Watchtower Decline Confirmed - Only 1.9% growth in 2006!

Neo

The official Watchtower 2006 Service Year Report is not out yet, but I have it on good sources that this year's increase on publishers number is 1.9%. The average number of publishers will be around 6,500,000.

Here's the % increase for this decade:
2001 1.7%
2002 2.8% (9/11 and 15-minute publisher effect)
2003 2.2%
2004 2.0%
2005 1.3%
2006 1.9%

Some other numbers for 2006:
Baptized - 248,327 (0.28% increase)
Bible studies - 6,286,618 (3.7% increase)
Memorial - 16,675,113 (1.8% increase)
Bethelites - 19,328 (4.0% decrease)
(I don't have # of Memorial partakers, nor stats by country.)

Those figures confirm the steady decline of the WT religion. Though still growing in absolute numbers, they can barely keep up with world population growth. The newly baptized are typically Witness children (and most of them end up leaving the religion in their mid-20's anyway). They have lost their next generation and there's a serious shortage of elders and MS to get the work done.

That's an ugly picture for an organization that claims they are "fulfilling" Isaiah 60:22! Any Witness with a functioning mind can connect the dots and see that something is seriously wrong with the organization.

Neo

Outaservice

Yes. 'functioning mind' seems to be the key!

Outaservice

M.J.

I wonder how the US numbers were. I'll bet there was a net loss from the English speaking congregations.

voltaire

Interesting information. It looks like the WT might settle into 1% or so growth for the near future. As you mention, aside from the 9/11 effect, it looks like all the recent years point in that direction. I wonder if it might hit negative rates at some time? That would be very discouraging for the brothers. These low rates can probably be rationalized as a slowing down due to the cooling off the love of the greater number or even a sign of the nearness of the end. But even these low growth numbers will no doubt dampen the enthusiasm of some. It'll be interesting to see what unfolds over the next few years.

Ron

Legolas

Thanks for the post Neo.

XJW4EVR

Bible studies - 6,286,618 (3.7% increase)

This number frightens me more than anything. With all the information out there people still want to study the Watchtower with these people?

Memorial - 16,675,113 (1.8% increase)

This means that there are over 10 million people worldwide that have some sort of association with the Dubs, that provokes them to sit through a 45-minute talk about a Meal that they don't partake in.

Neo

An Organization Going Downhill Annual Growth 1945-2005

alt
(The y-axis represents annual growth percentage; 2006 still missing; thanks, Elsewhere!)

jwfacts

Thanks for the early update. It is looking dismal for the WTS. Unfortunately it is not quite as bad as I had hoped, as the baptisms and growth is better than it was in 2005.

There are a number of interesting graphs at http://jwfacts.com/index_files/statistics.htm Since 1995 there has been a signifcant decline in the growth rate.

OnTheWayOut

Bible studies - 6,286,618 (3.7% increase)
This number frightens me more than anything. With all the information out there people still want to study the Watchtower with these people?
Memorial - 16,675,113 (1.8% increase)
This means that there are over 10 million people worldwide that have some sort of association with the Dubs, that provokes them to sit through a 45-minute talk about a Meal that they don't partake in.

Hey, don't sweat these numbers too much. Sure, it looks like a lot of potential but the vast majority of both of these figures are from unbaptized JW children. At least 75% of them should fall away eventually, maybe more with the internet and information output, along with the desire for a normal life. The JW's are focusing in on the foreign-language field and Sign Language in the United States right now, IMO just to keep the numbers positive. Most of the new people they gather burn out sooner or stay "spiritually weaker" than JW's in the past decades were. Expect negative numbers very soon, worldwide also.

jgnat

Interestingly, the Circuit Assembly I just went to reported an attendance of just over 650. In past years, it's hovered around 1,000. There appears to have been some shuffling of congregations between the circuits. Possibly to bolster the numbers in some of the other Circuits?

Attendance shell game?

Watchtower Decline Confirmed - Only 1.9% growth in 2006!

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