You are spot on the money BB. I am sure there will be a minority of dubs who might start being harsher with some relatives/associates. I am also sure there will be some who will mistakenly think they need to shun all inactive ones. I get the feeling however that actually most will dream on through the talk, hardly notice it and the status quo will remain. It's far more of a trigger point for the exJW community than those inside.
There will probably be a WT down the line repeating the counsel which will get more attention but I doubt that will be able to be interpreted any differently to the content of the talk.