There will be a sliver lining to the virus

by JimmyYoung 32 Replies latest social current

  • JimmyYoung

    So for years the USA has been relying on cheap labor in China. Supply lines were never interrupted. China has gotten away with murder in its sending anything it wants with little checking of its goods. Dog food with plastic in it ect. Now company's will shut down and have production disruptions due to this. And it looks like its going to be slow but will happen. Now Apple says it may not have any product later this year. How many companies will say screw this and bring back at least some of the production to the home countries? My bet is some at least. If a car does not have one part they don't make that car. This may shock corporations into keeping production here. It could lead to a boom down the road for these nation and halt the BS Chinese making everything.

  • RubaDub

    The sliver lining may be a lot of cheap stocks in the market to buy at a bargain. I also would expect some really good travel deals coming soon.

    Rub a Dub

  • slimboyfat

    I think it’s a bit soon to be talking about silver lining. Let’s take stock in six months, whether the death toll is counted in millions or not. There may be all sorts of unexpected consequences. Such as war, for example (between China and Japan, for example) which may change everything. In which case supply chains may be the least of our worries. Let’s hope not. But it’s far too soon to judge what may be the consequences, let alone a silver lining.

  • JimmyYoung

    I doubt that the death toll will be that high or cause any wars. China attacking Japan would end badly for China. Anything can happen but its highly unlikely. Stocks are already a good buy. Many are below 11PE and are cheap now. Even during the great depression it was only 4 and a half years till the market rebounded. The 25 years was due to the fact that they moved out stocks that made up the dow from the crash to the 25 year mark. If you take the original stocks that made up the dow it was 4.5 years for recovery. This is not 1929 at all. And if you wait till the stocks are free you will never get into the market. In 6 months this will be in the downward swing. As far as the Corona virus it is much different than the Spanish flu. It was more deadly by far and killed not the old and young and sick but the healthy and strong. I was slower to burn out because of how long it took for it to travel around the world about a two years. Now its around the world in a few months and we have much better ways of not only looking for vaccines but in keeping it from spreading. At first when the US Army found out about the Spanish flu they kept it quiet. We have had several pandemics between then and now. This is not walking dead and will not be from this virus. Panic is causing people to do dumb things. In another post I posted about stocking up on food, water and ammo because I know what flys off the shelf in panic. I watched that you could not beg borrow or steal a 22 cartridge for over 5 years after the 2012 sandy hook shooting, or an AR15 or many other rounds. I have seen how toilet paper was hard to find after Johnny Carson made a joke about toilet paper being hard to find and it was hard to find for a few months after the joke. I also lived through a few Hurricanes in Florida and you go from full stores to empty shelves in 2 seconds. But as for this being a real end of the world as we know it. No no way.

  • Simon

    There are big implications to society and I don't think all of them will be foreseen at this point as it unprecedented at this scale.

    Behaviors will have to change. We need to be more interested in hygiene and social etiquette of ill people coming to work, going on public transit, openly coughing in queues etc...

    Supply chains have to be local and brought back from China. Having them with allies is one thing, but an irresponsible dictatorship with an abysmal record on the environment, ecology, human rights and intellectual property is just wrong. Trump was spot on about the need to decouple from China.

    If lots of old people die, there will be implications politically and economically. Empty houses, pets that need to be adopted - all manner of things that happen after a localized disaster but on national and global levels.

    Global travel and open borders need to be re-examined as to the risks. The right for people to travel to an epicentre of an epidemic and then visit multiple other places before returning home can't continue.

    At the very least we should face some inconveniences of not being able to have events for a while until the spread is slowed and a vaccine is developed.

  • cofty

    China will need to eradicate their disgusting wet markets and join us in 21st century hygiene standards.

  • JimmyYoung

    The average age of people who die with this is 80yo. So its not really as deadly as people think. Its about 10 times as deadly as the seasonal flu. Which is not really all that deadly.

  • slimboyfat

    Italy currently has a 6% death rate, much higher than elsewhere for some reason. Very concerning. And they are reporting many middle aged fatalities and disfunction of the hospital system due to extreme pressure.

    Even 2% of 60% of world population is 150 million people, including 1.3 million in the UK and over 6 million in the US. Comparable or worse than the 1918 Spanish Flu.

  • JimmyYoung

    No its not comparable to the Spanish flu. First off there were only 2 billion people on the planet in WW1s end, we now have 8 billion and the numbers will go up just because of that alone. The seasonal flu will kill more people compared to a seasonal flu in 1918 also because of the population difference. This is the kind of disinformation that causes panic.

  • slimboyfat

    Disinformation? You’re talking out your ass.


    Spanish Flu 50-100 million deaths

    Seasonal Flu usually less than 1 million annually

    Corona virus potential deaths (based on 2% death rate of 60% of world population catching the virus) over 150 million

    A pretty big deal whatever way you cut it—a once in a lifetime event, perhaps once in a century.

    The current worldwide death rate of corona virus is 3.6% and over 6% in Italy. So total deaths could be even higher.

    The only way to avoid over 100 million deaths would seem to be to prevent the virus spreading. China and South Korea seem to have had some success. Will this last as the countries attempt to return to normal? So far western democracies have displayed no ability to halt the spread whatsoever.

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