How confident are you about various so called facts?

by slimboyfat 175 Replies latest social entertainment

  • nicolaou
    It's up to you to prove that something is 100% sure.

    Okay. I'm 100% sure I won't be playing your childish game any longer.

  • slimboyfat
    The earth is an oblate spheroid rather than flat in shape. - 100%

    Can't it be both? This is fact fascism! Pure and simple.

  • LoveUniHateExams

    Slim, that account involved an internal decapitation, not a decapitation proper.

    (I read a similar article that detailed the internal decapitation of a man following a car crash)

    It's not for me to come up with exceptions to any absolute you choose to declare. It's up to you to prove that something is 100% sure - but taking this position is starting to make you look a little silly. You've already used claims that lions and tigers lived on straw in WWW2, plus the 'accounts' (no link, tho) supposedly made that suggest/show that head transplants are feasible. Have any of these claims/accounts been tested?

  • Simon
    It's up to you to prove that something is 100% sure.

    Again, you are confusing probability of something happening with confidence in a certain probability being likely.

    You can be 100% confident of a not guaranteed outcome. They are different things.

    Lions and Tigers living on straw has been debunked. I remember the elders throwing that at me re: the animals learning to kill from man (yeah) so I looked it up. They were fed other things (meat) that may have been bulked up with grain.

    If lions could live of straw, why do they chose to die of starvation in the wild ...

  • C0ntr013r

    To me it looks like you use the same words but mean different things.

    Unless you agree on the definition of: "sure/certainty" you cant discuss it.. At least not in any meaningful way.

    Also, some people can have 0%/100% confidence in something. Others cant because they always take the possibility that they are wrong into the equation(no matter how small).

    So to state that is it wrong to asses 100% certainty is incorrect, if it is a measure of perceived certainly and not probability. (why it is so important to define what the words mean in the context)

    But it is also incorrect to say that you can have 100% confidence in something, since some people cant.

    It is two fundamentally different perspectives.

    This is my take on it anyhow.

  • Simon
    It is two fundamentally different perspectives.

    Correct, mathematical confidence is very different to the probability of something. You can be very confident that something has a low probability or not confident that the high probability is really meaningful or definitive.

    Bayes theorem is all about that and is stupendously clever (especially as it comes from a time before computers but has so many applications in computer science)

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