Saintbertholdt

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Posts by Saintbertholdt

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  25

  I predicted a lottery number from a pattern, is the lottery NOT random or is random held to a universal force?

  by EndofMysteries in

  1. social
  2. current

  i've studied and observed several lottery patterns.

  this one is now gone so nothing lost by revealing it.

  i had a certain history search and noticed that almost each week the past few months a list of numbers not used recently were being used 1 per week.

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  Saintbertholdt

  Hi 2+2=5,

  You wrote:

  Spew away

  Weeeeeeeell ok then, this information may be old hat to you and I apologize in advance. If you asked a mathematician, scientist, engineer or man child (me) about randomicity and stochastic systems, the first question they should ask is: What is the probability distribution of the outcomes, which reduces to the problem of the probability that a particular event will occur.

  For example say you have a fair six sided die. What is the probability of getting the number four?

  Well that's sort of obvious, its 1 chance in a possibility of 6 outcomes or to put in simple mathematical terms: P=1/6 (16.667%)

  What if you added a second die? Well you can get at minimum the number 2 (two ones) and the maximum of the number 12 (two sixes). So the probability of a particular outcome is 1 in 11. Right? Well actually no. The moment you have multiple events which are summed, the probability is different for each possible outcome.

  How does this work?

  To get a two, you need a 1 and a 1.

  To get a three you need to throw a 1 and a 2 or you could throw a 2 and a 1.

  To get a four you could throw a 1 and a 3, a 3 and a 1, or a 2 and a 2.

  So there are 36 possible combinations that you can throw with a set of 2 dice, which affects the probability as follows:

  
  

  So with a pair of dice, you're most lightly to throw the number 7 at 17% probability and the lowest is 2 or 12 at 3%. The more dice you add, the more the Probability distribution will start looking like a bell curve. This is famously the normal or Gaussian distribution, which can be discrete or continuous:

  

  Sooooo... what if you had a set of 5 dice, with 45 sides each and you threw them all together and viewed the outcome as a summed event (as was done with the set of 2 dice)?

  Continue?
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  25

  I predicted a lottery number from a pattern, is the lottery NOT random or is random held to a universal force?

  by EndofMysteries in

  1. social
  2. current

  i've studied and observed several lottery patterns.

  this one is now gone so nothing lost by revealing it.

  i had a certain history search and noticed that almost each week the past few months a list of numbers not used recently were being used 1 per week.

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  Saintbertholdt

  Are the lottery winning numbers truly random?

  If the lottery is not crooked, yes.

  There are two types of random numbers: TRN's and PRN's. True Random Numbers and Pseudo Random Numbers.

  Pseudo Random Numbers are generated by computer and when the same seed value is used the algorithm will generate the same sequence of numbers which will at some point repeat. The repetition can be short or very long depending on the algorithm used. Most PRN's use derivatives of an algorithm called LFSRs (Linear Feedback Shift Registers). The most well known/widely used algorithm today is called the Mercene Twister. Some early online casino's were compromised because a sequence could be predicted if one knew the algorithm used and had a short sequence of the numbers that were sequentially generated. So today online casino's make a lot more effort to generate unduplicatable PRN combinations.

  Lottery numbers are True Random Numbers. This means to predict the numbers one would have to either simulate the universe up to the point where the next lottery numbers are drawn, or one would have to know the EXACT initial conditions just before the numbers are drawn and the exact mechanical mechanism used so that the process can be simulated using cellular automata or a pure physics simulation.

  (http://www.forbes.com/sites/alexknapp/2012/10/27/scientists-beat-the-house-at-roulette-with-chaos-theory/)

  Examples of TRNs are lottery numbers, radio static and cosmic radiation values.

  Flipping a coin in the long run you'll have 50/50 heads and tails.

  What does long run mean? 10 times? 100? 1000? 1000 000 000 000?

  This is referred to as the gamblers fallacy.

  The inverse of this is called the hot hand or inverse gamblers fallacy.

  See the paper available online: Predicting Lotto Numbers by Claus Bjørn Jørgensen, Sigrid Suetens, and Jean-Robert Tyran

  From the paper: "Mounting evidence from the experimental laboratory and the field suggests that truly random processes are difficult to grasp for most people, and that many people tend to see patterns in data when in fact there are none. According to the “law of small numbers” (Tversky and Kahneman, 1971), people tend to mispredict random sequences because they expect small samples to “look like” large samples. For example, if asked to generate a random sequence as in a coin toss, many people predict too many switches between head and tails because they falsely believe that head and tails should appear in equal proportion even in a small sample (see, e.g., Bar-Hillel and Wagenaar, 1991; Rapoport and Budescu, 1997). Or when playing the roulette, people tend to expect that a black number is “due” after observing a sequence of red numbers (e.g. Croson and Sundali, 2005). The belief in frequent reversals in random sequences has been dubbed the “gambler’s fallacy” (Tversky and Kahneman, 1971)."

  ...

  I could spew a lot more about this but yeah...
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  23

  Why the Governing Body caught a frightful fright

  by Saintbertholdt in

  1. watchtower
  2. scandals

  it has been extensively reported on the forum that there has been a marked increase in effort over the past two years by the governing body of jehovah's witnesses to encourage an increase in monetary donations.

  this has also been accompanied by the stripping of financial capital from the local congregations.

  as has also been reported on this forum, this has in all probability been done to facilitate the financing of the vast new hq building project as well as the financing of the shift from a publishing company to becoming an internet based charismatic multimedia company which produces lame pixar/disney animation knock offs while simultaneously parading the governing body's ever expanding waistlines, blingy accoutrements and stupid grins.. meanwhile the financials of the organization remains as murky as ever.

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  Saintbertholdt

  Hi there JeffT,

  Does the WTBS report assets based on cost or market value?

  The IRS document: 'Instructions for form 990T' only refer to assets as treated as if sold at fair market value.
• 
  23

  Why the Governing Body caught a frightful fright

  by Saintbertholdt in

  1. watchtower
  2. scandals

  it has been extensively reported on the forum that there has been a marked increase in effort over the past two years by the governing body of jehovah's witnesses to encourage an increase in monetary donations.

  this has also been accompanied by the stripping of financial capital from the local congregations.

  as has also been reported on this forum, this has in all probability been done to facilitate the financing of the vast new hq building project as well as the financing of the shift from a publishing company to becoming an internet based charismatic multimedia company which produces lame pixar/disney animation knock offs while simultaneously parading the governing body's ever expanding waistlines, blingy accoutrements and stupid grins.. meanwhile the financials of the organization remains as murky as ever.

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  Saintbertholdt

  Hi there all,

  It has been extensively reported on the forum that there has been a marked increase in effort over the past two years by the Governing Body of Jehovah's Witnesses to encourage an increase in monetary donations. This has also been accompanied by the stripping of financial capital from the local congregations. As has also been reported on this forum, this has in all probability been done to facilitate the financing of the vast new HQ building project as well as the financing of the shift from a publishing company to becoming an internet based charismatic multimedia company which produces lame Pixar/Disney animation knock offs while simultaneously parading the governing body's ever expanding waistlines, blingy accoutrements and stupid grins.

  Meanwhile the financials of the organization remains as murky as ever. To facilitate a modest insight into the inner financial machinations of our former spiritual Amway, I have constructed an asset graph for the Pennsylvania corporation. This is based upon the financial statements that have been released in the past and also the currently available 990T forms. So here goes:

  
  

  Notes:

  1. Between 1995 and 2016 only 8 years worth of information is currently available (as far as I am aware). The 1995 to 1999 information comes from the financial statements that were supplied for financial reporting of the Pennsylvania corporation while it was registered in the United Kingdom. The 2011 to 2014 information is sourced from the total stated asset value on the 990T forms. Any non-profit has to disclose the total asset value of the organization on a 990T. (For verification one could for example look at the asset value of the US cancer associations stated asset value as reported on their 990T's and then compare that with what is reported on a website like charity navigator. There is a ballpark alignment in the figures.)

  2, Between 1999 and 2010 no information is available for the Pennsylvania corporation, so therefore linear growth was assumed for simplicity sake. I guess one could make the inferences a bit more stochastic to feign realism but blah...

  3. The graph is on total asset value, NOT net asset value and therefore does not include liabilities.

  4. Notice the decline in asset value in 2014. There is a 12% decline ($134 062 000) in total asset value between 2013 and 2014. This would explain the governing body's enthusiasm for donations.

  5. Of the 8 years worth of data only 2014 shows a decrease from the previous year in total asset value.

  6. My projection for 2015 is based upon the idea that in 2015 it has been reported that the request for the increase in donations has in fact been successful (if the governing body is to be believed) , but it also factors in the previous years decline and the fact that the governing body hammers on donations (including taking away ice cream money) which means there is something negative afoot. But then again your guess is as good as mine.

  7. My projection for 2016 is based upon the idea that the recovery will continue and result in an reasonable increase. I factor in things like prevailing wind direction, the average length of a Prince album, the number of words in a Watchtower magazine etc. Again your guess is as good as mine.

  So there you have it...
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  23

  GB members quotes

  by Gorbatchov in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  for a future project i'm searching for remarkable quotes of current and former gb members.. i've two personal, validated quotes:.

  "sprechen sie deutsch?

  " "ah, ein bisschen!

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  Saintbertholdt

  "Because when I was having my questioning by the two members of the Governing body, they asked me about 1914 and I said: 'Do all the members of the governing body believe this fully?' And they said well maybe not one or two. Of course Ray Franz was one but there was another member of the governing body that twice expressed himself in not believing in the 1914 date. And I heard brother Knorr twice mention this. I thought one time he said a quite fine thing, he says: 'We might be wrong about 1914, but I know what God and Christ have done for us, and that's enough for any man." But twice he mentioned that we could be wrong about 1914." - Ed Dunlap
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  24

  I'm ready to get my first Powerball ticket -- NOT!

  by FatFreek 2005 in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  it's up to some 800 zillion dollars now and hasn't suckered me in yet.

  i've been out of watchtower for some 38 years now and i suppose the lottery is one of their nonoze.

  i have nothing morally wrong against it or anyone who enjoys doing it.

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  Saintbertholdt

  The lottery is like religion, you can't win if you don't play.
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  35

  I almost died laughing at the meeting last night. OMG WTF is going on? Have I been away this long?

  by macys in

  1. watchtower
  2. beliefs

  ok so most of you guys know already that i am going through the reinstatement process for my parents but i do have a partially sinister plan which i will not mention here since someone told me that there are b-lites that read boards like this.

  last night and it was the funniest experience i have ever seen.

  besides that the brother doing the sound and video screwed up the whole thing when showing the videos and it took 3 brothers to fix it after 10 minutes, the whole thing was a joke.

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  Saintbertholdt

  It is as if Jurassic Park and an airport calypso band made a song together! It was embarrassing but so funny I almost peed myself laughing so hard.

  
• 
  64

  "Apostates " how honest are we?

  by closed in

  1. jw
  2. experiences

  as i mentioned in another post i used to serve as an elder for 2 decades.

  i was involved in a number of jc.

  some i dealt with are good friends now.

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  Saintbertholdt

  If you - Cognac-have already vomited I hope it feel better.

  I think we all need a good vomit now and again. It cleans out the system.

  I have a sympathetic gag reflex so I'll be right there with you.

  ...

  Regarding honesty: Human beings with a reasonable job are honest between 80 and 90% of the time. 99.98% of the time they will not consider stealing money.

  From: What the Bagel man saw

  http://www.nytimes.com/2004/06/06/magazine/what-the-bagel-man-saw.html?_r=0

  
  
  
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  168

  Where to draw the line: how Platonism haunts our discourse and the search for exorcism

  by slimboyfat in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  in the discussion about race i adopted a position i am not entirely comfortable with.

  i think there is a sense in which it is useful to distinguish categories of description that can be fruitfully defended (apples and bananas) and those that cannot (caucasian or other racial descriptions for example).

  but there is a more fundamental sense in which i believe that everything is socially constructed, every single line you can think of.

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  Saintbertholdt

  Just a quick correction: Humans are not [absolutely] unique in this regard, however the extent to which [symbolism] is used by humans is unprecedented in earth's history
• 
  168

  Where to draw the line: how Platonism haunts our discourse and the search for exorcism

  by slimboyfat in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  in the discussion about race i adopted a position i am not entirely comfortable with.

  i think there is a sense in which it is useful to distinguish categories of description that can be fruitfully defended (apples and bananas) and those that cannot (caucasian or other racial descriptions for example).

  but there is a more fundamental sense in which i believe that everything is socially constructed, every single line you can think of.

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  Saintbertholdt

  Hello again you bunch of atheist polemicists,

  Human beings are unique in their extensive use of symbolism (This thing represents that thing). Humans are not unique in this regard, however the extent to which it is used by humans is unprecedented in earth's history. Human beings are also self aware and are mostly concerned with their own experience (solipsism). The following section describes a number of symbolic definitions using some half baked symbolic language:

  Mathematics and logic are languages that use symbolism in an absolutely consistent manner (well mostly).

  Science as an overarching symbolic concept looks at things and observed processes and then tries to ascribe the mathematical and logical symbolism that most closely resembles the observed processes and things. This gives it predictive power.

  Technology uses this predictive power and uses it on the physical things and processes humans observe to make new things so that it can make human lives more pleasant. So enters personal experience. Technology aims to improve human solipsism.

  Religion on the other hand uses symbolism to construct a logic which is not absolutely consistent and tries to fit observed processes and things to its logic. This is/has been done to solve seemingly intractable solipsistic problems which makes life less pleasant. These include the end of the solipsistic experience and also the observed degrading of the personal experience over the course of time. Although not consistent, religion seems to have improved human solipsism to some extent by not having humans worry too much about these intractable problems.
  

  ---

  So what I'd personally like to see: That science and religion fuck to sire technology that will solve seemingly intractable problems to make my own solipsistic experience more pleasant.

  To quote a lyric by Johnny Cash: "They say they want the Kingdom, but they don't want God in it."