The effect we are having on the Watchtower is HUGE

by jwfacts 140 Replies latest watchtower beliefs

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  jwfacts

  I was inspired by a recent thread I know I aint gunna crumble the WT, but a girl can dream to look at the effect we as individuals are having on the Watchtower Society.

  3dogs1husband quoted a story to show that even helping only one person is worth it.

  It is encouraging to note that the one person you may have helped has lead to millions being helped, due to the power of compounding growth.

  Compounding growth is well illustrated by the “rice on a chessboard” problem. If you start with 1 grain of rice on square one, and double it to 2 on the second, 4 on the third, 8 on the fourth, by the last (64 th ) square there would be 18,446,744,073,709,551,615 grains of rice.

  Likewise, if you help one person out of the grip of the Watchtower this year, then next year you help one more and they help one, in a few years that is going to have a formidable result on the number of Jehovah’s witnesses. Just how much?

  Look at the following statistics. Between 1980 and 1995 growth quite consistently hovered around 5.6%. The Watchtower leaders would have quite reasonably predicted growth to remain at this level and therefore forecast that the 4,950,344 Witnesses in 1995 would have exceeded 11 million in 2010.

  However, factors affecting conversion and retention, such as Internet education, reduced average growth to 2.5% between 1995 and 2010. Instead of 11 million Jehovah’s witnesses, there were only 7 million - a difference of 4 million people. Growth has been 2 million instead of 6 million, just on third of that expected in 1995.

  Compounding growth has worked in the favour of the Watchtower society for decades. However, it is now considerably more difficult to bring someone into the organisation than it is to get someone out of it. JWs may be spending a billion hours preaching each year, but the hours we put in is having a far more effective result, to the tune of 4 million people in just 15 years.

  

  
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  nicolaou

  Nice work jwfacts.

  I'm sure in your first chart you meant to label the arrow as '4 million fewer' not 'less'. God, I'm so anally pedantic

  I'm pathetic, sorry man, sorry . . .
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  Terry

  In retail business managers are warned how devastating bad customer service can be as a result of word of mouth.

  Some call it the Rule of Ten.

  It goes like this: one dissatisfied customer is likely to complain to at least 10 of their friends or family members about bad service.

  Those 10 tell another 10 and so on snowballing the wave into a Tsunami of bad press.

  Jehovah's Witnesses have created their own wave of dissatisfaction with disfellowshipped ex-members, family members impacted by shunning, deaths by Blood policy, crazy predictions gone awry and flip-flop theology.

  It is easier to prove complaints due to Internet by reprinting actual magazine and book quotations IN THEIR OWN WORDS clearly showing that both sides of the corporate mouth are at odds with truth.
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  sizemik

  LOL Nic . . . great post JWFacts . . . I see DJ's drivel may have inspired you?

  Something we easily forget is the effect those who have left have on those who remain . . . as well as potential converts. Of course, the numbers who have left are growing exponentially as well . . . so the effect they have will grow similarly, even with a small contribution (JWN facebook etc)

  The net is certainly our weapon of choice . . . and the WTS has only a weak response for it. I look forward to that "actual" line flattening out more in the future . . . and eventually declining.
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  jwfacts

  Thank you Nic for your keen eye and Queen's English. I would like to say I chose less since fewer would not fit, but since that is not the reason I will try to adjust the graph tomorrow.
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  Hoffnung

  There are quite a few indicators that the society, although still growing in absolute numbers, is going down. The amount of biblestudies making it to baptism is in free fall at the moment. in 10 years the percentage has been halved all over (from 8% to 4%), in some countries it lost 2/3.
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  sir82

  Interesting.

  The bend point comes at 1995, when

  -- The internet "turned the corner" and became more universally available and user friendly (mid 90's anyway)

  -- The first "generation change" teaching was presented, "evidently" pushing the date for Armageddon back several decades

  -- The teaching on the "sheep and goats" was changed, "evidently" removing the sense of urgency about the JW preaching work
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  No Room For George

  Good thread, interesting numbers. Good post Terry, I never would have considered it from a customer service POV. In this day and age of easily accessible information, one would have to be deaf, blind, dumb, and crazy to convert and become a JW.
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  Mad Sweeney

  The bend point comes at 1995, when

  -- The internet "turned the corner" and became more universally available and user friendly (mid 90's anyway)

  -- The firstfourth "generation change" teaching was presented, "evidently" pushing the date for Armageddon back several decades

  -- The teaching on the "sheep and goats" was changed, "evidently" removing the sense of urgency about the JW preaching work

  Had to fix that one little detail but other than that, I think you make a great point and that the Borg sees it as well. They are bending over backwards to re-manufacture urgency about the imminent end and fear of the omnipresent Internet.
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  botchtowersociety

  1995 seems to coincide with when the Internet became popular.