MeanMrMustard

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Posts by MeanMrMustard

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  656

  Covid-19 (Coronavirus) - Status Update Thread

  by Simon in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  this topic is to focus on status updates & advice (no opinion or politics please).. status.

  latest status is that it's serious, probably isn't going to be contained and most large companies are making contingency plans, cancelling large events etc... which i don't think would happen if it was just people being alarmist.

  the incubation period means it may have already spread further and infected many more people than are currently known, so expect jumps in the numbers over the coming days and weeks.. tracking.

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  MeanMrMustard

  It doesn't though, it's clearly worse. I suspect you are not comparing like-for-like which is something lots of people are doing.

  What do you mean by that? I am referencing the several studies recently released - one from Stanford, one from USC, and the other (I think) was from NYC on delivery room mothers (they were getting tested no matter what as they came in to deliver). The Standford study had the death rate around 0.1% - 0.2%. That is nearing the death rate for the flu (0.1%). When I said it is "looking quite a bit 'like the flu'", I was referencing these studies. Now, these studies could be shown to be incorrect as time goes by. But for now, the death rate is curving down toward flu-like rates.

  This is largely because 1) with more testing the studies are finding a 50 to 80 times more people infected, but aren't symptomatic at all, and 2) governments are fudging the number of deaths. So the numerator is shrinking and the denominator is growing.

  The rate if contagion, however, seems much higher than the flu.

  When someone says: "Can we finally put the “it’s like the flu” nonsense to rest?", it bothers me. We should be able to talk about it. If one study comes out with a revised death rate, that might be a "hmmm" moment. Two? Three? All giving the same reasons why the numbers shift?

  So when you say "it is clearly worse" if we compare "like-to-like", what do you mean? In what way are you comparing? Are you referring to the potential to cause a system collapse (like Italy), then yes, that is true. But neither of us is incorrect at that point.
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  656

  Covid-19 (Coronavirus) - Status Update Thread

  by Simon in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  this topic is to focus on status updates & advice (no opinion or politics please).. status.

  latest status is that it's serious, probably isn't going to be contained and most large companies are making contingency plans, cancelling large events etc... which i don't think would happen if it was just people being alarmist.

  the incubation period means it may have already spread further and infected many more people than are currently known, so expect jumps in the numbers over the coming days and weeks.. tracking.

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  MeanMrMustard

  Can we finally put the “it’s like the flu” nonsense to rest?

  That depends on what you mean by that. As more data comes in, the death rate is looking quite a bit "like the flu". However, other aspects of this virus are not like the flu, such as the rate of contagion. The entire point of the economic halt was NOT to prevent the virus from spreading. It will spread. It will come back in the fall.
  

  We’ve had people on this forum contract the virus and die, the prime minister of the UK in intensive care, members of the government in Italy, Iran, and elsewhere seriously ill. I don’t know anyone personally who has died, but through other people: one person in my dad’s work died, another in my mum’s workplace, someone at the post office, one relation of my cousin, and a family member of someone in a Glasgow church.

  It is tragic when anyone dies. I've knows two people (not counting Zing) that have died from this. But what is the point of this statement? Fear? Do we ignore the facts and hide? Do we watch our civilization crumble because we are scared? There are net effects to policy. It is not the case that public policies are 100% correct or 100% incorrect.

  I don’t remember hearing of anyone dying of the flu ever.

  I do. My son's friend died of the flu. Small boy.
  

  I understand it does happen every year, mainly with very old people, but clearly this virus is on a completely different scale.

  In some ways, yes. But in others, no. And as more data comes out, we should re-evaluate our positions. That is only healthy.
  

  Not to mention growing worries about long term health impacts on those who survive the disease, that we may need to live with as a society for years to come.

  We can't hide from it. There is a high probability that you will get this at some point. You may have already had it. It seems like the vast majority of people don't even know they had it. If you never get it, the reason will be that everyone else has gotten it and is providing you with herd immunity.

  I absolutely agree with people who say China has got questions to answer, even reparations may be in order.

  Yeah, I am not sure how we can handle this. Just walking away from debt obligations might cause other issues (net effects)

  Everything I hear tends to support the idea that this virus escaped from a laboratory. In either case the Chinese authorities were criminally negligent, We also need to hold our own governments to account. The fact this started in China doesn’t absolve our own governments of responsibility for their failure to prepare and poor response to the crisis.

  And there are reports (from the US Senate, no less) that we were funding the research. I will wait for more information on this, however.
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  656

  Covid-19 (Coronavirus) - Status Update Thread

  by Simon in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  this topic is to focus on status updates & advice (no opinion or politics please).. status.

  latest status is that it's serious, probably isn't going to be contained and most large companies are making contingency plans, cancelling large events etc... which i don't think would happen if it was just people being alarmist.

  the incubation period means it may have already spread further and infected many more people than are currently known, so expect jumps in the numbers over the coming days and weeks.. tracking.

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  MeanMrMustard

  So no, you are right, he did not say beach, he said disinfectant, but still he mentions injecting that into the body, so it is not a hoax.

  Trump says, "Try to get lots of water". The media says: "Trump tells people to go drown themselves".

  It is true that Trump has moments of sloppy speech. That is a valid criticism. However, the point is that if the media was genuine, doing honest journalism, the worst (the absolute worst) headline they could have written would have been something like: "Trump bumbles speech through parts of the COVID briefing".

  There is no way any reasonable person could have heard Trump's words and thought, "Well, I should go inject some bleach or Lysol into my arm."
  
  
  
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  14

  Hospital is laying off and furloughing

  by Anony Mous in

  1. social
  2. current

  i've been having a tough time today, i just got notice that our hospital is laying off a large group of people and furloughing others.

  nurses, doctors, we just don't have enough business during this covid crisis, we've only ran at 60% capacity, while cuomo is telling us about shortages, they weren't ever realized, and nys simply won't open up fast enough for us to recover.

  nys has given notice that hospitals are likely going to be out for 4-5 more months before all restrictions will be lifted, only necessary surgeries are allowed right now, with a few hundred of millions per month revenue shortfall, this is going to destroy and contract our business and our remote (rural) hospitals are the hardest hit, probably going to close permanently.

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  MeanMrMustard

  https://youtu.be/uGXxPRayzJU
  
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  90

  Do You Think It’s Time For Businesses To Reopen Even Though Coronavirus Is Not Obliterated?

  by minimus in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  i think it’s time for business to reopen and let’s get the economy going again!

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  what say you??

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  MeanMrMustard

  MEAN MR MUSTARD:

  I feel badly for these small businesses. It’s true that people should have savings but for some that’s easier said than done with everything so expensive.

  Well, to be fair, I see how these hairdressers live. If they were more modest in their spending, they could have a savings.

  Why do you think everything is so expensive?
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  90

  Do You Think It’s Time For Businesses To Reopen Even Though Coronavirus Is Not Obliterated?

  by minimus in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  i think it’s time for business to reopen and let’s get the economy going again!

  .

  what say you??

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  MeanMrMustard

  As an example : In our area there was a food bank drive thru staged at the local community college. The idea was that if you need food, you can go and get groceries/food without getting out of the car. It was for people that are hurting for not being “essential”. They expected 40,000. There were several hundred thousand. They ran out of food.

  Hairdressers in the area are taking appointments. Of course, this is currently illegal. They don’t care - they’ve rigged their salons to separate customers and change over to a store front if anyone rats them out. They are allowed to sell products, but not perform services. Their salons are like speakeasies during prohibition. They have to work. Unemployment is overwhelmed. They aren’t getting any money.

  Now, I think they are learning a valuable lesson not to live without some savings. And they are also learning they can’t rely on government, unless they want to starve.

  
  
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  90

  Do You Think It’s Time For Businesses To Reopen Even Though Coronavirus Is Not Obliterated?

  by minimus in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  i think it’s time for business to reopen and let’s get the economy going again!

  .

  what say you??

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  MeanMrMustard

  There is going to be possibility of having an upsurge of new cases after the restrictions are lifted in certain areas.

  I would say there definitely *is* going to be “an upsurge in new cases”. That is, the possibility is 100%. As more testing is rolled out, don’t be surprised if you find more “new cases”. And that is what worries me. The leftists in government have had a power boner for the last two months. It’s like a drug to them. They will do more tests and lo! They will find more cases, an upsurge. It will be spun that more cases means a larger emergency. And the power grabs will continue.
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  90

  Do You Think It’s Time For Businesses To Reopen Even Though Coronavirus Is Not Obliterated?

  by minimus in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  i think it’s time for business to reopen and let’s get the economy going again!

  .

  what say you??

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  MeanMrMustard

  As we get more facts, we should to be able to ask sensible questions about this entire situation. There are net effects here. The economy is not some nebulous thing out there, as if it is separate from us. The economy is us. It represents our interactions. It is our way of allocating resources and calculating which projects to undertake.

  There have been three separate studies now that show this virus is much, much more contagious than originally thought. This is good news because most people don’t even know they have it. The death rate is lower than originally thought.

  For those who would be in serious danger, the goal was to not prevent them from ever getting the virus. That is like stopping the wind. Rather, the goal was to slow the rate of hospitalizations, prevent overwhelming the system. All things considered, I think that was successful. We will never really know if we could have done the same without the severe economic hit. Sweden and Japan present an interesting counterfactual. We ought to be able to talk about it. But it doesn’t matter. Open stuff back up.
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  39

  My sister just sent me this text.

  by Brainfloss in

  1. jw
  2. experiences

  my sister sent me this text a few minutes ago.

  what does she know about my relationship with jehovah?

  it was followed up by a bunch of links to jw org problem is dialog is not possible her side is the only one to be heard.

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  MeanMrMustard

  "Awesome, I have a brochure for you too. To get your free copy, all you have to do is go to www.jwfacts.com".
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  48

  Does prophesy negate free will?

  by Tim207 in

  1. watchtower
  2. bible

  not sure if this is in the right subject but here it goes.

  i’ve asked this question to a few elders and bethelites but they don’t seem to understand or like the question.

  to start off we have to agree that jehovah is all powerful.

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  MeanMrMustard

  But that is not what christians & JWs believe.

  All Christians? The references that I passed to you were written by Christians, well at least the second reference. The first seemed like flat out logic paper, critical of determinism.
  

  They teach that god knows every tiny detail of your life - every single thought word and action - BEFORE your birth.

  Exactly. But they are also saying this pre-knowledge doesn't imply what you think it implies, without creating a modal logic error. God's pre-knowledge comes first chronologically, but not logically.

  Let me see if I can say this another way. If God can create a world with free will, all that omniscience implies is that He knows the outcomes of the free will, not that free will doesn't exist. They assert FIRST that free will exists. THEN assert God knows the outcomes because of the omniscience. Choice causes the pre-knowledge, not pre-knowledge causing the choice.

  In short, God knows what you will choose. But you still choose.

  Indeed that is what the bible teaches if read literally. JWs believe the same except they insist god doesn't choose to read The Great Big Book of You; He COULD know but prefers not to. Perhaps Jehovah likes surprises.

  Right, and that has its own contradiction - as I stated earlier.

  Anybody theist who insists on god's omniscience cannot square this circle. There is/was a school of thought called Open Theism led by men like Clark Pinnock that tried to unpick this puzzle by teaching that God does not know the future perfectly as he cannot know our free choices in advance.

  Again, I don't see the explicit contradiction. Where is the square circle? They are looking at free will and omniscience a differently than you are... but why is that a contradiction? Look, I am not making an argument for that world view. I am just saying that I don't see the explicit contradiction (square circle).

  I had a falling out with our Baptist pastor over this issue and became an apostate for a second time.

  I had a falling out with my cat today, as I almost transformed him into General Tso's ... I miss General Tso's.