How confident are you about various so called facts?

by slimboyfat 175 Replies latest social entertainment

• 

  slimboyfat

  No facts about the world are absolutely certain. That being the case I wonder how others would rank amd rate their confidence in various factual statements about the world. I am going to rate my confidence in ten items of "knowledge" as a percentage. I wonder if we're mostly on the same page or complete opposites on the forum.

  1. The earth is a sphere rather than flat in shape. 99.9%

  2. Global warming is a real phenomenon of serious concern that is caused by human activities. 70%

  3. Life on Earth evolved its many forms through the process of natural selection. 98%

  4. The gospels are based on a real apocalyptic preacher called Jesus who lived in first century Palestine. 50%

  5. J F Rutherford was a drunk who cheated on his wife with various women. 65%

  6. Smoking causes lung cancer. 99%

  7. Men really walked on the moon. 95%

  8. Consciousness survives death. 10%

  9. Moses wrote the Pentateuch. 5%

  10. Dragons exists. 0.1%

  11. Homeopathy is effective beyond placebo. 1%

  12. O J Simpson was innocent. 3%

  13. Scotland will be an independent country within 20 years. 80%

  14. There will be a nuclear war sometime in the 21st century. 60%

  15. The New Testament originally contained the divine name. 51%

  16. At least one of the presidents of the Watchtower was homosexual. 75%

  17. The universe began in a Big Bang around 14 billion years ago. 85%

  18. China is the country with the most people. 97%
• 

  breakfast of champions

  This is good. . . .

  I especially like the OJ reference.
• 

  millie210

  I loved your topic post so much I read it through twice.

  I agree with your statements as well as your percentages for the most part. The one I might wonder about is #2 and I would say my percentage is a bit lower.
• 

  Village Idiot

  1. The earth is a sphere rather than flat in shape. 99.9%

  100%

  2. Global warming is a real phenomenon of serious concern that is caused by human activities. 70%

  100%

  3. Life on Earth evolved its many forms through the process of natural selection. 98%

  100%

  4. The gospels are based on a real apocalyptic preacher called Jesus who lived in first century Palestine. 50%

  100% with qualifications. It is a completely distorted account but Jesus was real. He was a Jewish mystic and a failed magician who tried to impress people thinking that if they believed hard enough those 'miracles' would become real.

  5. J F Rutherford was a drunk who cheated on his wife with various women. 65%

  80% based on eyewitness testimony.

  6. Smoking causes lung cancer. 99%

  99% with qualifications. Some people are genetically resistant and can smoke like a chimney at a hundred years of age.

  7. Men really walked on the moon. 95%

  100% I saw it with my own eyes.

  8. Consciousness survives death. 10%

  0.1%

  9. Moses wrote the Pentateuch. 5%

  5%. Some of it perhaps.

  10. Dragons exists. 0.1%

  0%

  11. Homeopathy is effective beyond placebo. 1%

  5%

  12. O J Simpson was innocent. 3%

  0%. He reeked of guilt.

  13. Scotland will be an independent country within 20 years. 80%

  No clue.

  14. There will be a nuclear war sometime in the 21st century. 60%

  85%

  15. The New Testament originally contained the divine name. 51%

  50%. Some of it especially Matthew if it was written in Aramaic/Hebrew.

  16. At least one of the presidents of the Watchtower was homosexual. 75%

  5%. That's the percentage of Gay/Bisexual men in the general population. No reason to think the upper echelons of the JW hierarchy is any different.

  17. The universe began in a Big Bang around 14 billion years ago. 85%

  90%

  18. China is the country with the most people. 97%

  99%. It's slightly above India's population but imperfection in gathering statistics might be misleading.
• 

  peacefulpete

  I'm pretty sure no one should have doubts that the earth is round, not even a little bit. lol We must be careful not to slip into 'relativism', the belief that nothing can be determined absolutely, is a messy and unproductive philosophy born of mental laziness and weak resolve. The ability to be certain and yet be open to new evidence is a practiced art.
  
• 

  peacefulpete

  1. The earth is a sphere rather than flat in shape. 99.9%

  100%

  2. Global warming is a real phenomenon of serious concern that is caused by human activities. 70%

  100%

  3. Life on Earth evolved its many forms through the process of natural selection. 98%

  100%

  4. The gospels are based on a real apocalyptic preacher called Jesus who lived in first century Palestine. 50%

  Insufficient evidence for or against to have a resolve.
  

  5. J F Rutherford was a drunk who cheated on his wife with various women. 65%

  Insufficient evidence to have a resolve

  6. Smoking causes lung cancer. 99%

  100%. This does not equate to saying all smokers will get cancer.
  

  7. Men really walked on the moon. 95%

  100%
  

  8. Consciousness survives death. 10%

  0%

  9. Moses wrote the Pentateuch. 5%

  0%

  10. Dragons exists. 0.1%

  0%

  11. Homeopathy is effective beyond placebo. 1%

  0%

  12. O J Simpson was innocent. 3%

  0%. If I were on the jury, I would have convicted him.

  13. Scotland will be an independent country within 20 years. 80%

  Insufficient evidence to be resolved

  14. There will be a nuclear war sometime in the 21st century. 60%

  Insufficient evidence to be resolved

  15. The New Testament originally contained the divine name. 51%

  0% no evidence supporting that conclusion
  

  16. At least one of the presidents of the Watchtower was homosexual. 75%

  Insufficient evidence to be resolved. Plus none of my business.

  17. The universe began in a Big Bang around 14 billion years ago. 85%

  100%
  

  18. China is the country with the most people. 97%

  I have not researched the topic therefore have no resolve either way.
  
• 

  peacefulpete

  Boy reading my comments and they make me sound like a real arse. Sorry,.. my point was simply that we don't have to be afraid to have conviction when others don't. Also we also do not need to have a conviction about everything, somethings can be deemed indeterminable or just irrelevant to me personally at present.
  
• 

  slimboyfat

  Strange that you cannot put a figure on confidence in Jesus' existence, but are absolutely certain you know how the original NT read.

  I do not think pragmatic scepticism, as I would describe it, is an unproductive world view.
• 

  slimboyfat

  Conviction and indeterminacy are matters of degree. That was my point.

  There's something wrong with a world view that must assign the same absolute confidence in global warming as in the shape of the earth. One is physically observable, the other is an interpretation of various complex phenomena. 98%
• 

  truthseeker100

  It's not global warming it'S climate change!!