10 Graphs that show that the Watchtower is in trouble in Mexico
Mexico is by far the country where the witnesses have had the most success in the entire world. Almost any statistic except the total amount of witnesses shows that Mexico is where the witnesses have had the wildest success in the world.
Proportional to population, the witnesses in Mexico are double, or nearly triple, what they are in the US or Brazil.
But there is "trouble in paradise". If Mexico falls, pretty much the whole Watchtower falls.
Which is why it is so important to have jwfacts translated to Spanish.
I made an analysis and things are looking bad in Mexico... if trends continue, Mexico will become just like the 1st-world countries.
Here is the first graph:
Maximum Publisher % increase:
Notice that this statistic has an obvious downward trend since the peak in 1983. It had a major dip after 1975... but it's interesting to note that 2015's number was worse off than even post-1975.
Average Publisher % Growth:
In this one they're not yet as bad as post 1975, but there is a definite downward trend... the numbers have been getting smaller for three years in a row: 2014, 2015, 2016. Exclude 2013 and the numbers have gotten smaller since 2009.
The third statistic is baptisms. This one is harder to interpret, but the trend is clearly downwards... in 2016, they went under 20,000 baptisms... the first time since 1989! They have been falling very quickly... 2015 and 2016 have seen steep declines.
Hours per baptism.
This one is absolutely brutal. It is even worse than the world average, worse than the US numbers!
It is 12 times harder to get one baptism now than it was when it was easiest in 1975. In 1975, a mere 970 hours and they got one more... now... it's nearly 12,000 hours. This number is triple what it was in the year 2000. This shows that people are investigating on the internet before they become witnesses... and they just don't.
Fifth Statistic: Bible Studies
They've had a clear decline in the past couple of years... It seems like this number is severely affected by dates... there are declines post 1975, post the generation change, and post 2014.
6th Statistic: Conversion Rate. This is the percentage of Bible Studies in a given year that get baptized.
Another brutal statistic, with record low in 2016 and record high previous to 1975. Again, note that this number is worse than post-1975...
7th: I read in another post here that when we start to see congregations shutting down, that's when the Watchtower is in trouble. Well... They had the largest dip ever in 2014... But I think it was because they were stupid and said they were going to shut down a lot of the English congregations in Mexico.... very stupid thing to do. The English speaking JW's in Mexico were mostly retired folks... they were driving a lot of the growth!
8th: Memorial attendance:
They rarely have dips... but they've had the largest dip ever in 2015... The problem is more obvious in the next graph.
9th: Memorial attendance % growth:
Clearly, they're on a downward trend... possibly slipping into negative territory being common.
10th: Hours preached. Again, dates make an impact on this statistic....
So in conclusion, things are looking bad for Mexico... the crown jewel of the Watchtower.
I believe there are four elements that have affected the statistics severely since 2013:
1) The proliferation on Facebook of exJW pages in Spanish since 2013, and the translation of jwfacts into Spanish starting in 2013.
2) The decline of the English congregations in Mexico. They sent out a letter asking all non-native English speakers to leave the English congregations, and that now the preaching in English was only to be done to native English speakers...
3) The psychological importance of 2014... 100 years after 1914.
4) The cart witnessing is impressively inefficient. Witnesses are barely preaching door to door now, which works much better than the cart witnessing. If they get used to it... there might not be a going back to door to door.
What do you think?
great news !
Thanks, very impressive.
I can't talk much about Mexico; what I know is what I read but I will venture that two factors related to the decline of the WT in that country are the migration to USA (which counts for the little bit of increase in the USA) and the control of the cartels in certain regions of the country where it has become really dangerous to operate witness style.
Wonder why they told English speaking non natives to leave?
I will venture that two factors related to the decline of the WT in that country are the migration to USA (which counts for the little bit of increase in the USA) and the control of the cartels in certain regions of the country where it has become really dangerous to operate witness style.Sorry Hecce but there is no data to support that statement... Witnesses have grown in every state, even in states with lots of cartel violence. Plus, if that were the case, we would see a decrease starting in 2006... all of the trends show that growth in the witnesses in Mexico has to do with things in the witness world... except for the internet which is a major non-witness world variable that really affects them.
Wonder why they told English speaking non natives to leave?I don't know, but I am guessing power struggles in Bethel in Mexico. Someone big there probably hated the English speaking witnesses, considered them snobs, considered them as "stealing" the publishers from the Spanish speaking side.
Well, THEY STILL HAVE GROWTH IN MEXICO as long as it's above Zero %.
But the stats show that might go away. Surely, they are running out of kids willing to be baptized or forced into it.
I can imagine the retired English-only JW's are such a minority. Most probably could go to Spanish language congregations. They might even like going to Spanish if they don't speak the language, just sitting there like bumps on a log as usual, but with a language-barrier excuse.
If they close English-only, it's a money thing. The retired JW's probably give minimal amounts to keep the congregation expenses at bay, but not much toward the worldwide work.
If Mexico falls, pretty much the whole Watchtower falls.
The charts are interesting, but I don't see how "Mexico falling" spells doom for the WTS.
The only thing that would cause trouble for the WTS (in the short term, anyway) is loss of money. I suspect that even with the 2nd highest count of JWs in the world, contributions from Mexico are fairly low.
In what sense does "Mexico falling" cause the "whole Watchtower to fall"?
Unfortunately is probably not possible but it would be interesting to see if this people are not being counted twice. Being in a Mexican family I know how many cousins and uncles venture to work illegally in the states. Many many times over a lifetime. Off course, if they were witnesses in Mexico, they will attend meetings in the US as well.
Off course, no one gets baptized twice but some numbers could be off if people move a lot between borders.