Challenges Facing the Watchtower Org

by eric356 96 Replies latest watchtower beliefs

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  metatron

  Exactly so. They print and print and print but do they get enough money for this stuff? Keep in mind that printing this junk costs tens of millions every month. If they don't get donations, what will they do? Keep printing and pretending that Armageddon will come and save them? Sell off assets and fund this financial drain? Convert more people who will absorb more literature and magazines and create even bigger losses?

  Unbelieveable as it may sound now, could they suddenly develop a financial motivation for ending the "preaching work"? Or at least downsizing it?

  Keep awake and keep observing. Keep looking to see if the tipping point for the Watchtower has finally been reached .

  metatron
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  bobld

  I agree eric.Like earlier generation,secular skills,yeah all those smart Japan and the computers age(1980) developed a lot of things for the dummies in WT land.Japan has been on the decline.All growth is in 3rd world countries however I think the WT will be around for a while until the smart ones take control of it.

  B
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  Sour Grapes

  Well thought out.

  Thanks,

  SG
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  kurtbethel

  They could franchise out everything. Mother org provides guidelines for product with local franchise providing detailed delivery based on local needs.
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  neverendingjourney

  Good analysis!

  

  However, you appear to assume that the evolution of the Watchtower movement will be steady and gradual. I don't disagree that this is one way in which matters could play out. Nevertheless, I think there is a good possibility of a tipping-point, game-changing event down the road that could figuratively blow things up. Before you think I'm being unrealistic, allow me to explain.

  If we postulate (and I do) that the governing body members believe in the Watchtower organization whole-heartedly, as opposed to being cynical manipulators, let's try to put ourselves in their shoes. Each is clearly more delusional than your average member, as evidenced by their claiming to be anointed despite the strong institutional pressure against such claim. Moreover, they've invested their lives into this belief system. It is becoming quite clear that the current JW belief system has failed. What would we do if we were governing body members? We could keep pretending like nothing's changed, keep repeating the same ol' "the end is right around the corner" mantra, or we could do what the Bible Students did when 1914 didn't pan out: re-invent the religion in significant ways.

  Big, significant changes are harder to bring about in Watchtower today because of its rule-by-committee structure. From what we know, 2/3 of the GB must agree on any changes to traditional policies. But, what if you have several strong personalities on the GB who start believing that Jehovah is personally using them to correct something or another in the organization? We can easily see how the seeds of discord can be planted and could potentially lead to power struggles at the highest levels of the organization. If you combine that with an already-weakening faith of the membership in the Western world, and perhaps a decline in membership/donations that serves to create a quasi-panic situation, it's not hard to envision a scenario where significant changes are brought about in the Watchtower organization in a fairly short period of time, perhaps along the lines of what happened at the World Wide Church of God.

  Again, I'm not saying this scenario is any more likely than the more gradual scenario you described above. I'm just saying it's a possibility we should consider as well.
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  straightshooter

  Very interesting scenerios. The WTS will have to change as the future goes, but I do not feel that the WTS will disappear. There just are too many followers who will stay loyal no matter what the WTS does.
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  Doubting Bro

  I agree with your analysis eric356. In addition to point 4, the retention rate among young JWs is horrific with them losing over 60% according to Pew. So not only are they facing a brain drain in terms of a diversity of experience that adult converts would bring, but they're facing an aging population. Couple that with trend among the 2nd and 3rd generation JW males to not "reach out" and you're looking at the low level leadership positions of elders getting older and older by the day. They'll need to adjust to that as well. I think that's why they consolidated the book study.

  neverending - I agree that what you've described certainly could happen but that will depend on who the move onto the GB. Right now there are what, 8 members? I think this is the lowest number in 30 years. They will likely appoint some more, maybe after Barr dies. The new appointees could change the dynamic. But, in order for your senario to play out (in my opinion) is to have someone very creative like Franz. And, that's really what upper level management in the WTS is sorely lacking. Just take a look at the latest "generation" teaching. It's so backward that it really doesn't make sense to even the most devoted JWs. Now, Franz was nuts, but at least when you read his work, it was at least creative in a kind of conspiracy theory sort of way. Wacky but with just enough logic that some would buy it!

  I continue to believe that while the WTS will look much different in 20 years, they will still be around reeking havoc.
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  sir82

  Now see, a rational, sane organization would welcome feedback like this, and act on it.

  But of course, this being the Watchtower, if a JW were to present such information to anyone at CO level or higher, he'd get a stern look, a querulous cry of "Don't you believe this is JEHOVAH'S ORGANIZATION?!?!?!", and if he escaped without losing any "privileges of service" it'd be a minor miracle.
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  eric356

  Neverending, I generally agree. I take the more gradual viewpoint for two reasons. First, it's basically impossible to predict game-changing scenarios because they are rare and unexpected by definition. There could be a power struggle, or a reinvention of the religion, but I'm not putting any money on it. I wouldn't be disappointed if it happened, though! Second, it comes down to whether the leadership (assuming they put membership growth as the bottom line goal) thinks that they can maintain growth (or limit losses) better by either: (a) continuing to lead people along with constant expectation like they do now or (b) reinterpreting some doctrines to deemphasize The End of This System of Things and move in the direction of mainstream religions that focus on quality of life.

  I think (b) is less likely because: (1) Organizations would rather stay the same than change. It's just a fact of bureaucracy. (2) The JW religion is a relatively high cost or high commitment faith (see here) and it seems like many Witnesses enjoy the "hardcore" "end times" nature of their religion. The WT has effectively differentiated their "brand" by focusing on the end of the World and requiring lots of effort from rank and file members. Giving up these things would dilute the core of their "brand" and weaken the social bonds and peer pressure that's required to maintain the congregations. (3) As I said before, much of the future growth is going to be in developing countries. These people do not know of the long history of failed prophecies by the WT or their other past transgressions. Additionally, an "end times" religion is going to be very effective in countries with high political and economic instability. People are looking for a way out of the problems they experience in everyday life. That perfectly describes the society in the growth countries.

  These facts make me think that the WT will maintain its general flavor and direction in the future. The lure of huge growth in Africa and South America combined with the fact that those populations are receptive to "extreme" religion seems too good to pass up. After all, growth is growth, right? Why should the WT favor the native market (USA and Europe) when the (larger) global market is receptive to your current product? Less effort, more growth. I could see the USA-centric WT leadership being nostalgic or sentimental about their history as an American religion, but are they willing so sacrifice the numbers to appease Western-minded JWs? It seems to me that they would rather take the global growth and use it so pad the numbers when they experience inevitable losses in the West. There will always be plenty of people in the USA and Europe who are looking for an authoritarian, high commitment religion to belong to, just not as many as in the past.

  Really, this is the same problem that faces multinational corporations (though the WT is a multinational corporation). In an ideal world, the WT would be able to cater its message to the market. More sober, life-oriented material for developed countries, and fire-from-the-sky stuff in the developing world. I think some of this diversity in approach is inevitable, as it already happens to a degree. However, the WT likes to brag that it is "one organization" with homogenous teachings and the same literature for everyone. By doing to, they have limited one of the tools that a regular corporation would use to satisfy different tastes. They could change this, but it would fracture their unified structure. Also, if you allow branches to cater excessively to their home market, I think you risk larger divisions among the leadership and the rank and file. I could imagine higher ups from the USA arguing with those from Africa over whether a certain Watchtower article should be published. Religions love to break into smaller sects, and I think the WT realizes that relaxing control over publication material would risk bureaucratic disintegration.

  All of this thinking assumes that the leadership is competent. I think that was truer in the past then it is now. The Society frowns upon learning and intellectualism in general, so I don't really think it has the brainpower or leadership skill at hand to deal with upcoming changes. If they do, this person or persons is going to have to start changing things or accepting change pretty soon.

  I also believe that the GB sincerely thinks they are "God's organization". This just makes the situation worse. It's almost as if they believe that Jehovah thinks they are "too big to fail". It's basically a problem of moral hazard. If you think that you are really on God's side, there might be less attention paid to examining worst case scenarios or possible failure modes. No normal corporation believes that its business model is supported by God, and fully realizes that it might fail. This forces them to evaluate all possible future situations, even those that are unfavorable to the company. I think the GB is deluded enough to think that God will just "provide" and make everything work out somehow. Sitting around praying and reading Bible passages is not going to be a substitute for actually analyzing your situation and developing plans to deal with it.

  I don't want this to sound like I'm hoping that the WT considers these facts and then starts adjusting itself to maintain healthy growth in the future. I want the leadership to be a bunch of idiots who will barely realize their situation until it's too late to salvage. I want them to struggle and spend all the money their predecessors accumulated like the prodigal son wasting his inheritance. I want them to make a bunch of poor leadership decisions that will alienate their membership. In a perfect world, their little fantasy world would fall apart so completely that the GB would be out on the street in the unemployment line.

  I could also be totally wrong. The WT might have already thought of all this and is formulating plans to deal with these issues. But I doubt it.
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  streets76

  NEJ: re-invent the religion in significant ways

  This is something I've been thinking about a lot lately. They need a new brand, or at least a new version number. Jehovah's Witnesses 2.0, if you will.

  JW 2.0 would be different in two significant ways.

  One: Change in doctrinal emphasis. Still keep "the end is probably just around the corner" mantra, but don't make it the focus. Put the focus on the family unit. Throw away all the mindless things that make the typical JW family so disfunctional, like the no-birthdays rule, no-holidays rule, no-higher-education rule, no-blood rule, and especially the shunning/disfellowshipping policy, which is the biggest destroyer of JW families. (It goes without saying that the child abuse coverups will need to stop as well.)

  Two: This is the major change, and has to do with the WTBS business model. The old JW 1.0 model of peddling printed literature is a dinasaur of the past. The new money-maker for JW 2.0 is higher education! And the beauty is, they can make this tie in with their End Time doctrine.

  What will the world need after Armageddon? Smart people who will already be prepared to step in and start the clean-up at the beginning of the thousand-year reign. Not PhD philosophy-smart, though. They need mechanical-smart. Engineer-smart. Most of the same skills the typical two year community college specializing in providing.Except, the JW kids won't go to the local community college. They'll go to the Watchtower University (or whatever it will be called). They can locate it in Brooklyn or upstate New York or whereever. The object will be to teach the kids a skill that is valuable now and will still be of value after Armageddon.

  Here's the kicker: the loyal WTU graduate goes out into the working world, makes a decent wage, and tithes a certain (and significant) percentage to the WTBTS. He can earn a solid middle-class wage and provide for his family, who by the way are solidly JW and no longer dysfunctional (see part one). No more minimum-wage window washing, carpet cleaning careers.

  WTU is the new Bethel! The folks back home will be so proud that little Johnny got accepted at WTU. A few years later, he returns home, gets married to sweet little sister Susie, has a nice job and two little JWs, loyally sends his tithe back to headquarters (and is no longer hounded about spending ten mindless hours a month in field service)...and the cycle repeats.

  This is similar to the Mormon model, I guess, though JW 2.0 should aim for more mainstream and less whacky. Look at the success of Brigham Young University. Look at the success of Liberty University, which was started as a podunk fundamentalist bible college and is now (amazingly) a fully accredited university. Jerry Falwell (the late founder of Liberty University) was a bigotted racist intolerant miserable bible-thumping son-of-a-moonshiner jackass, but he was no fool. He died a very wealthy man, and his heirs are doing just fine, thank you.

  The key to part two is that Watchtower University will need to get accredidation. But if BYU and LU can get it with the crap they teach, anyone can get it.

  It can be done.