There IS a problem with global warming... it stopped in 1998

by Elsewhere 109 Replies latest jw friends

  • AuldSoul
    AuldSoul

    SWALKER,

    I don't mean any offense, but you are buying into a short-range thinking on environmental issues. In many ways (not the least of which, tiny lifespan) we are still very much like apes.

    Looking back can help us project forward better than looking at present (present being defined as within the last 4,000 or so years). When environmental pressures shift, does life stop or adapt? Those lifeforms that adapt, survive. Those that don't, die out.

    We cannot see clearly what impacts we will cause as a species even to the end of our own lifespan, much less into the future. Since you take the view you have stated, please explain what approach you would have recommended for scientists in the 1870s dealing with the horse manure problem. It sounds incredible and fecetious to us because we have the luxury of seeing how it all turned out (up 'til now). But for them, it was a horrible reality that had to be dealt with immediately! It was the "emminent doom" environmental disaster waiting to happen of that era.

    What should they have done about it, seeing that they were totally clueless that within 40 years Ford would be rolling Model-T off the assembly line as everyman's automobile and that shortly thereafter people would be selling manure for fertilizing purposes that used to be given away for free?

    Similarly, any action we take in reaction to a present environmental trend that presupposes that conditions will not be significantly different in 100 years is, in my opinion, foolhardy in the extreme and a waste of time, energy, and money that could be much better spent elsewhere. The only thing models of impending environmental doom can be based on is the reality we live in today. History proves that our modern reality will not exist in 40 years. Since the changes are speeding up, it is likely our reality will not exist in 30 years or less.

    NO ONE in the 1870s could have predicted the advent of the Interstate road system, the German autobahn, Interpol, Sputnik, telecommunications satellites orbiting the earth, personal computers on people's desks in their homes, OnStar, GPS, wireless phones, airplanes...and there is similarly no way for us to predict what is yet to come.

    So while I am all for personal decisions to conserve, I am not in favor of legislated conservation. While I actively engage in activities that limit my own use of natural resources, I do not advocate for legislated restriction of usage. Because I recognize that when it comes to knowing what will be different in the future I am as dumb as an ape. The only difference between myself and an ape when it comes to the future is that I know for sure it will be different.

    Respectfully,
    AuldSoul

  • DanTheMan
    DanTheMan
    Until you find a way to discover where evolution will end up and what sorts of adaptations will become necessary, you have to face the reality that we have no clue what anything we choose to do or choose not to do will lead to (as a species). Since humanity cannot project whether a given impact on the earth will be beneficial or harmful in the long term, humanity cannot effectively state knowledge of what will or will not harm the earth.

    Hmmmmm...how could anybody have known for sure that New Orleans would get hit with a bigass storm that would overwhelm its shoddy levee system? Could a "Let's not do anything if we can't be absolutely certain that the expenditure will pay off" attitude of inaction have been that city's downfall?

  • AuldSoul
    AuldSoul

    DanTheMan,

    Hurricanes are a risk on any coastline. Building a city below sea level and expecting a hurricane NOT to decimate it (should one ever hit) is lunacy. New Orleans being a disaster area was not an environmental trend (the topic under discussion) it was a foregone conclusion. My grandfather explained to me what would happen to New Orleans—and why—if a hurricane (hair-ee-can, as he pronounced it) ever hit the city when I was 11 years old. That was 22 years ago.

    Let's see, we are running pumps 24/7 to keep the city from flooding and keep sewage draining (which we also have to pump out in some areas). Yeah, we'll weather a hurricane no problem.

    If the levee had been reinforced and heightened, New Orleans would have been a huge swimming pool. You know what my grandfather said years ago? "They can't fix it, there is nothing they can do but move the city. If they don't that place is going to get hit someday, and it's gonna be awful." He died the December before Katrina hit. He was a smart fellow for a farm boy who plowed fields with a mule and plowshare through the 50s, kept bees through the 60s and 70s, and ran a lawn care and landscaping business through the 80s and 90s, but he didn't know the total volume of atmospheric greenhouse gas anymore than you do, or than Carl Sagan did, or than the signatories to the Kyoto Protocol did.

    The stated objective of the protocol is the "stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system." Unfortunately, we don't how much concentration of greenhouse gas there is in the atmosphere, so how will they ever know whether they acheived their objective? The Protocol doesn't say. We also don't know for certain that these gasses are interfering with the climate system, so how will they ever know if they acheived their objective? The Protocol doesn't say.

    What it does say is that nations that become signatories must reduce emissions of certain gasses, but nowhere demonstrates a direct correlation between emission of these gasses and increased concentration of the gasses in the atmosphere or interference with the climate system.

    So, the Protocol addresses a problem assumed (but not proven) to exist by a measure assumed (but not proven) to mitigate the assumed (but not proven) damaging effects of the assumed problem.

    The Protocol is an example of multiple unproven assumptions forming a circle of seeming logic where at each stage there is no proof of the problem.

    Understand, I am not characterizing Global Warming as "the problem." I am characterizing emissions as "the problem," emissions reduction as the "mitigating measure," and Global Warming caused by Greenhouse Gas as the "effects of the assumed problem."

    Global Warming is a problem. But reducing emmissions is only a potential solution if emissions is provably the cause of, or even a significant factor in, Global Warming.

    Respectfully,
    AuldSoul

  • FreeWilly
    FreeWilly

    Sixofnine:

    "I'm curious, w/o consulting any other sources, would you and Megadude give a synopsis of what you find so repellant about the treaty?"


    Great question. Hopefully in my answer you will see that it NOT because I'm an "Industrialist" (I'm not), a neo-con (hardly) or any other ignorant assessments typically leveled at any non-conforming voices. In my own words...

    Kyoto (in my opinion) would be perhaps the worst expenditure in human history. It's cost is difficult to truly comprehend. Some have used GDP as a reference. Others have measured it in Dollars or in cost per capita. Whatever the measure it's a very large amount. I know you said no references, so I won't quote any. However, one of the most comprehensive treatments of cost can be found in an a paper written by William D. Nordaus who is the Sterling Professor of Economics at Yale University. He presented his paper at a GW conference. He is a very highly respected environmental economist quoted in both sides of the debate. An exhaustive (and dry) coverage of costs can be found here. FLAWS China, Mexico, Brazil and other developing nations who are also, btw, large polluters, are not bound by this agreement. Kyoto would be a big boon for them, creating a massive economic and trade advantage.

    ASSUMPTIONS
    The scientific basis on which Kyoto is based is in considerable doubt. Computer models used to postulate the effects of global temperatures have yet to yield results anywhere close to accurate. Yet these are one of the main tools used to establish the effects of CO2 on temperature. Only recently has Water Vapor been added to a few of these models. Yet Water vapor, by far, remains the most influential greenhouse gas(95% ! ). Water vapor is unaffected by human influence.

    THE SUN Many climatologists believe, as I suspect, that the Sun is responsible for rising temperatures. I'm not aware of any that doubt the relation. Please look at the graph (earlier post) that shows the Sun's activity with Global Temperatures. Does this look like a coincidence? Incidentally, CO2 does NOT follow this same temperature pattern. In fact, during the 1930's thru 1940's Earths average Temps went down while CO2 level went up. What changed? - the Sun's radiance. Now ask yourself how people will feel if it turns out that CO2 has little affect on the climate at all? How will they look at all the money wasted? Do you think they were bamboozled? Remember we are currently at some of the lowest CO2 levels in Earths history (yes that's true). Ice ages have happened with atmospheric CO2 levels far higher (4000ppm+) than our current ~375 ppm.

    COST The cost of Kyoto is crippling. For just the US it is estimated to cost 2.2 Trillion Dollars between now and 2050. Or, put another way, like US fighting 5 more Iraq wars. Canada, New Zealand and European signatories have recently released alarming cost estimations for their countries that they will struggle to meet. I suspect abiding countries will not be able to keep the commitment - time will tell.

    Summary: IT COSTS A WHOLE LOT! BENEFIT

    So, if the entire world was diligent about implementing Kyoto, what exactly will all of this cost buy? Will it stabilize atmospheric CO2? Will it stop GW? What are we getting for human history's largest expenditure? The answer: 6 years Yep, implementing Kyoto will, (if IPCC assumptions are correct -unlikely) delay Earths current warming trend by 6 years. It doesn't reverse anything. It's not a solution, it's a delay of the inevitable.... by 6 years. And as Auldsoul pointed out, this assumed delay is highly speculative. WHY? Perhaps the question should be what would happen if we did nothing? Would you believe that despite all of the doomsday scenarios forwarded, GW is expected (by some studies) to yield a net-benefit?
    I know you didn't ask for them, by accepted data for everything I mentioned can be referenced. Just ask.

    -FW

  • DanTheMan
    DanTheMan
    But reducing emmissions is only a potential solution if emissions is provably the cause of, or even a significant factor in, Global Warming.


    I go back to my hurricane analogy. There was no demonstrable, certifiable proof that NO would ever get hit with a hurricane, or that there was some super invention right around the corner that would make the need for levees obsolete for that matter. I would say the same of the topic at hand. While nobody can say with absolute certainty that emissions from fossil fuels is a significant factor in GW, does that mean that we should wait until we have computers powerful enough and programmed accurately enough that we can know with absolutely no doubt? What if it's too late by then? The majority of persons who study global climatology seem to be pretty convinced that emissions are a significant contributor to GW. How certain do we have to be? Is there a certainty percentage that we haven't hit yet?

    Unfortunately, we don't how much concentration of greenhouse gas there is in the atmosphere, so how will they ever know whether they acheived their objective

    -- edited to tone down sarcasm -- Can you elaborate on this? I remember having read both in school and in various scientific publications that our atmospher has X amount of Nitrogen, Y amount of C02, Z amount of 02, etc....I was under the impression that scientists had figured that all out a long time ago. And, regarding the Kyoto accords, there seems to be a double standard here -- people here seem to be as certain that the costs will be devastating and not worth it as they are doubtful that GW will have devastating effects on humanity. How do you *know* that it will be so bad to adopt the measures?

  • SWALKER
    SWALKER

    Correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought there was a huge hole in the ozone due to human created gases, thus letting in harmful sun rays, causing many problems. Are you saying that the sun caused the damage in the first place?

    http://www.atm.ch.cam.ac.uk/tour/part3.html

    Where is the scientific record of the CO2 amount during the last Ice Age? How was that monitored?

    Swalker

  • AuldSoul
    AuldSoul
    a huge hole in the ozone due to human created gases

    Mostly cow flatulence, SWALKER. Not aerosol spray cans, cow farts. Plus we now know that these holes have opened before and will again, the earth does replenish ozone naturally. Besides, holes in the ozone don't cause Global Warming, they cause localized increase in a certain frequency of radiation reaching the earth—the larger the hole, the more area of the crust is hit by this type of radiation (deemed harmful).

    Where is the scientific record of the CO2 amount during the last Ice Age?

    Would you believe, in ice?

    Unfortunately, we don't how much concentration of greenhouse gas there is in the atmosphere, so how will they ever know whether they acheived their objective

    That wasn't intended as sarcasm, DantheMan. I have not seen any data presented showing the increase of atmospheric greenhouse gas since the 1950s. I have only seen widely publicized data of increased emissions and a whole lot of conclusions drawn about the negative atmospheric impacts of these emissions from very little atmospheric science. But I have asked for the data. From several sources. And I still have no data.

    So which field of scientific endeavor would know the atmospheric concentrations of certain elements? I decided to find out. I discovered that "weather balloons" (although in a more modern form now) are still used by climatologists to collect samples of conditions in the atmospeheric strata. Climatologists are the scientists best qualified for predicting negative climate impacts from chemical interactions with the atmosphere. Why is their input based on the fulfilled prophecy of "sharp increases in the next ten years" that were predicted in the early 90s noticably lacking from the discussions? Why are even the climatologists who support greenhouse gas as the cause pointing to emissions instead of (what should be) clear increases in atmospherically accumulated gas?

    Oddly, climatologists are the most noted holdouts when it comes to jumping on the greenhouse gas bandwagon. Why? They should know better than anyone what the effects of these chemicals in the atmosphere will be on the climate. The reason that the statistics of atmospheric gasses are not being published and emissions are being focused on so strongly by anti-emissions activist groups is because the models presented for Global Warming in the early 90s on which the Kyoto Protocol was largely based are now proven faulty.

    So far, each predictive model about the increases of accumulated greenhouse gasses has proven incorrect. As has the correlation between increasing greenhouse gas emissions collecting in the atmosphere and aberrant weather patterns. There is no question global warming is occuring. There is no question it is creating aberrant weather patterns. There is no proof, as yet, linking this reality that we are currently experiencing to greenhouse gasses anywhere, but most especially in the atmosphere. The amounts of gasses have declined. The aberrant weather effects continue.

    Climatologists have been forced to examine another possible cause very closely since the initial alleged culprit cannot be proven at fault. We are warming in concert with solar activity. There is a provable and easily discernible direct correlation between the two which is markedly absent from the emissions theory.

    or that there was some super invention right around the corner that would make the need for levees obsolete for that matter.

    Actually, there is certifiable proof that everywhere along the gulf coast has been and will be hit by a hurricane. Ask your favorite climatologist. It is only a matter of time. Every location on that coast will be hit again eventually. It isn't a question of whether, but when. As stated by the FEMA Report well prior to Katrina, in point of fact.

    As far as a superinvention that would make levees obselete, we have much better success harnessing the power sources for our methods of conveyance than harnessing the ocean. As I said before, the two are not similar in complexity. Sea level exists, the gargantuan power of our oceans is something we are centuries from taming. Some of NO was built below sea level.

    Is it conceivable we might someday develop an invention that could move NO out of the way or raise it bove sea level? Yes. Is it possible that we could find a way to place an eco-shield of some sort that allowed for air transfer, sunlight, and rain but which put NO in a bubble against sea-water? Yes. But short of one of those two solutions an awful lot of houses were going to be submerged when a hurricane hit NO. More would have been completely submerged if the levee were built higher.

    I doubt we are going to power a shield like the one necessary with fossil fuels, if you get my drift. Which means long before that technology is developed there would be no need for the Kyoto Protocol.

    The power sources and filtration systems already exist that would render the Kyoto Protocol obselete except for the worst offending nations who would still use outdated technology, but those nations haven't signed anyway. That means the Accords fail to meet their objective no matter what the signatory nations do. The expense of those existing technologies is prohibitive currently. So, it isn't quite the same thing as proposing that a non-existent technology would suddenly become available. It is a matter of finding ways of making existing technologies more cost-effective to implement and making better technologies in the process.

    The first thing I asked for in this discussion was atmospheric concentrations from 10 years ago to compare with atmospheric concentrations today. Not emissions, because unless the gasses are collecting in the atmosphere it can't be affecting the climate (per the Kyoto treaty). This is a very key piece of evidence that I have been unable to find stated clearly by any scientist. It should be easy to find, this is—after all—the WHOLE case of the Kyoto treaty.

    If you find those sharp increases in atmospheric concentrations of gasses (not in a projected model, but in actual measurements by comparison between ten years or so) and show me a credible source of that information (I am pretty liberal about credibility) I will admit that I'm wrong on this point and acknowledge that greenhouse gasses may be the primary source of Global Warming. This is the missing link in their argument, and without it the whole argument falls flat.

    It is the link they haven't shown. I have it on fair authority that it is because they know the predictions aren't materializing in the atmosphere. But I always like to be proven wrong, because then I get to choose to let my misconceptions go and become right. It takes proof, though. An opinion worth having is worth fighting for.

    Respectfully,
    AuldSoul

  • SWALKER
    SWALKER

    Well there you have it everyone...discussion is over per AS. He seems to be an authority on every subject out there...by the way AS, what was your major in college?

    It kind of reminds me of this:

    Respectfully,

    Swalker

  • AuldSoul
    AuldSoul

    I hope to hell this discussion isn't over, SWALKER. I asked for proof of accumulating atmospheric greenhouse gasses in my fourth post on this thread. Not one shred has surfaced. Got any?

    Here's an easy science ("hard data") question for you: By what percentage did the total volume of earth's "greenhouse gasses" increase or decrease within the last five years. I mean, they are tracking this somehow, right? This should be an easy one, because we all KNOW that greenhouse gasses are increasing...so, what is the total volume of earth's atmospheric greenhouse gasses in 2000 versus total volume in 2005?

    Well? I've asked several times. If the assertion is that accumulation is happening because of emissions then there will be proof in the data.

    SWALKER: He seems to be an authority on every subject out there

    As far as I know, I haven't claimed to be an authority on any subject except the Watchtower Bible and Tract Society's nearly 10-year long Associate membership to the UN/DPI. But I have an opinion that is defensible on an awful lot of subjects. On discussion forums people discuss. People without opinions or with opinions they'd rather keep to themselves post fluff. People who have opinions and strongly held viewpoints discuss them.

    Is it offensive to you that I don't share your view? Should we all just give over, join environmentalist cults and communes, and spend the rest of our lives congratulating ourselves on keeping those dreaded greenhouse gasses out of the sky as we roast under the increasing heat of the sun?

    I don't want to force you to agree with me. I just want you to admit that there is a possibility you are wrong, that you have believed a set of facts that is misleading. If you have proof that there is a sharp increase in accumulated atmospheric greenhouse gasses within the last ten years, I will change my viewpoint. I already said so, in my last post.

    I'm sure I have MANY views that differ from yours, but I am not your enemy.

    Respectfully,
    AuldSoul

  • SWALKER

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