Hey Slim,
I think it will take another decade (of the older generation of JW's dying off in waves) before the "1914 generation" shit hits the proverbial fan. From what I've read in the forum, the doctrine change has been a fairly stealthy one and hasn't fully registered in the consciousness of the rank and file (especially with the WTS still shouting the "end is near!"-just not so near as before?)
I do agree the GB is probably "scrambling" to find a "solution" but they face the dilema of authority loss if human error is admitted and reform is entertained. I think a western shrinkage will start in the 2020's and a organizational shift toward the third world will happen.
One wild card in this time table is whether or not the abuse lawsuits succeed in stripping the new mirror corp.'s of their assets in the coming years. A financial crisis (hundreds of millions in just U.S., Can, and U.K. alone) could precipitate this shrinkage in an organization already pressed for funds.
How many religions have voluntarily "ceased operations/closed for business"?
W.