The Modern Exodus: Perception or Reality?

by Hadriel 43 Replies latest watchtower beliefs

  • Finkelstein

    The WTS heads may be gathering up the cash before this indentured scam of exploitation

    really falls over on itself .

    Money seems to have taken a greater focused attention like never before with this organization in its entire history, I wonder why ?

  • Hadriel

    @Simon yeah I agree with everything you said in general and you're right usually there's something that happens which affects them directly.

    However more are leaving not because they were dealt with but because as you said it doesn't pass the directed by God test.

    Things are starting to pile up is the point and you can't hide it anymore. Stuff is too accessible and it will only get worse. More and more child abuse stuff will mount. It will for sure affect several as it is already.

    I still say the generations teach could be the reason for the biggest exodus. Why? That teaching has never been moved off of. why? Because too much has been made of it. You move from it and although some may buy it I'm betting most won't. It is just too integral.

    Think about how many say "when 1914 fell for me that was it". Now imagine the society itself finally having to admit in 60 years or so that they had the generations deal wrong. It will be catastrophic. Most of us unfortunately won't be here to see it.

    At least that's my .02

  • konceptual99

    I think Simon's point is well made. The generation teaching is a big thing for me but for many they simply do not care. The GB play the game very well and change doctrine in a way that people can digest with very limited collateral damage.

    The organisation is held together with the glue of cognitive dissonance and it takes something very strong to start to break that down. In my experience, for long standing Witnesses it's injustice and personal matters that generally allows any dissatisfaction with doctrine to turn into progressive and open minded questioning.

    I would not underestimate the leeway the GB has to be able to change huge amounts of doctrine with very little real damage to the faith of the vast majority.

  • Simon

    I guess the point I mean to make is that every time they change a doctrine, some people think it's "the beginning of the end" that will lead to their imminent demise.

    But it never is !

    Change is significant to us because we are looking hard for it to say "ah ha - see !". But they have always changed and the people who are in don't care - they are simply not there because it makes logical sense.

    Unless they pull a church of god and declare themselves false I just don't see it ending. Even then, I doubt the majority would budge but would just eject the ones saying it.

  • Phizzy

    There must be a point where they are really not making any money, where they have downsized as much as possible, have sold off most of the saleable assets and income is badly down.

    At that point the awake ones amongst those really behind the Org, the Legal and Financial guys, will have already jumped ship, and the ship will be rudderless.

    When the present steady trickle of leavers becomes a stream, that point will be quick in coming.

  • Simon
    There must be a point where they are really not making any money

    Why must there?

    They are a religion - it's hard to think of a more favourable "business" to be in.

    Tax free, free labor, donations, excuses for avoiding most legislation.

    Wanting an exodus doesn't guarantee one.

  • Hadriel

    @Simon in all sincerity you'd have a way better handle on this than I. My sample size is well not exactly large ha ha.

    ...and ur right they'll just keep moving the goal posts and people will still buy it. I just think with 1914 eventually you just run out of scenarios. I can't see where they can go anywhere from the overlapping deal. I don't see where they can come up with another "this generation" scenario.

    My guess is the next light will be complete abandonment. However they've abandoned things before around the turn of the century and people still stayed so maybe it's all just a dream.

  • Simon

    I guess I've just seen so many announcements of their imminent demise for 16+ years (and I know it didn't start then) that I'm skeptical. There's always someone new who is quick to declare that they will destroy the WTS and if only we can get the message out then people will be convinced and leave. The walls will crumble, people will cheer, the clouds will part and rainbows will blaze overhead.

    It never happens and I don't think it ever will.

    They have always been a fringe religion of changing beliefs and evolving doctrines and while some people will leave over some of them, many forget that they change for a reason - either to retain or gain new converts. They appeal to a particular niche and as long as life isn't too bad for people they will grow up and stay in long enough to often saddle a new generation with the life. It's no different to any other religion - you are brought up to believe what your parents believe until you realize your parents were wrong.

    Some people take all this to mean "OMG, Simon supports the WTS!" but of course it doesn't mean that at all. I am just being pragmatic and realistic and have heard it all before.

    The crisis and the doctrines change but the song remains the same.

    It's also worth remembering that they fill a niche and if they disappear, that niche wouldn't - someone else would fill it with some other variation to appeal to the customers who want to buy that type of religion. Would removing the WTS overnight be the best thing for most people? Possibly not - it would probably lead to some suicides and lots of vulnerable people. A slow decline into obsolescence is the best thing IMO but most importantly right now is the support so those who do want to leave can leave successfully.

  • Coded Logic
    Coded Logic

    It all depends on what a person means by "Mass Exodus".

    If you mean within a period of just a couple of months that millions of JWs will walk away from the religion - than I'm with Simon on this and I don't think it's likely to happen.

    But if by mass exodus you mean the churn becomes so high they start having negative growth - then I think they're already there. I believe they have been fudging the numbers for the past couple of years by moving the goal post of what they call a "publisher" and they won't be able to hide their reducing numbers for much longer.

    I also think it's important that we make predictions (not proclamations). Because over time it allows us to look at what we first thought vs. what's actually going on and produce more accurate models. My own prediction for a "mass exodus" is that in fifteen years there will be half the number of publishers. And I think such a prediction is worthy of the title "mass exodus". But that's just me. It seems like very few others on this forum are willing to make specific predictions about where the WT will be in the next ten to twenty years.

  • Crazyguy
    Ever since they said you could just report 15 minutes they have been hiding the numbers maybe even before. But as long as they can convince the born ins that this is Jehovah's organization by repeating it over and over again most will stay no matter what changes they make in doctrine.

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