# Survey: How long were you in the cult vs what year you were baptized

by ILoveTTATT2 155 Replies latest jw friends

• ##### Simon

It may turn out that an accurate model of people's chance of leaving works out to a set percentage per year. The longer you are in then the more chance you have of leaving eventually as time goes on but there;s no reason some people can't leaving on year 1 and other never. That's just percentages and chance.

I'll have to dig out a paper I wrote but bizarrely, this reminds me a little of project estimation and the chance of certain tasks being done on time. It's not always intuitive but the probabilities at play result in certain emergent behaviors

I'll explain it tomorrow. Or the day after (after I figure out what I meant). :D

• ##### truthseekeriam

1) I would say raised in but my mom left for some years and then went back in my teenage years.

2) 1991

3) 2009

4) 18 years.

1) Raised

2) 1985

3) 2009

24 Years...

• ##### ILoveTTATT2

Here are the stats using around 130 data points.

• ##### Oubliette

An average is not necessarily half-way in a data set, it all depends on its distribution.

The first part of your statement is correct, the second is not. There are three kinds of mathematical averages. See my previous post.

If something has a 50-50 chance, like a flip of a coin, the law of large numbers says that if you flip a coin enough times, you will have a 50-50 chance of getting heads or tail.

No. If you flipped a coin a million times in a row and came up head every time, the next flip would still have a 50/50 chance of being heads or tails (assuming a legitimate coin).

• ##### Khaleesi

1. Convert

2. 1998, @ 17 yrs baptized

17 yrs total

• ##### incognito2014

It seems to e that the whole basis for this data means that the only possible outcome is that people leave the "truth" in a shorter time more recently.

The reason is because your sample population is those that have left (even if mentally if not physically), i.e on this board. If someone came into the "truth" in the 1950's then they have a possibility of being a witness for 60 years or so, if they came in in 1990's then they could only do about 20 years but if they came in in 2010 they could only be a witness for a max of 5 years.

Granted some in the 60's would have lasted as a witness only a year or 2, but all of the 2010 would have only lasted a shorts time.

So obviously the later they came in the less time is was before they left.

• ##### Sail Away
ILoveTTATT2: I think this would be an interesting stat that has never been done before. I am certain that the results will be that the internet significantly reduces time in for everyone. A graph of "time in" vs year would be very insightful. I am sure that there will be more "lifers" in previous generations, and much less now.

My problem is that your survey doesn't question whether the Internet was a key factor in leaving the organization earlier or if it was a factor at all. Several posters, including me have stated that it was not a factor. I'm curious as to why it is you think that this is the key factor? Why not any one or combination of the following or some other unknown reason:

Increasing control from the top down-- I knew with every fiber of my being that contact with DF'd/DA'd family members for "essential family business" only would give way to no contact before it was even put in print, and I walked away not knowing TTATT.

Stricter rules on shunning-- When I got baptized (1976), the teaching was you could have normal family relations, just not talk about "spiritual matters". I left because I refused to shun my son.

Significant increase in "New Light" (How can "The Truth" change so often over time?)-- there have been non-stop and significant doctrinal changes and flip flops together with random inane restrictions. From my perspective, after being involved for over four decades, JWs just don't know what they believe anymore.

Child sexual abuse in church communities increasingly reported in the media-- I knew of at least two pedophiles in my former congregations. It did not escape my notice that this was not being addressed by JWs.

Just my 2 cents

• ##### Oubliette

ILoveTTATT2: I am interested in doing this as best as possible.

If you're really serious, then you need to reconsider your approach and your starting assumptions.

Here's what's getting you off:

ILoveTTATT2: I think this would be an interesting stat that has never been done before. I am certain that the results will be that the internet significantly reduces time in for everyone. A graph of "time in" vs year would be very insightful. I am sure that there will be more "lifers" in previous generations, and much less now.

Instead of starting with a question (hypothesis), you began with an assumption stated in terms that show you've already reached your conclusion before you even began your research. As a result, you are only finding results that confirm what you already believe.

This is not how science works.

• "The first principle is that you must not fool yourself and you are the easiest person to fool." - Richard P. Feynman

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Try framing your hypothesis as a question. Maybe something like this:

1. Does increased access to the internet significantly reduce the length of time it takes for a baptized JW to leave the religion?
2. What kind of data would I need to collect to support this hypothesis or disprove it? (Note: In science, we can never prove anything with absolute certainty.)
3. Where and how can I collect this? What amount will be sufficient?

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As SailAway astutely observed: "Your survey doesn't question whether the Internet was a key factor in leaving the organization earlier or if it was a factor at all." If you really want to know if the internet was a factor, you should have asked that in your survey. But you'd also have to realize that the answers to this question would inherently be skewed because everyone answering it is on the internet responding to your survey!

Ponder these questions and concerns and see if they help clarify and focus your research.

Also, you should really wade through that old thread on this topic by Cedars which I referenced previously (see page 9 of this thread). You'll learn a lot by reading the back and forth between him, slimboyfat, Sir82 and 00DAD.

Don't forget to read Paul Grundy's research also.

Oubliette

• ##### Mephis

1) Raised

2) 1995 (aged 18)

3) 1995, what is now called a fade began before baptism. Complex situation but should have been braver.