Sure it works out. 1% of a hundred, ten in a thousand, a thousand in ten thousand. There'd be enough of what was needed in each group, if the pool were large enough.
We discovered four earth like planets (hypothetically) who would go where???
by jam 92 Replies latest members private
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Viviane
Sure it works out. 1% of a hundred, ten in a thousand, a thousand in ten thousand. There'd be enough of what was needed in each group, if the pool were large enough.
Nope, not at all. There is absolutely no guarantee you would get the mix of skillsets needed in a random lottery. Remember, the lottery is 100% random, no cherry picking western nations.
Let's assume Canada has the ideal nurse and doctor to patient ratio, respectivley 104.3 nurses and 20.7 doctors per 10000 people. Drawing people for a random lottery, say you picked 10000 people at random to populate this light ship for another world. A random pick of people from around the globe would yield just 13 doctors and 29 nurses, far less than the ideal ratio. If you assume the UK has the ideal doctor to patient ratio, then the picture is even worse, you are short 14 doctors per 10K people. France? Yikes, short 20 doctors. Norway.... you see where this is going.
So, now, what if the random lottery for your instant 10K person town randomly gets only 8 doctors? Remember, no single outcome is ever guaranteed in a truly random pick, you could get a lottery with less than 13 doctors (the world average). You could easily get get a random pick with more than enough doctors, but none of them are dentists or surgeons or neurologists.....
What about technical people, engineers, R&D? Again, let's assume Canada has the idea ratio at about 56 people per 10K of population. According to the World Databank, on average the global ratio is around 25. Half of the ideal number. Not good.
Global adult literacy rate is about 84.1%, so about 1590 adults of your random 10K people won't even be able to read. About 700 people will be 65 or older, 2800 will be under 14, so on and so on.
A random pick gets you not enough doctors, 15% of your adults will be illiterate, almost 30% of your workforce will be too old or too young to work (and will need another percentage of your workforce to educate and/or care for them), not enough engineers to maintain an existing infrastructure, much less colonize a new world. We have even gotten into agriculture, but I can't imagine the picture is much prettier.
Not a pretty picture on a random lottery.
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Viviane
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