US World Power: Time Running Out

by metatron 43 Replies latest jw friends

  • DJS

    The Ukraine situation is a post-Cold War event with all of the Cold War rhetoric and drama. Does the West want to court the Ukraine? Of course. Does Putin and Mother Russia want her back? Of course. No one suggests otherwise, but to credit/blame the West for all of this is ludicrous. The Ukrainian President got what he deserved. Will his replacement or the West's guidance improve things dramatically? Likely not in the short run but likely so in the long run.

    Putin wanting the Ukraine back makes more sense than the EU and West courting her (she is a neighbor, many are Russians, they have a history - breaking up is hard to do, and the setting sun makes her look so cute).

    Sanctions have and will continue to hurt Russia. Russia has and will feel the pain; economists have estimated that Vlad's foray into Ukraine has already cost his country billions. IPOs have been delayed; loans are more difficult to get; oligarchs are transferring even more of their $ out of the country and a whole lot of billions which would have otherwise come into Mother Russia arent. Vlad needs cash flow. Desperately. Oil and natural gas give him that now, but the hand writing is on that wall and he knows it. He also has huge debt (Olympics, infrastructure), a lot of internal corruption, societal and cultural malaise and a hangover from the post Cold War era and what was lost. A lage part of Vlad's peacockery is intended to re-build Russia's pride and self esteem (most of it is he is simply a peacock). He lined his tanks up and no one blinked. He supported the rebels and the Ukrainians didn't really meet them with roses and wine, including the pro-Russian Ukrainians. His rebels shot down the wrong plane and gave him the worst thing he could have gotten at the moment - a loss of prestige, credibility and bad, really, really bad, PR. So he takes his tanks back home, returns to his sand pile, looks over his shoulder and says that 'yeah, but my dad can kick your ass "the West better not mess with nuclear Russia."

    Will it cause a lot of changes in their behavior? Who knows, but it appears in the short run to have, and it will likely do so more in the long run. Can it result in unintended consequences? Of course. Can courting the Ukraine also result in unintended consequence? Of course. But consider what all of the whining nannies on this site and around the world would be saying if the West did nothing and Vlad, in a worst case scenario, used his political and economic clout to re-take as much of the former Soviet empire as possible. Coulda, shoulda, woulda. The West should not humiliate or cripple either Putin or Russia, but the measures taken to this point have been methodical. And effective.

    As I've pointed out before, new sources of gas and oil are being built, laid, configured, engieered and worked out financially as we speak. Vlad knows that; using his natural resources as a lever is short for his economic world.

    It really would help if those making definitive, reactionary and broad brushed statements about such topics knew what they were talking about.

  • scotoma


    We don't agree on a lot but I think you have a good grasp of geopolitics.

    The people who don't agree with your view are not capable of thinking out of the box.

    They speak out of fear. They fear what the world would be like without the USA.

    I am an extreme pessimist. Everyone is underestimating the seriousness of Putins goal.

    Don't forget that Putin came to power by the FSB bombing their own people to justify beating up on the Chechens.

    The bombing of the apartments in Moscow and other cities was blamed on the Chechens. It all worked. Yeltsin was granted imunity when Putin took over.

    Everyone in Russia was focused on the Chechen war and forgot about the corruption of Yeltsin and his mobsters.

    The criminals in Russia would love to see Putin go down and they WOULD kill him if they could do it without ending up with polonium in their tea.

    The USA wants Putin out so they can play footsie with Medvedev. That's what the sanctions are really about.

    I have to laugh when people in the west think that they are going to bring Putin down.

    Mark my words. If they push Putin too hard a nuclear bomb is going to go off in NYC. It won't arrive on an ICBM. All he has to do is pass on small nuclear bomb off to a terrorist group. No return address.

    A bomb in lower manhattan would drop the USA to it's financial knees. Europe will be shivering in their boots. Ukraine will capitualte when they see that the USA is preoccupied. Even Putin's oligarch enemies will be struck with terror because they will be next on his list. If the Muslim world gets too bold Putin will give a bomb to Iran to deliver to Mecca. The Shiites would love to chasten the Sunnis.

    We live in a dangerous world. I would love to see a scenario where things proceed in a normal way. But it won't happen that way if you push the wrong people. Putin is the wrong person to push.

    Met, as you see I forsee a messy meltdown of this unipolar world. Let's hope the resulting tribulation is cut short by the "mother ships" that have demonstrated the power to disable missiles. You know what I'm talking about.

    Too bad Tom Clancy isn't around any more. He would probably have a thriller in print with the very intrigues I mention here.

    Tom Clancy should have been working in the US state department.

  • scotoma


    Charlie is the "tipper". At least he gave that waiter a 1000 dollar tip in Philadelphia.

    Is that what you were referring to?

  • DJS


    Some of the people who do not agree with Met do so because he suffers from OCD. Until he or you or anyone else provides relevant data that the US is fading fast we will continue to view him and those like him as a hysterical reactionary. The US has a lot of problems; lack of military strength and a flexible economy are not two of them. He is myopic and only sees what he wants to see.

    I think most of us agree the US tinkers around a lot in others' affairs. Shocking. That's been going on since the beginning of clans/caves, and it is being done now by the Chinese and the Russians. Right now we are just better at it. For over half a century the US/West and the Soviets played war games and conducted spy vs. spy against one another, trying to court any nation which provided a strategic or psychological advantage, to their side.

    After a half century of it, the US had courted more pretty girls, and the Soviet system failed - miserably, as their republics have gone their merry way absent the iron fist which kept them together.

    The Ukraine got rid of a large rat who is currently been charged with stealing 70 billion dolllars from the Ukrainian till. The Ukrainian parliament voted him out, and the people supported it. They did not need the US or the West to make that occur. You insult the Ukrainians by suggesting otherwise. Did the West want them as a Facebook friend? Duh. Did the West help along the way? Again. Effing DUh. That is not new nor is it news.

    No one is anywhere near the US/West when it comes to military technology. I think you need to stick to scriptural prophecy and stay out of OPs for which you know little or nothing. As to my participation: I have stated before that I know more than a little about these topics. When Met, you or anyone else can provide relevant data I and those like me will respond accordingly.

    The Chinese and Russian economies have so many land mines ahead that if they avoid any of them most economists will be surprised. The US has a lot of problems, but they pale in comparison to these two countries at the moment. The Soviets fought and lost an invasion against Afghanistan a few years ago, the same Flintstones the US owned within a few weeks. In the first Gulf War people like you and Met were talking about how many tanks and solders Saddam had, and by all estimates he had one of the largest and most capable armies in the world. But those of us who knew, knew that he wouldn't last a few weeks against the US. He didn't. His tanks were destroyed without getting off a shot and without seeing what hit them, even when they were buried in the sand, we could see them. He flew his second/third generation Soviet fighters to other countries because he knew they wouldn't last long against US fighters. And so on. We are much, much better now than then. Moore's law alone suggests the guidance/cyber capabiilties of our various systems have improved exponentially. No one else is even close. Are they improving? Yes, the Russians have improved significantly in the past 15 years, as have the Chinese. But lots of soldiers and tanks doesn't mean much when they can't see what hit them or even get a shot off before being hit.

    You know nothing of military capabilities, and neither does Met. There are some of us on this site who know a lot about such things. I completely agree with Met that the US should try to address the underlying root causes of some of the world's strife instead of going in and mucking things up. He is right.

    However, if you don't take care of your lovely wife, if you ignore her, abuse her and keep all of the family income for yourself and your selfish pursuits, don't whine when someone with some cash and driving a low fast sports car drives off with her - or bends her over the hood. Look in the mirror for the reason why. That's the story of the Ukraine. For Met or the Russians to whine about such is truly pathetic.

    The Soviets pulled off a major coup when they entered Cuba years ago, but Cuba wasn't a US state. Other than a failed intervention, we have let Cuba be Cuba - absent US economic support/trade. They removed nukes from Cuban soil; we removed nukes from Turkey (which kinda sorta started all of that). Sounds fair enough to me.

  • metatron

    Since the specific facts I presented have not been addressed, I can move along to another critical point about US weakness: Saudi Arabia.

    On the one hand, they are supposed an "ally" , on the other hand, they sponsor hate and jihadist teaching throughout the world and try to start wars with Iran/Syria.

    There are some Congressmen also demanding the release of the 28 pages that are classified as to Saudi participation in 9/11. This is not some tin foil hat movement especially given Graham's impressive resume in foreign intelligence and his role in investigating 9/11.

    It appears to be the perfect symbiosis of evil: the Saudis create trouble and the US gets stuck in places such as Iraq trying to fix it - while the US military-industrial complex gets rich. Rinse and repeat.....


  • scotoma


    I agree with you. I don't see the USA fading. If you look at things in a conventional way the USA can muddle along as they have for a thousand years.

    People forget that the city of Rome fell but the Roman Empire continued in the east which was the most populous part of the Roman Empire.

    The USA is synonymous with the network of nations that look to it as the world's leader. This is a deeply entrenched system that tugs on every country in the world.

    The conventional wisdom is that the USA has no serious rivals from a cultural, military or economic standpoint. It is the Great Hegemon. It is the 500 pound gorilla in the living room. I don't question that. The USA sits a queen and declares it will never see mourning. The USA has a kingdom OVER the kings of the earth. It committs fornication with the elites all over the world. So now you see where I'm coming from and where I am going.

    Ancient Babylon seemed invincible. The only way in was by boat through iron gates that went down deep enough into the Euphrates that an army would have to risk drowning if they tried to go under the gates. The Perisans got in by diverting the waters so their troops could wade into the city. Most of the people were celebrating in the center of the city. Babylon fell suddenly.

    The area where your conventional wisdom falls flat is that you don't take into account that we live in a world where even though there are no economic rivals there are nuclear rivals - especially Russia. Jehovah's Witnesses also ignore this fact. They feel that the USA will be on the scene when Armageddon comes. That mistaken notion betrays that they are basically a religion started by Americans. They prefer to think of Babylon the Great as religion and create scenarios where Religion is destroyed but America continues on to persecute Christians as part of the UN.

    Does the United States think Russia won't go nuclear at some point if they are pushed into a corner. The Spearhead Forces that were voted on by NATO as a protection for NATO countries is a farce. As Lavrov said - if Russia starts losing a conventional war they will go Nuclear. 1 Missile is more than an adequate counter force to any conventional force NATO may want to mobilize. The presumption is that Nuclear warfare is unthinkable and is MAD.

    The only country in the world that has used Nuclear weapons did so when they faced huge losses to try to win a conventional war. That's when the sober minded - rational thinking Truman ordered two bombs to be dropped on Japan. So don't think that it CAN'T happen. It HAS!

    The USA thinks terrorism is its enemy because they don't really have established boundaries. The USA worries about nuclear weapons ending up in the hands of terrorists. What if Putin decided it was in his interest to surreptitiously hand one of these bombs to terrorists. He could do that. The Russian mafia arms dealers would be glad to pick up the finders fee for that kind of transaction. But why even risk having terrorist do the dirty work. You can't trust terrorist to do the job. Russians are smart enough to conceal a small bomb big enough to wipe out lower Manhattan. In fact there is a good chance there are a few such bombs already available that are left over from the cold war. Or maybe there are enough spare parts laying around from the cold war. What's to prevent a container bearing ship to have one of these bombs as they sail up the East River right past lower Manhattan and The Watchtower's former headquarters. I'm not talking about a big city busting bomb which would wipe out a 20 mile radius. And I'm not suggestng a pathetic dirty bomb that would merely interfere with tourism. I'm talking about a bomb that would be within reach of "terrorists" so that it would give Russia plausible deniability. The bomb with no return address.

    Have you looked at how few containers are scanned for such devices? There are a thousand ways to get a nuclear device into NYC. Think about people smuggling such a device through Mexico or even Canada. Do you think sanctions aimed at getting the oligarchs to assasainate Putin is a good thing?

    At what point will a guy like Putin capitulate. The "conventional" policy debaters actually believe Putin will give up his idea of a Eurasian Union due to economic pressure. He doesn't seem to be afraid of NATO. Have they looked at a psychological profile of Putin? He thrives on adversity. He believes in doing unthinkable things. He does it fairly calmly. He does what he has to do. And when he finally blows up NYC he will be the first to decry terrorism and offer all kinds of help to the USA.

    In case there are security people tracking this controversial type of scenario - I have no connections what-so-ever with anyone who would even be remotely connected to such a plan. And this is what makes it even more terrifying. Ordinary minds can conceive of such diabolical schemes. Ordinary people without any connection to power structures can imagine the likelihood of such a scenario. Do you think Putin doesn't have a few tricks up his sleeve?

    It would be easier to bring a bomb into Manhattan then to figure out how to get a whole army into ancient Babylon.

    Hmmm. Maybe there is an unseen motivation for JW's to get out of Brooklyn.

  • scotoma


    I don't know how I came up with DJF.

    Got the first two letters right.

    Phoenetically esss and effff ARE similar.

  • kaik

    DJS you are very correct. Russia will feel the pain from international isolation. Its primary export, which energy and minerals, will suffer. Economy will enter recession. Putin expected Kiev to fall and Russia take over entire country like Crimea. This had not materialized. The war with Ukraine will weaken Russia considerabely. It is not like fighting Caucasus insurgency. Russia managed to put hostility among two biggest and most populous Slavic countries, and it will take generation to repair damage. Ask any southern Slavs what they think of Serbia. Putin is attempting to revive USSR and needs to show it for the masses. Additionally it is not ethnically homogenous country and any deep economic and social unrest will tear this country apart as it did with USSR. Anyone who thinks Russia can challange USA needs to have reality check. The same is puzzling why so many Westerners are so fascinated with Russia and openly support its conquest of its neighbors (Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia). Even in 1939 during division of Poland, West supported Stalin. It took war with Finland to kick USSR out of the League of Nations, only one country that was ever, EVER, kicked out of it. After war until today, it is the same. How many of Westerners would support German's conquest of Europe? Not so many. One reason behind it is that German crimes were put into trial and revealed to the humanity. 50 millions of victims in the name of the barbaric communism organized from Moscow NEVER recieved much attention.

  • metatron

    No, it's not about a new USSR. And Putin is not a madman. It's about the "Gentleman's Agreement".

    Russia has been invaded ENOUGH! They rightfully resent having a hostile alliance pushed up against their borders.

    The "Gentleman's Agreement" was an excellent example of how peace can be managed. Sadly, they should have gotten it in writing so that truly evil warmongers in the west (as with "F**k the EU!") would be stopped.

    Russia will compensate for sanctions and get by with the continuing support of China in particular.


  • kaik

    Russia had option to be a part of EU, NATO, and any world's organization. They decided not to, instead driven by ambition of madman recreating USSR. It became a lost possibility to be accepted as normal, democratic country. It is becoming the same as interwar Germany and looking to confrontation with every its neighbors.

    Every corner of this planet was invaded by one or another. Russia invaded every country east of France, and every Slavic capital in the past 200 years. Austria-Hungary was attacked by Russia in 1914 even without declaration of war fueling WWI. France was agressor during Napoleon, Germany under A.H. not to mention all these crazy bloodthirsty tyrants in Asia, Middle East, or Ancient past.

    What has EU to do with NATO enlargement? EU never wanted to expand into East at the first place. NATO and USA had an agreement with USSR, not with Russia. EU had not invaded anyone either and neither has a capability to do so. EU does not equal USA, nor West equal EU and NATO. If you cannot make any difference between these, all debates are pointless on this topic.

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