2016 Yearbook of Jehovah’s Witnesses
"See how Jehovah's blessing us, brothers, we've been experiencing rapid growth in the number of those who have the 'upward calling' (Luke 6:66). There has been a 7.5% increase of these partakers, compared to last year ... "
Wait, that's not right ...
The disparity between the increases of 'peak' and 'average' publishers is curious. It may be simply a function of reporting methods. It used to be explained that 'peak' includes ones who report several months at one time to catch up, so August (at the end of the service year) was the highest month, as people were asked to complete all their reports before Sept 1. Now with texts, electronic communication, etc it may be that the effect of the 'peak' is less pronounced. In either case, the 'average' publisher is probably a better measure to compare across years.
DOYKL - Your reasoning makes sense from a neutral statistical point of view however the critical point is that the WTS have been shameless in their massaging of statistics to demonstrate growth and imply the action of Holy Spirit and Jehovah's blessing.
They have consistently used peak publishers as a marker for gloating. Anyone who regularly saw the KM in the 70's, 80's and 90's would know how a country's yearly peak publishers was used to demonstrate growth, even when it bore little relationship to the monthly figures presented.
Examination of the figures over time has demonstrated completely different trends to those preferred by the WTS and they have slowly removed published figures from the KM and also from publications. You see significantly less gloating now, rather it's all about the money.
The Yearbook is pretty much the last place you will find the data needed to demonstrate the real health of the organisation and they are making moves to obfuscate that even more. The new reporting regime completely undermines the old argument of needing to know placement figures to gauge publishing requirements. It simply lumps everything together, encourages false reporting and includes meaningless preaching interactions. The object - find some way of having some growth in preaching related figures.
I am personally very surprised at the drop in hours given the fact you have people on carts doing 3-4 times what most do on the D2D work but I bet the number crunchers at Bethel saw that coming via trends from monthly reports and have tried to stem the flow with the new reporting instructions.
I also wonder if they will start to raise the profile of Matt 24:12 regarding the love of the greater number cooling off and apply that more directly to Witnesses
So Romania, my country, has had a decrease of 1 individual in average publishers. They are around 40300 now. This is an absolutely and utterly pathetic result considering how much they invested in preaching in this country. So many foreign pioneers, COs, etc. So many special preaching campaigns. So much effort. And for what? A decrease by 1 individual. Bahahahaha, it's becoming sad. Even sadder knowing that a decade ago they had something like 37000 avg. publishers. So, they managed to gather 3000 new members in a decade, in a country with 20 million people? Many of which are probably new born-ins. Disastrous I'd say. Considering how much bad press they've gotten due to the blood issue, 2016 will be an even worse year for them.
Another point I'd like to make is that the worldwide growth is really weak and pathetic. Why? Because it's mostly taking place in third world countries with easy to manipulate, poor, uneducated, ignorant populations. Many of these people don't even have internet access. As soon as that comes, expect dismal numbers like in the Western countries. And let's be honest, the rich countries are the ones that matter. Brazil isn't going to support the financial needs of the WT billionaire club.
That's what's laughable. They show some growth but where? Significant growth in Europe? Nope. USA? Nope. Canada, Australia, Japan? Nope. Nope. Nope. The growth is in South America, but even that growth appears to be slowing down. Which is really a shame for WT, because I think South America is most open to them culturally and socially.
Finally, another interesting thing is their abysmal numbers in some highly populated countries. Bangladesh has a population of 160 million and 243 avg. publishers? Hahahah! India has 1.3 billion people and 43000 avg. publishers. Again, laughable. Thailand has 67 million and 4300 avg. publishers. Turkey 77 million and 2500 publishers. And the examples continue. I know the climate in these countries is very hostile for JWs, but how can they claim they are getting to all people before the end, when most of the people in these countries don't even know who JWs are?
Thanks for posting!
Huge shoutout for the poster who first leaked these numbers. I got to say I think these numbers are better for the WTBS than I expected with no drop in the western world. This indicates (?) the lack of growth is in 3rd world countries (someone should figure out where the reduction in growth is happening) and with these being the most affected by cutbacks the coming year 2016 is properly not going to be stellar either.
That said, with growth curves there is a regression towards the mean implying that we should be expect 2016 not to be as bad as this year for the WTBS.
I found the figures for the Britain section interesting, as I live in the U.K.
Last year they officially spent over 24 million hours preaching, and probably similar in previous years, and added the grand total of 183 people to their number .
As has been said before, if this were a commercial organization in the normal sense, that Sales Force would all get the Boot !
The numbers for Germany:
Even if you round the numbers in Watchtower's favour, comparing the number of baptisms to the increase in publishers proves that the WT has been producing more exJWs than JW's every year for some time now.
Think about that; more exJWs than JW's every year.
It's not over by a long shot but clearly, we're winning.
pg 109 - 110
Dissent in Jakarta
As the brothers adjusted to the wartime hardships, they soon faced another serious test. The Japanese authorities ordered all foreigners (including Chinese-Indonesians) to register and to carry an identity card bearing an oath of allegiance to the Japanese Empire. Many brothers wondered, ‘Should we register and sign the identity card, or should we refuse?’
Felix Tan explained: “The brothers in Jakarta urged those of us in Sukabumi to refuse to sign the identity card. But we asked the authorities if we could change the wording on the card from ‘the undersigned have sworn allegiance to’ to ‘the undersigned will not impede’ the Japanese army. Surprisingly, they agreed, so we all obtained cards. When the brothers in Jakarta heard about our decision, they called us apostates and cut us off.”
Josephine Elias with her brother Felix
Sadly, most of the hard-liners in Jakarta were arrested and renounced the truth. One brother who refused to compromise ended up in prison with André Elias. “I reasoned with him on the registration issue and helped him to get a more balanced view,” said André. “He humbly asked forgiveness for cutting us off. We then had a grand time building each other up, but tragically, he died because of the harsh prison conditions.”