I've been thinking more and looking at the Pew Survey data to try to get a better understanding of JW demographics in the USA and what this may mean for the future. Certain facts are making me actually think that the future of the WT in America may be better than I thought.
Before, I thought that the differences between the developed and developing countries would cause the literature to become less relavent to members in the USA and Europe. However, according to the survey data, JW demographics in the USA suggest that American JWs may be more accepting of this material than I thought. Also, the WT is well positioned for the demographic future. Here are my reasons:
1. Low income. JWs have lower income than any other group except for Historically Black Churches. Lower income means that the people will struggle to satisfy the basic requirements of living and paying bills. People who experience such anxiety are more likely to look to religion as a source of comfort or reassurance. This would apply especially to the WT religion, because it promises that the End will come "soon". Also, because other members are likely in the a similar financial position, you feel more camaraderie with your fellow believers. Also, much of the material that applies to poor people in the high growth developing countries also applies to poor people in developed countries.
2. Low education. Everyone already knows this, and this is probably highly correlated with (1). JWs have the absolute lowest number of members with undergraduate and graduate degrees. Basically, people with less education (poor understanding of science, little historical literacy, lack of critical thinking skills) are more likely to be convinced by JW arguments. The similarly low levels of education among the target demographic in both developed and developing countries allows the same publications and organizational stance to work in place that seem different.
3. Racial diversity. In the USA, JWs have the second largest proportion of African-American members (second only to Historically Black Churches) and the second highest proportion of Hispanics (second only to Roman Catholicism). Right now, the organization is about 50% Caucasian, 25% African-American, and 25% Hispanic. This amount of total diversity is unique. This mix also mirrors the demographic changes that will be happening in the coming decades in the USA. With a strong presence in these communities, the WT ahead of the curve and can take advantage of large growth in theses groups.
Furthermore, I think the above facts counteract the problem I noted earlier with printed materials becoming obsolete. Just as developing countries don't have the infrastructure to support widespread digital distribution and will likely be best served by paper publications for a while yet, poor people in the USA also have limited access to the internet. Hence, the WT will still have a market for paper magazines, unless e-readers get so cheap that it doesn't matter.
So in the USA, the WT might be fine. In fact, they were the fastest growing religion in 2008. (+2.25%, third party numbers) They will continue to loose educated people, their members will have low income, and the composition is going to be less white than ever before. This does cause other problems. The leadership of the WT is overwhelmingly white and American/European. It's possible that the fact that nearly all the top guys are old and white will limit future growth among minorities.
The WT faces another challenge in the Millennial generation. Young people are less religious then other generations were at the same age. They are also much more religiously pluralistic, and their idea of God is not as orthodox or certain as their elders. They are more accepting of homosexuality, less threatened by "Hollywood immorality", more accepting of pornography, more likely to accept evolution, more technologically savvy, and view a college education as basically a given. All of this is contrary to JW beliefs. JWs are the most certain that God exists, the most creationist, and the most opposed to homosexuality of all religious groups surveyed. So, even with favorable demographics in general, the WT is going to have trouble converting the next generation.
JWs also have the worst youth retention rate of all religions. Something like 63% of the people who were raised as a Witness no longer identify as such. This means that the WT will need to continue to convert to make up for those that leave. Combined with the Millennials, this will be an issue.
Someone also mentioned the high number of women. JWs are 60% women, which is the second highest of any religion. It is slightly ironic that they have this many women but prevent them from holding leadership positions.
Globally, the WT is very weak in Asian countries. Places like China and India will become much more geopolitically and culturally important in the future. Right now, the WT is poorly represented there. Fittingly, these countries are very pro-technology and are home to a booming class of rich and middle class people along with those in poverty. They also highly value education and have histories of non-Western religions, making the transition to a type of Christianity more difficult. Basically, these countries have the highest growth on the planet, and they are currently nightmare locations for the WT.
So, I don't think my original point about digital vs. printed publications will be a important as first stated. How the WT handles the shift to digital distribution will be critical, but any negative affect will likely be blunted because of certain demographic factors. In the USA, the WT membership will continue to become poorer, less educated, and racially diverse. This will likely force further cost cutting by the WT due to smaller amounts of donations. Youth retention is bad, and the prospectes for youth conversion are similarly bad.
I think the WT could help youth retention by instituting some sort of socially mandatory "coming of age" labor. The LDS basically pressures all males into going on a 2 year mission after high school. There is a large amount of social stigma attached to those who don't go and it is tied in with how eligible for marriage a man will be afterwards. The experience is also challenging enough that it would help solidify the faith of those who go and weed out free loaders. (Like bootcamp) I know JWs "encourage" young people to pioneer after school, but there isn't *that* much pressure to actually do it. That is, no one (that I know) would look at you weird if you admitted to getting a job after school instead of being a pioneer.
Another idea I had was that the WT could make the steps required to "climb the ladder" within the organization better defined. Building on the Watchtower U idea, a "degree" from this (not free) school could be used to make the local leadership more competent. By emulating parts of the "worldly" process of education and career advancement, they might be able to better hold on to ambitious or talented youth. If the WT strengthens the amount of institutional pride given to those who graduated from the WT school and allows them to advance faster within the organization, they may get people who would be distracted by external goals to stick with them.
What do you think?
