Posts by besty

posted

739
250,000 Jehovah's Witnesses have died refusing blood
by nicolaou in
1. watchtower
2. medical
80+ branch davidian cult members died in waco, texas.

250,000+ #jehovahswitnesses have died refusing blood.

stop this #cult!
besty

In summary my method was:

Anemia death rate x JW Risk Multiplier x estimated number of JW's per decade

I used an anemia death rate of 0.8/100,000 which is at the high end of - the USA is 0.5/100,000 and the UK is 0.1/100,000 for comparison. Wikipedia gives a global figure of 0.24/100,000 for iron deficiency anemia.

The risk multiplier is where this debate hinges. The NZ study indicates 10.74x. And yet the implication of Marvins' interpolation of the JW death rate being 0.26/1,000 (not per 100,000 as is more commonly used) is a 130x risk multiplier.

Marvin is using a study that indicates a 10.74x multiplier to interpolate a 130x multiplier. Go figure.

The number of JW's per decade is easy to estimate.
739
250,000 Jehovah's Witnesses have died refusing blood
by nicolaou in
1. watchtower
2. medical
80+ branch davidian cult members died in waco, texas.

250,000+ #jehovahswitnesses have died refusing blood.

stop this #cult!
besty

@SBF - what was your methodology to get to 29k?
739
250,000 Jehovah's Witnesses have died refusing blood
by nicolaou in
1. watchtower
2. medical
80+ branch davidian cult members died in waco, texas.

250,000+ #jehovahswitnesses have died refusing blood.

stop this #cult!
besty

@marvin

I've taken a look and this is what I get.

Your blog premise is the JW death rate in New Zealand from anemia is 0.26/1000.

Quoted from your blog - " That is, the extrapolated annual rate of mortality for Witnesses who suffer death from severe anemia as a result of Watchtower’s blood doctrine is .026%." (0.26/1000)

and

"This study found 103 Witness patients who suffered severe anemia and 20.4% of these died. During this period the death rate among patients who suffered severe anemia but accepted ARBC transfusion was 1.9%."

In other words a JW with severe anemia (in New Zealand) dies at 10.74x the rate of the general population with the same condition. Are we in agreement so far?

The problem is that 0.26/1000 is a factor of 130x with the 0.2/100,000 anemia death rate for the general population in New Zealand according to worldlifeexpectancy.com. And yet according to the NZ study the variance is 10.74x.

So which is it? Are JW's 10.74x more likely to die from anemia or 130x more likely?

The next obvious questions for me are how many JW's have there been on average at any one time, and what is the typical death rate from anemia. If we know how many JW's are walking the planet in any one year, we can apply the anemia death rate and multiply that figure by 10.74 to extrapolate JW anemia deaths, based on the NZ study.

According to http://www.worldlifeexpectancy.com/cause-of-death/anaemia/by-country/ - New Zealand has 0.2/100,000 anemia death rate. The USA has 0.5/100,000. The UK has 0.1/100,000.

Lets use 0.75/100,000 to be generous and accounting for more recent growth in JW's in Nigeria, Brazil, Mexico etc. Multiply by 10.74. That gives a JW an anemia death rate of 8.055/100,000. That is - a JW with anemia is like a Rwandan with anemia - anyways.

Now how many JW's are there at any one time?

I'm going to use round figures:

1960's decade total - 10m 1970's - 20m 1980's - 30m 1990's - 45m 2000's - 65m

1960's = 10m * (8.055/100,000) = 805 JW's in the 1960's died from anemia.

Continue the maths and you get to total 13,700 JW's that have died from anemia for the 5 decades, globally.

Just a thought.

EDIT - I haven't subtracted the estimated number of those who would have died 'anyway'
29
Any proof that more JW's are leaving in greater numbers then before?
by Crazyguy in
1. jw
2. friends
or is it just wishful thinking on our parts?.
besty

The leadership has to cultivate and maintain a sense of urgency and a reason for being in such a consuming religion. Running an end of the world cult without a date is more tricky than it looks.

My personal thought is they did a Microsoft and missed the Internet first time round, it bit them in the ass and now they are trying to use the Internet to reshape their approach - the Mormons have done it already.

This new phase of jw.org promotion and the sell-off from Brooklyn and move upstate has become the major management distraction, the GB deluding themselves into feeling that they are accomplishing 'something', anything tangible - in the absence of the end of the world as we know it.

The 1980 crisis at Brooklyn was 1975 +5 years for the disappointment to fester. I expect 2014 +5 years once they have been installed in their country club for a few years to be significant. The crazy can then really start to flow.

Here's my other prediction - the jw.org promotion works better than they could have hoped for and lots of new JW's sign up. Lets say they are back at 10% annual growth for a few years. But these new signups are not hardcore. They are internet JW's. Thats how they got there. The revolving door might just start spinning a lot faster.

Note - join my religion, at least I have a date in mine. :-)
739
250,000 Jehovah's Witnesses have died refusing blood
by nicolaou in
1. watchtower
2. medical
80+ branch davidian cult members died in waco, texas.

250,000+ #jehovahswitnesses have died refusing blood.

stop this #cult!
besty

marvin - why not rewrite your blog to get the number to match 250k?

a 5x discrepancy from 50k seems worthy of proper research and documentation, which you are well placed to do.
71
ELDERS STEPPING DOWN
by ADJUSTMENTS in
1. jw
2. experiences
between two congregations that i know of four elders have stepped down in the last two months!

there is something really going on in this mandmade organization!

it's busting at the seams!.
besty

If I was an elder wanting to resign I would inform the CoBE of my decision. End of story.
143
Come... take the free gift of the water of life!
by tec in
1. jw
2. friends
peace to you all!.

for some time now, i have been arguing and debating and discussing matters of god and the spirit (who is christ).

i have tried to share as he has given me to share whenever he gives me something to share.
besty

Evolution is not a fact. It is a belief.

May I ask if you were taught the Bible version of creation as a child?
17
JW iPad app
by besty in
1. watchtower
2. bible
will speakers at the kingdom hall be permitted to read the nwt from an ipad?

from a smartphone?

using the new official app.... .
besty

bttt
17
JW iPad app
by besty in
1. watchtower
2. bible
will speakers at the kingdom hall be permitted to read the nwt from an ipad?

from a smartphone?

using the new official app.... .
besty

Will speakers at the kingdom hall be permitted to read the NWT from an iPad? from a smartphone? using the new official app...
17
Email conversation with a colleague
by zakharijah in
1. jw
2. experiences
i just wanted to share this conversation i had by email with a jw colleague last year at easter.

(on my professional email address).

or how can you say to your brother, allow me to extract the straw from your eye; when, look!
besty

I would have ignored the email personally - most shit goes away with my technique.