Watchtower Decline Confirmed - Only 1.9% growth in 2006!

by Neo 91 Replies latest jw friends

• 

  Neo

  "The little one himself will become a thousand, and the small one a mighty nation. I myself, Jehovah, shall speed it up in its own time."
  Isaiah 60:22

  Joker10,
  I stand corrected on the issue of growing slower than world population. That was true for 2005, but not for the current year, since 1.9 is higher than 2006 estimates I checked. It will prolly be around 1.4. But if you can interpret those numbers, you can also figure what is going on in WT Land - a blatant contradiction between the GB teachings and the facts.

  The WT applies Isaiah 60:22 to itself. They say we're living in the days when this prophecy is being fulfilled, when the JW organization is supposed to experience an amazing growth. They say that Jehovah will speed it up. There's no other way to interpret that: it means that there should be an acceleration of the organization growth. That's what to accelerate means. As Dictionary.com says in its entry for "accelerate":

  [Origin: 1515–25; < L acceleratusspeeded up (ptp. of accelerare), equiv. to ac- ac- + celer swift + -atus -ate 1 ]

  If we are living "deeeep into the time of the end" and "in the last days of the last days", as Witnesses say, there's no other option but the "speeding up" one. Now take a good look at the graph I posted on page 1. What do we see there? The growth rates are steadily going down! The curve shows that the organization growth is decelerating! It is still growing, but at an increasingly slower pace. IOW, we are literally experiencing the very opposite of what they have foretold.

  

  Acceleration vs. Deceleration. Is there a clear-cut contradiction or not?

  Neo
• 

  JT

  if my stock gained 1.9% annually, and last year just 1.3%, I would count it good news, not bad for my portfolio. Not that the increase is good - but it is not a decline as the post indicated.

  Jeff

  $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

  Jefff my man

  you must not have any stocks or investments- if your stocks/portfolio only move "Point .6 percent of "One Percent" the fees and service charges would pratically wipe out any gains

  After taking out 6-10 percent of your pay for your 401K and it only grew .6% of of One Percent- you got a bad 401 K my man

  let me share with you one of the key numbers the Boys in the Service Dept looks at

  Baptism!!!!!! for Baptisms are the payout for all the Billions of Hours, Billions of pc of literature and the Largest purchase ever by a printing organization for the new presses up at the Farm

  this is what the Service Dept is looking for- 1 % baptism, yes just 1% baptism at each convention, assembly, special assembly day

  so when there are 1000 in attendance they are looking at AT LEAST 10 foks hitting the water, now we are not going to even talk about the make up of the 10 folks, jw kids vs door to door bible studies, just 1% is what they want,, of course it is better if the the 10 folks are door to door folks, but hey they will take the kids if nothing else

  in the last 5 yrs and i have been involved with the jw for 35yrs, they are having more circiut assemblies where NOONE IS GETTING BAPTIZED!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  the speaker is talking to Empty chairs-

  "When a circiut assembly has no-one getting baptized jw have spent the last 6 month walking the street with nothing to show for it"

  that is why so many jw are tiring out- the Hip Hip Horray only last so long

  after 9-11 jw realized like after 1914 and the war was over life goes on
• 

  jwfacts

  From prb.org in 2006 the world population grew by 1.2%, so a 1.9% increase is above population growth levels. Accounting for the large % of JW youths that eventually leave it would appear that about half the growth must be from 'the territory'.

  The thing that seems to have been missed that is that although there were 260,000 baptisms the number of publishers only grew by 125,000. That means that there is still a very large number of people leaving. Baptisms are 3.9% but growth only 1.9%, so half of all the growth is wiped out by the number leaving/dieing.
• 

  jwfacts

  The spin the WTS puts on this is "Wow, 250,000 people were baptised, isnt that a sign of Jehovah's blessing" What they will fail to mention is that in the 1990's over 300,000 were baptised each year, in 1997 375,000 were. That means a decline of 50% in baptisms in just 10 years.
• 

  Neo

  voltaire,

  These low rates can probably be rationalized as a slowing down due to the cooling off the love of the greater number

  Well, they've officially said that verse applies to "nonbelievers", not those inside the organization. So any Witnesses who uses this excuse is not in harmony with the official doctrine!

  met,

  I completely agree that fake publishers are a growing phenomenon. Not only those who have "seen the light" turn in a couple of hours, but worn out publishers find that they can have some peace if they simply fill a monthly sheet with a few numbers.

  moshe,

  I'm not sure what constitutes a KH Bible study today.

  Well, like other posters have said, they have a loose concept of what constitutes a "Bible" study. If you come for a second visit and considere some material, WT says you can count one study. So the 2006 BS numbers are just soap bubbles.

  dozy,

  Thanks for the figures - higher growth than I expected. The poster tries to put a negative spin on it , but seriously , almost a 2% increase is not bad at all , and will cheer the suits in Brooklyn. It will be interesting to see a country by country breakdown. There is just so much momentum behind the Org and so much loyalty from most of the members that I just can't see any tailing off over the next few years. ... The figures probably mask a lessening of activity , however - although JWs are loyal , they aren't as zealous as they used to be.

  ... Even in the more established lands , those who wish to see a decline in "High Control" groups like the WTS are likely to be disappointed - the trend in the West is definitely for a shift from institutionised religions to more "fringe" religions , like JWs , Mormons & Pentecostals http://news.scotsman.com/scotland.cfm?id=554452003 .

  I agree for the most part. Of course Brooklyn will feel some relief; they are obsessed with statistics. But that's only because things are going too bad lately in Watchtower world.

  I love your insight on loyalty X zeal. But I don't believe in near-future noteworthy growth for the WT. Unlike most high-control groups, they don't adapt to change. They are on auto-pilot and make changes only when they can't visualize any other option (as on financial matters).

  ozziepost,

  I think we're "protesting too much" with this thread.

  I don't think so. It's the other way around - we're not criticizing enough. They have been so presumptous about "increases" for so many decades that we should keep on pointing out that, considering the expectation they created, the actual numbers are a real shame now.

  R6Laser,

  The only time when I would be happy is when we finally see 0% increase or an actual decrease in their yearly numbers.

  I can totally relate. But before we reach that point there will have to be smaller increases. I'll try to enjoy the ride until then. Each suceeding annual report has been a delight to those who can see GB's lies.

  slimboyfat,

  I want to know the number of congregations too. 100,000 will have a psycological impact on the JWs.
• 

  JT

  PLEASE FOLKS do not confuse baptism numbers with publishers numbers

  due to the way wt counts folks you are running numbers on top of each other-

  for example if you have a congo with 100 publishers- they could be 70 baptized and 30 not-

  so when 25 folks get baptized you still got 100 publishers

  same with bible studies, if the congo reports 30 bible studies and 20 are family studies, then they report 40 bible studies, 10 jw family start to count their family study, - they still are not studing with anyone NEW in the terrirtory, and the kids are 4 and 5, so they will have a bible study for 10yrs before these get baptized

  wt has this funky way of counting foks and as a result it gives you false and incorrect impressions-

  case in point, my old CO told us for example the wt will report 13,000, New pioneers signed up, but they make no mention of the fact that with the new service year 14,500 dropped off-

  so unless you do some digging and adding you will see that in so many areas that look like grouip, it is no more than fuzzy numbers
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  slimboyfat

  I think the real thing that is causing a problem with these figures is that they are neither good nor bad! They are just in the middle. This is really annoying because it is a natural tendency to want to look for dramatic developments as real indications of future direction. Perhaps we have simply to settle for the fact that the Witnesses look set for mediocre growth into the foreseeable future: No recovery, and no dramatic collapse either. This may be a bit disappointing because one of the few things that might 'shake things up' in the organisation would be if there were an undeniable worsening of the figures, and mediocre results like this year's may just allow the leadership to go on the way they have been going without seeing any need for real changes.

  Some depressing things apostates possibly have to come to terms with:

  1. Maybe the Internet is never going to cause the Witnesses to decline. Most in the west have been connected for some time now, and while a few have left the Witnesses because of Internet information, there has been no general collapse in support for the organisation. It might have been expected that it would take a few years for the real impact to be felt, but it is now 2006 and perhaps we have to accept that the Internet is never going to have a tremendous impact.

  2. Maybe the 1995 'generation shock' is wearing off now. I think quite a number were disillusioned by the change in the generation prediction in 1995 - some left, and more simply slowed down. But that was over a decade ago now, and as many as a third or more of current Witnesses worldwide (6,500,000 - 5,000,000 + number of defections and deaths) joined the religion since that change was made. Such ones have no memories of the significance of that change and they may be breathing a bit of new life into the organisation the same way 1980s converts did after the 1975 disconfirmation.

  3. While most of the growth is in the developing world as many have pointed out, the figures for certain western countries have improved slightly in the last couple of years as well. Britain had 1% growth in 2005, and going by the Kingdom Ministry figures they will likely match that or better when the full 2006 figures are out.

  4. As dozy pointed out, while the rate of Witness growth may be historically bad for them, compared to other religious groups in western countries they are still doing exceptionally well. Dozy cited an old report on Brierley's figures for Scotland. Well the new figures for England are also out as of last month they and show continued decline:

  http://www.christian-research.org.uk/pr180906.htm

  It is quite revealing that the churches are actually celebrating a small slowdown in decline! So however bad the Witnesses are having it, other other churches as a whole are worse off in Britain at least.

  Slim
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  free2beme

  I work in telecommunications ...

  Think about this, all cell phone companies are basically the same thing. Only your perception is defined by your own personal location, customer service experience and so on. How ever you feel about one company to another, is something that is equally repeated across the board by other people in opposite feelings to your own. Yet you think your in the right one. Why? Basically it comes down to good marketing strategy. Does the company say what you want to hear, do what you want done personally, and so on. It does not mean, that your opinion actually defines their quality. Because like I said, if you actually looked at them side by side technology, you could not tell the difference from one to the other.

  That is how religion is too. There all basically the same thing, and just because on grows more or decreases more then the other. Is saying nothing more, then one is better at marketing their concept of religion, more so then the other.
• 

  Rabbit

  #1. I would not believe anything the Watchtower gods have to say, even if they 'swore' on that proverbial 'stack of bibles'.

  #2. They have never been forthcoming and open about any numbers. From how much money they rake in, to what they do with it, what stocks & investments they make, how much their real estate empire in worth...nothing! They have never allowed any independent auditing nor have they voluntarily opened the books for examination by the R&F.

  #3. Take one easily proved stat: baptisms... why not actually publish the numbers of those dunked per CA/DA -- by the name, location and date ? Then, if you watched those baptisms and took notes, anyone could compare them -- to the WT report. If there was a difference...you could call the WT on their deception. (Or simply blame yourself for miscounting and begging for forgiveness for your lack of faith and gullibility)

  #4. But, the WTB&TS has never been open and honest and it never will be.

  #5. Lastly...see #1.

  Rabbit
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  Amnesty Vendor

  Since these numbers are or will be based on a WT report about itself, how credible are they? WTS has already been proven to be the great spin doctor. Has any independent agency ever done a report on JW figures?