Yearbook 2016

by Gorbatchov 23 Replies latest jw friends

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  bohm

  First jw book i am looking forward to reading.
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  chirac

  
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  Londo111

  I've been wondering if the baptism numbers are 185600 rather than 18560 and somehow a zero has been accidentally lopped off.
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  sir82

  "18560" is under the "increase" column. It represents the increase in 2015 peak publishers over 2014 peak publishers.

  We've discussed this chart on numerous other threads, but I still enjoy looking at it.

  I believe we've finally hit the top of the curve regarding JW growth.

  One thing that occurs to me, that I don't recall discussing before: In August 2014, there was a massive push by the org. to distribute the special "jw.borg" tract. Virtually every elder & MS was strong-armed into being an aux. pio., and a concerted effort was made to "reactivate" publishers in the "easy" campaign work.

  So the August 2014 peak number was artificially inflated. There was no such "special campaign" in August 2015, so the increase of 2015 over 2014 is much smaller.

  Even so, the number of baptisms and Memorial attendance were both down from 2014, and those had nothing to do with the August 2014 campaign. If we are not at the top of the growth curve, we are no more than a year or 2 away.
  
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  OneEyedJoe

  I've been wondering if the baptism numbers are 185600 rather than 18560 and somehow a zero has been accidentally lopped off.
  

  This seems unlikely to me because this number is derived from the difference in peak publishers year over year, not baptisms. For the number to be off in such a way the mistake wouldn't have been a missing zero it would've been under reporting peak publishers by 167040. That doesn't turn out to be such a tidy off-by-one type error.

  Furthermore, looking at the numbers for 2014 and 2015 together it paints a clearer picture. There was a larger increase in peak pubs in 2014 (probably due to their big august push of jw.org flyers combined with anticipation that oct 2014 might see armageddon) than usual. Because the factors leading to the 2014 increase could not be sustained, the numbers corrected and dropped back down. Taken together the average increase for 2014 and 2015 is ~126k increase per year which is more in line (but still a good bit below, in most cases) previous years.
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  redvip2000

  If we are not at the top of the growth curve, we are no more than a year or 2 away.

  Even if this is true, which could well be, don't under estimate the ability of the Org to massage and boost numbers using a number of different tactics. So even if the true number is 0, the folks in bethel will be hard at work to come up with a formula that will give them a much more palatable number.
  
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  slimboyfat

  It used to come in December but it's been getting later and later. It'll probably be posted on the website in the first few days of January.
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  Londo111

  Oops...my bad! I misread this entirely. Multitasking is not my strong suite.
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  chirac

  have a look on 1975 year

  and compare to what is happening this year
  

  
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  Beth Sarim

  That's quite the chart, thanks. Amazement.