When will the crashing and burning of this organization begin? (page 6)

dozy

Much as I would love to see the WTBTS implode , I just can't see it happening in the short term. They generated a 3.4% increase last year and I would guess it would be similar this year. Not all of these are poverty stricken third world recruits either - many are the disaffected and lonely in the the first world or immigrants. (I honestly can't remember the last semi-normal person to be baptised who wasn't a born-in.)

The fact is that the WTBTS is a religion (or a pseudo religion) and the normal rules of commercial life (boom / bust / competition / evolution) just don't apply. They have set the bar very high for people to leave while establishing what is something of a broad church so both zealots and apathetic JWs can easily co-exist. The system of shunning critics works well at suppressing any dissent. And the emphasis on evangelism will always bring in some new members as well as the 30% or so of JW children who join up.

A schism or a financial scandal would make something of a difference or a big doctrinal shift (eg letting blood transfusions be a conscience issue). I don't doubt there are brothers in foreign Bethels ( those that the WTBTS haven't closed yet) who are fed up of Brooklyn and that there is a lot of dubious financial dealings below the surface. But in truth even a catastrophic event would have little impact - maybe a 10% decrease (such as happened post'75). And the WTBTS has had 130 years of experience in sweeping problems under the carpet and projecting a positive image. GB members with dodgy personal habits (such as Greenlees and Chitty) are just put out to pasture with a pay-off and a gag. Changes in doctrines are explained as "new light" and given a positive gloss. And the constant brainwashing / conditioning every week , week after week , year after year keeps the drones happy and loyal.

moshe

JWs are addicted to the paradise earth doctrine, so they will never give it up as along as the WT keeps dishing it out. The JWs actually demaned the new generation doctrine in order to keep their dream alive- it didn't matter to them how flimsy the reasoning was, THEY TOOK IT, hook line and sinker.

Mad Sweeney

We are the hollow men
We are the stuffed men
Leaning together
Headpiece filled with straw. Alas!
Our dried voices, when
We whisper together
Are quiet and meaningless
As wind in dry grass
Or rats’ feet over broken glass
In our dry cellar

Shape without form, shade without colour,
Paralysed force, gesture without motion;

Those who have crossed
With direct eyes, to death’s other Kingdom
Remember us—if at all—not as lost
Violent souls, but only
As the hollow men
The stuffed men.
. . . This is the way the world ends
Not with a bang but a whimper.

~TS Eliot

sacolton

Once they sell their assets and their money source dries up (already happening) ... the WATCHTOWER will collapse.

donuthole

I agree that youth retention is a serious problem. The thing to keep in mind about increases is that the statistics are for "publishers". It is almost a given that child born to Witness parents will at some point become a publisher. However that doesn't mean that they will go on to get baptised and if they do avoid being df'd or falling away during their late teens, early adulthood.

Right before I left I noticed the upcoming generation of kids weren't very zealous. Yeah they were going through the motions but didn't seem to have much ambition to "reach out". This ties into second point that the Organization is hurting for men to take the lead. They are losing the elders/servants they do have left and right and there just aren't very many up and comers to take their place.

Again, retention is a big problem in the organization. As the elders become stretched thin, their Organizational load increases, and usually one of the first things to go is actually looking out for the flock. It becomes easy for folks to slip out the back door due to depression, fatigue, and problems in the congregation.

I don't know about the science thing. I do know a cluster of individuals that left over the science issues. I frequently visit Digg.com (or at least did prior to their most recent change) and have observed that their is a strong lean toward atheism among young people. I don't know how much this trend has infiltrated the congregation. I do know that while you may scare grandma away from the Internet you aren't going to keep junior off and this opens them up to all sorts of ideas and vices that may lead them away from the Organization ...

Meeting Junkie No More

The organization is like a bicycle - it falls over if isn't rolling forward.

Damn, I like that! 'Jehovah's Chariot', if it ever was advancing, seems to be doing some serious wobbling, for all the things pointed out above by all you brilliant posters. I mean, the apathy and 'lack of zeal' of even some of the die-hards is astounding. Sure, they're at every meeting, and yes, they're droning on from the platform, but they are all TIRED and the whole thing is one big charade. More and more of the oldtimers are realizing the end (for them personally) is indeed just around the corner. Once these matriarchs/patriarchs pass on, I've seen whole families LEAVE. There goes your 'theocratic heritage'.

Yes, I think her (the WT's) deeds have massed clear up to heaven, and in ONE HOUR, her plagues will come. Hallelujah!

Clint Bussey

You forgot to mention number four. Which is the "Day of the Dead" on October 31st 2010. A bunch of us ex-JW's are talking about visiting JW family at their homes and/or at the KH and not baking down if they tell us to leave. And we are just going to talk with them and say hey and pay them a visit, not to argue about religion. Mark your calender. They view us as dead, so on October 31 2010 the Dead will be resurrected and will walk amongst the Watchtower. Check out this video explaining the "Day of the Dead".

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=APR7Jdommzk

agonus

They're definitely dying. It's a slow, painful death, but it is inevitable. It's the brain drain: Once the brain dies, the body isn't too far behind. They've got no one with the imagination of a Fred Franz - no fresh ideas, no innovation, more and more control and pettiness... for me the evidence is overwhelming that they're utterly committed to continuing to dig that hole.

notverylikely

at their homes and/or at the KH and not baking down if they tell us to leave

That's trespassing is you are asked to leave.

wobble

See the thread by Clint Bussey on the OCt31st plan !

When will the crashing and burning of this organization begin?

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