There will be a sliver lining to the virus

by JimmyYoung 32 Replies latest social current

  • JimmyYoung

    You are throwing out a lot of shit and lumping it together. The fact is that the Spanish flu killed some where between 50 to 100 million deaths with a population of 2 billion. So 150 million with a population of 8 billion much less than the Spanish flu. The estimate of death rate of the Spanish flu was 3 to 5 percent. Lets take the lower number. 3 percent of 8 billion is 240 million people. 5 percent would be 400 million. So the Spanish flu seems to be at least for now much deadlier than this virus. We also have much better medicine than there was in 1918. about 60 to 65 million die each year of seasonal flu. You can not cherry pick Italy as a place to pull a number because its population are much older than many other nations and will get a higher death rate. This is pure misinformation by pulling numbers that are not across the board. At the death rate we see now is about 1 percent all things known factored in. so that puts the global deaths at 80 million. To act like this is the end of the world is to give into stupid panic. This does not mean go to the store and after touching everything putting your finger in your eye or mouth. Use gloves when doing things around high traffic areas, use hand sanitizer when going out and about and don't go out if you don't have to. Or go to places like trails or bike riding ect where you do not come into contact with people. Don't travel or go on a trip such as a cruise where you are in close contact with a lot of people. The only way to halt the spread of the virus or any thing is to either quarantine people like Italy or find a vaccine and make it mandatory to get inoculated. There will be a vaccine but it can take up to a year to get one out. I bet it will be faster due to the governments pushing for one. Stay away from people sneezing or coughing. This is the way its spread. This is a close contact disease. You can get it by touching a surface that someone has coughed or sneezed on then touching your face more specifically eyes nose or mouth.

  • slimboyfat
    about 60 to 65 million die each year of seasonal flu.

    Nonsense. Fewer than 1 million die of seasonal flu each year.

    WHO estimates the fatality rate of coronavirus at over 3%. You are correct, because the world population is greater now than 1918, this potentially means many more deaths than Spanish Flu, possibly over 150 million.

    It is to be hoped that the death rate is not really as high as 3% and that fewer than 60% of the world population will be infected. But there seem to be few reasons for optimism on either front at the moment. Perhaps unless we have a complete lockdown as China did.

  • Simon
    The average age of people who die with this is 80yo. So its not really as deadly as people think. Its about 10 times as deadly as the seasonal flu. Which is not really all that deadly.

    You're missing the point. Many will die from the effect that this has on other things - heath-care for instance. There will be no capacity to help them.

    Guess what happens if you break your leg and there's no one to treat you? You limp.

    People will die because of Coronavirus in addition to the ones that it kills.

    And this "but they're old" is BS. Sure, it affects them at a greater rate, but it can affect anyone. And hey, maybe some of us know some old people and think it'd be swell if they weren't just killed off and it treated as 'no biggie'.

    So far western democracies have displayed no ability to halt the spread whatsoever.

    Yes, the authoritarian regimes do have the advantage that they can dictate what happens and in situations like this, it can save lives.

    Look at North Korea - they had a case, and shot them dead. "OMG, how awful !" right? But what's worse, killing 1 or allowing 10,000 to die? And the attitude that it's OK if lots of old people die seems just as cold hearted to me.

  • Simon

    Jimmy Young: You're talking BS and I'm not allowing it on my site.

    Your math is out by massive factors and you're working backward - claiming the death rate and number killed by Spanish flu was way higher than it really was.

    We know Wuhan / Chinese Flu is about 10x more deadly.

    You think a few dabs of hand sanitizer makes everything OK? You need to think about it more - everything you touch, every product on a shelf or delivered to you has been touched. You sanitize your hands after touching every-one or you wipe them all down before putting them on your shelf?

    And what about people who cough - look at the case of those infected on a bus, some who got on the bus 30 minutes after an infected person had gotten off were infected.

    Stop pretending it's OK, stop pretending that old people's lives are low value.

  • JimmyYoung

    I think you are predicting more infections than there will be at anyone time. Even china is reporting its shutting down some of the hospitals that are dedicated to this virus. I don't think its going to be as bad as all that. I don't see it. Diseases like measles are highly infectious, You can walk into a room and not touch or be near anyone and contract the measles, You can not contract this virus this way. People are getting over excited.

  • Simon
    Even china is reporting its shutting down some of the hospitals that are dedicated to this virus.

    Well, one of their hospitals just collapsed. I don't think they are a shiny light when it comes to caring for people. Plus we don't know the true figures because they can't be trusted.

    Merkel is talking about 70% of Germans likely going to be infected.

    This is highly infectious, more infectious than regular flu and also more deadly.

    But sure, don't you worry.

  • JimmyYoung

    I don't think it was a hospital it was a housing unit they were using to quarantine people during incubation.

  • snare&racket

    Jimmy Young, with respect ..... do you have any experience, qualifications, speciality training in disease and disease control or biology?

    I wouldn’t get on an aeroplane built by a dentist, painter or plumber or doctor or lawyer or taxi driver or even a pilot.

    Just because the internet is anonymous, it still calls for humility and personal responsibility. You really can’t just make this stuff up out of thin air.

    This is an expert and her numbers seem legit, however even the experts don’t have crystal balls and ever week being new data that may change the predictions, it’s far too early to have certainty.

    Then there is the risk of significant CV19 mutations and their own consequences.

    Don’t contribute to the mud in the water ...... and stop buying loo rolls!

  • eyeuse2badub


    But since none of us on this forum are prophets/seers/knowers of the future (none that I know of at least), instead of getting all heated up about death tolls and percentages, probably best to check back is 4-5 months. Our worrying about it won't change what's gonna happen! I suggest that we ponder this question:

    "Why do they use sterilized needles for death by lethal injection?"

    just saying!

  • JimmyYoung

    The death tolls are not that bad or as bad as predicted. Its repetitively low. Most of the deaths have been at the point of origin. Most of the deaths in the USA have occurred in one nursing home in Washington state. Another silver lining is the stock market. I just wired money into my account Ameritrade and am buying deep in the money calls. This is so low its crazy and people selling right now will kick them-self in the ass in a year. The panic is so over blown its crazy. If the market dumps again its more money again and more deep calls out two years.

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