Something significant changed in the WTS in 1984... but what was it???

by Elsewhere 45 Replies latest jw friends

• 

  Elsewhere

  Looking at this chart I can't help but notice that pre-1984 the growth statistics were extremely erratic. Then, all of the sudden in 1984 the growth statistics calmed down and have ever since fallowed a much more stable trend. It's almost a straight line after 1984.

  So what happened? What changed? Did the WTS growth stabilized after the Governing Body took over? Organizations that are controlled by committee tend to be far more stable than organizations controlled by a single charismatic leader.

  Does anyone know precisely when the Governing Body came into power?

  Does anyone have any other theories as to why the WTS's growth rate would stabilize in 1984?

  http://home.zonnet.nl/rsingelenberg/Web-images/graphs/stats_05/annualgrowth_05.htm

  Jehovah's Witnesses: Worldwide Annual Growth (%)
• 

  kid-A

  I believe 1984 was declared the "Year of Peace" by the United Nations. There was talk amongst the DUBs that this was surely the sign they had been waiting for:

  When they call out "peace and security"....blah blah blah....I'm not sure if this idea was actively promoted by the borg or just at the local level. Just a theory.....
• 

  kid-A

  Whoops. My bad, 1986 was the UN Year of Peace, but they announced that resolution in march 1984. So I guess that was'nt it! LOL
• 

  Elsewhere

  Shortly, that body [The UN] is to proclaim 1986 as the International Year of Peace
  
  July 1, 1985 Watchtower p. 24 par. 4 Triumphing in "the Final Part of the Days"

  Close but, that happened in 1986.

  Never mind.
• 

  stillajwexelder

  The GB came into arrangemenat around 1976 but Knorr was not happy but he died in 1977 - then Franz took over and shortly after the Body of eldesr arrangement came in "1980ish " . So around early 1980s you are ruled by a committee at all levels - GB, Branch and Bodies of Elders. Even though the charismatic Franz was around his power was stunted. So 1984 would make sense. You also would have growth because the DUB would say 1914+70 = 1984 but the scripture says special mightiness 4 score years so 1914+80 = 1994. So growth steady until mid 90s. Then of course you have generation change etc so grwoth drops - this despite Soviet Union/Eastern block opening up
• 

  stillajwexelder

  The steady drop since 1994 is generation change and the INTERNET.
• 

  silentWatcher

  it's also "law of large numbers". Say if there were 1,000,000 dubs, then 100,000 is a 10% swing. Today, 100,000 is only ~2% swing with 6,000,000 witnesses. The "singularity" in the mid - 70's is "1975".
• 

  stillajwexelder

  Yes perhaps we should be fairer and compare absolute growth year on year rather than % growth
• 

  hubert

  I'm glad you brought this chart up again, elsewhere. You brought it up a few days ago in another thread. Notice the huge drop in new members in 1975, when the end didn't come like they said it would.

  I found this interesting. I'm trying to figure a way to ask my daughter how come the chart almost went through the floor that year? (and make her think to check out why)?

  Hubert
• 

  moshe

  My guess it has something to do with demographics. The last generation of JW's started to get baptised- the ones who were the post 1975 generation- many JW's started to have children right after 1975- soon they would be young teenagers and be pushed into getting baptised.

  peace,

  Moshe