Something significant changed in the WTS in 1984... but what was it???

by Elsewhere 45 Replies latest jw friends

  • IronClaw

    I feel with the internet going strong and only getting stronger the decline in numbers will continue to drop off.

  • Sam Beli
    Sam Beli

    The elder arrangement was placed into effect in 1972. The GB began funtioning in Brooklyn at least a year or two before elders formed local governing bodies.

  • heretic

    i love the build up and drop off before and after 1975. it almost falls off the page. it just looks funny. imagine if they printed that graph the questions by young ones and the replys by oldies

  • VM44

    Can we project forward to find the expected year when growth will be zero? --VM44

  • VM44

    And didn't the JWs say at one time that they were the fastest growing religious group in the world?

    Can't say that now, can they?


  • Oroborus21

    It's not hard to figure out. Just listen to Billy Joel's We Didn't Start the Fire

    these are WORLDWIDE growth rates on the chart. (I reiterate my concerns about using growth percentage - see the other thread).

    Think about it for a moment. (just dealing with the years of the chart)

    We had World War II (including the entering of the Atomic Age and growing fears over nukes, Self-Annilation) and then Korean War

    That was like dropping a rock in the pond causing reverb for JW growth for decades.

    Then Vietnam and the 60s turbulence (Social Reform and Civil Rights Movement) JFK, MLK, Robert Kennedy etc.

    more reverb

    70s Economic Crisis, Egypt-Israeli war, Cold War worries, Arms Race

    more reverb plus the 1975 Fiasco and build-up

    drop-off from that

    then the 80s, suddenly things are starting to brighten even before the end of the Cold War, Soviet Union Break and Advent of Internet among general population (circa 1989)

    during the early 80s, Reagan ushered in a new era of hope with a bag full of rhetoric and one-liners, and the effects were not just limited to the U.S.

    Terrorism was still going on and places like Central America were still hot zones, but most of the world started feeling cozy.

    No major wars involving multiple countries, new territories opening up on former communist countries, etc. and

    voila! the line stablizes to an extent

    of course as others have noted if you go small enough there are still hills and valleys due to different things like the Generation Doctrine, etc.

    the bottom line is that the 80s was a pretty mellow and hopeful decade, hense New Wave music and really big hair-dos

    The 90s were also hopeful with the insane Internet Economy and looking forward to the new Millennium

    the world climate affects to a significant extent the growth of JWs who as far as new converts are concerned (not those born within) rely upon the fears regarding the "Last Days" to convince persons to join. If the world conditions seem turbulent you have more fluctuation. If the world conditions are pretty much stable then so is the growth rate. I think that the growth line just reflects this fact.


  • Leolaia

    Eduardo.... Interesting that there is a small spike after 2001...could that be a 9/11 effect?

  • proplog2

    The trend using moving averages is really quite predictable. The 1975 blip smooths out. This is a graph that reflects a slowing growth. As someone else mentioned - as the number of individuals increase there is a general smoothing of the trend.

    The 1975 jump and subsequent correction is the most obvious event.

    Rutheford liked "advertising". If he were alive today he would have to acknowledge the "brand" is tired and it needs a "new and improved version" to keep it going.

  • stillajwexelder

    Just done a brief extrapolation and zero growth will be achieved around 2011 - unless some idiot in Brooklyn says the end wikll come in 2014 and then we may see another spike

  • stillajwexelder

    I appologize for my earlier error re Bodies of Elders - in 1980 they stopped rotating Presiding overseers etc - BOE came in much earlier 1972

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