacity to exploit change to their advantage.

    Interesting thoughts, Billy. My sense is that their leadership structure is the reason there has been a lack of big changes, especially with respect to their crumbling and out-of-date eschatology.

    The power of the WT had always been vested in the president of the WTBTS, that was until the 1970s when President Knorr began to shift the power center from the presidency to the newly-formed GB. After the 1975 debacle, the transition was sped up and Freddie's power began to slip even more. The focus of the WT currently is to exalt the GB above everybody else. As we know, the presidency of the WT has been stripped of its former power.

    We know from Ray Franz that a 2/3 vote was required to get any major changes passed in the governing body back in the late 70s. Assuming this is still the case, we can imagine that passing any major reforms must be exceedingly difficult. You'd have to convince 6 of the 9 GB members to go along with a proposal.

    I have a feeling that these guys must all be megalomaniacs of varying degrees. After all, they believe that they've been chosen to reign in heaven with Christ (even though it was official WT policy for years that the sealing of the anointed had happened in 1935, before some of these guys were even born). Not only that, they've been further chosen to direct God's people during the last days, a position akin to being an apostle during Jesus' time!

    Therefore, I think these guys must all have their own pet theories and views on a whole host of doctrinal matters, and they feel that it's their job to convince the GB that their view is the correct one. Getting 2/3 of the GB to go along with any one particular view in that environment, especially if it involves a major overhaul of official doctrine, must be exceeding difficult, if not impossible. So, I think we'll see more of the same, minor adjustments that amount to nothing more than plugging holes in the dam. Their eschatological framework needs a major overhaul, but I don't see that happening when it requires a 2/3 vote.

    One way way of analogizing this is the process required to amend the American Constitution. It requires a 2/3 approval from both houses of Congress and ratification by 3/4 of the states. Because of that hurdle, the constitution has only been amended 16 times in the last 200 years, and a mildly controversial amendment stands no chance of passing. Assuming the 2/3 hurdle is still in place, I can't see the WT coming up with any significant new light that amounts to an overhaul of their dated doctrine. They can come up with a consensus to drop certain dates that are no longer tenable, like 1935, but circumstances will have to force their hand for them to reshape their doctrine.

    The power of the WT had always been vested in the president of the WTBTS, that was until the 1970s when President Knorr began to shift the power center from the presidency to the newly-formed GB. After the 1975 debacle, the transition was sped up and Freddie's power began to slip even more. The focus of the WT currently is to exalt the GB above everybody else. As we know, the presidency of the WT has been stripped of its former power.

    We know from Ray Franz that a 2/3 vote was required to get any major changes passed in the governing body back in the late 70s. Assuming this is still the case, we can imagine that passing any major reforms must be exceedingly difficult. You'd have to convince 6 of the 9 GB members to go along with a proposal.

    I have a feeling that these guys must all be megalomaniacs of varying degrees. After all, they believe that they've been chosen to reign in heaven with Christ (even though it was official WT policy for years that the sealing of the anointed had happened in 1935, before some of these guys were even born). Not only that, they've been further chosen to direct God's people during the last days, a position akin to being an apostle during Jesus' time!

    Therefore, I think these guys must all have their own pet theories and views on a whole host of doctrinal matters, and they feel that it's their job to convince the GB that their view is the correct one. Getting 2/3 of the GB to go along with any one particular view in that environment, especially if it involves a major overhaul of official doctrine, must be exceeding difficult, if not impossible. So, I think we'll see more of the same, minor adjustments that amount to nothing more than plugging holes in the dam. Their eschatological framework needs a major overhaul, but I don't see that happening when it requires a 2/3 vote.

    One way way of analogizing this is the process required to amend the American Constitution. It requires a 2/3 approval from both houses of Congress and ratification by 3/4 of the state legislatures. Because of that hurdle, the constitution has only been amended 16 times in the last 200 years, and a mildly controversial amendment stands no chance of passing. Assuming the 2/3 hurdle is still in place, I can't see the WT coming up with any significant new light that amounts to an overhaul of their dated doctrine. They can come up with a consensus to drop certain dates that are no longer tenable, like 1935, but circumstances will have to force their hand for them to reshape their doctrine.

  • Blueeyes54
    Blueeyes54

    The collapse is on the way because of what Jesus said to John about the seven congregations in the book of Revelation. They were to correct certain weaknesses that he found on his final inspection. Only one congreagtion met his whole approval. I know for a fact that statistics can be missleading. I put in 180hr. a month average in unofficial pioneer work, but reported the required amount. To use reporting as a bases for the strength of ones faith is shakey at best. I'm more concerned about those going out the back door while the pioneers are pushing new ones through the front. Anywhere from 30,000 to 60,000 a year are, either being disfellowshipped, or falsely accused of sins not even Jesus would condem. There is an attitude much like the one Paul had when he was Saul. A paranoia that anyone proposing newlight outside the Governing Body is automatically a threat to the KIngdom. Even if Jesus were to appear on the blinding road to their Damascus, they'd call him a Demon.

    Look out for the leaven of the Pharisees!

  • metatron
    metatron

    Overall, you guys collective analysis is very good. However, you have failed to consider what might seem to be the most radical possibility:

    a collapse triggered by the leadership.

    On first glance, such a thing seems impossible. How could such a thing happen? Well, even if the new GB are all shallow company men, it doesn't mean that they are immune to frustration over a decaying organization. It is they who are at the center of observing the lack of donations, the steady string of minor legal defeats, the plans to downsize and layoff Bethelites, and the increasing phoniness of Witness life.

    Eventually, what are termed "animal spirits" in the investment markets have to kick in. They will feel a collective urge to do something!

    Take a careful look at recent changes and discern that they can't be for entirely financial reasons, such meetings/hours reduction. Note Billy's comment that this an admission that they are very burdensome. Think about efforts to cover over Gerrit Loesch's wild speculations from the platform. And what exactly is left of an organization, when so many of its members skip meetings and close their wallets?

    I continue to believe in the "Soviet model". A fanatical organization decays and forgets its 1914 (1917) origins.

    Guys, we are observing the "Gorbachev" period of the Watchtower, now that nearly all of the old Theocrats (Bolsheviks) are dead. Expect change that wrecks all of it.

    metatron

  • Pistoff
    Pistoff

    I can't take this seriously; a poor analogy is not the same as a cogent argument.

    Why do people become witnesses if they are not born in?

    Why do people stay if they were born in or the parents converted while they were young?

    What enables people to investigate the basis of teachings? And what might force an abrupt exit? What is involved in their gradually drifting away?

    How does this compare to growth rates in other decades?

    For me, most importantly, how is the internet model of information gathering involved?

    I know that for me, being able to research easily and from the privacy of my own home was a HUGE factor in leaving. I was able to sample thousands of stories and read from many sources of information.

    Is the WT still functioning because they satisfy some basic desire of the adherents? Is the inability of the WT to keep satisfying those needs the reason for the problems is currently has?

  • metatron
    metatron

    Alas, Pistoff, "the ocean of most souls would scarcely get your feet wet". Most Witnesses are eagerly dumb, dumb,dumb. How the heck else can anyone explain the wild paradox of fanatically depending on an organizational authority that's been dead wrong for 120 years?

    Sure, some people will use the internet to escape - which may selectively make the remaining organization even dumber in collective character.

    Mostly, disaffilliation will come from ordinary competition to the organization - money, sex, a boyfriend, drugs, too much entertainment, and so on.

    Downloading porn will probably hit them harder than any internet site exposing Watchtower misdeeds.

    metatron

  • 1914BS
    1914BS

    You only have to go back to 1925/26 when the WTS organization lost 75% of it's flock. (Ask Blondie about that) There was explosive growth prior to 1925 because of Rutherfrauds 1925 end of world prediction. This rapid growth was almost entirely due to converts (99.9%) and not due to born-ins. After 1925 there was a huge implosion in numbers and in one year almost all the flock was wiped out. Frederick Franz made every attempt tp hide that fact. The numbers show that 'converts' can change their mind in a hurry (after all - religion exists only in the mind) On the other hand born-ins are much more resilient to the effects of propaganda.

    Taking the above example of the 1925 time period, we see that prior to 1925, Rutherford's propaganda was sensational and after 1925 the propaganda became destructive. Apparently the propaganda was far more destructive than it was sensational.

    Today the organization is a mix of born-ins and converts. As soon as the proganda becomes destructive expect a sharp decline in the number of converts ( in the org) . Already it seems that the number of Jws leaving the organization is far exceeding the number of converts coming in. There could be a tipping point where the perceived doctrines become poisonous or destructive. That effect seems to have started.

  • hamilcarr
    hamilcarr

    No one has ever correctly predicted a decline or rise in JW numbers. The 2007 rise for instance surprised many.

  • 1914BS
    1914BS

    That is true, but it could be safely said that 75% of the org has already fallen because 9 out of 10 JWs can't explain their own doctrines (because they are in total denial)

  • Pistoff
    Pistoff

    I really do not get the internet porn obsession by the WT; why is that such a threat to the leadership? Naked people, people having sex, caught on tape, SO WHAT? I do have to say, if you get a kick from this but feel you have to go tell the suits about it, you really deserve to stay stuck there.

    HOW does this have any lasting impact on an organization?

    Sex is a biological function, right? People are curious, big deal. If it is all you do, or you must have it to be sexually satisfied, maybe you should take a look at it, but really, if it is legal and not child porn, who cares?

  • mkr32208
    mkr32208

    I've said for a while that they won't be around as we know them today in 2020...

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