by slimboyfat 153 Replies latest watchtower bible
Consider this Steve, in 1982 the last year you reported time, on average 1 Witness in 16 pioneered in any given month.
In 2012 that was 1 Witness in 6 who pioneered in any given month. Even taking the reductions in the hour requirements into consideration that's a pretty impressive increase in the ratio of JWs recruited into the pioneer ranks.
Personally I find it ridiculous to say that someone who is not physically capable of doing one hour's service a month should not be counted as a Jehovah's Witness. That was a ridiculous invention of the Society themselves of course, changing it made sense.
This month is going to be the first time since becoming an unbapised publisher that I will not be putting in a report, so too early for me to measure growth, but at least it's one more off the list!
This has been an interesting discussion. The premise SBF has put forward does have historical parallels. For instance, I’m sure that many who took part in or otherwise supported the Protestant Reformation of the sixteenth century were sure the Roman Catholic Church was Babylon the Great and would inevitably perish. Well, it’s five centuries later and the RCC is as strong as it ever was and shows no sign of imminent collapse. The Church weathered the Reformation and outlasted many of the movements it spawned.
Some in this conversation have cited all kinds of figures to support their various viewpoints. But figures are curious things. I am reminded of Benjamin Disraeli’s remarked which was taken up by Mark Twain: “There are three kinds of lies. There are lies; there are damned lies; and then there are statistics.” As a mathematician, I have seen how true that statement can be sometimes.
My own belief is that the WTS is stagnating and is on the cusp of decline but that it also has an enormous reservoir of support from rank-and-file Witnesses. Does this mean that the organization will still be around a century from now? Not necessarily. I will remind everyone that twenty-five years ago both the Berlin Wall and the Soviet Union stood secure. Who in their right mind would have predicted that the Wall would be breached overnight or that the Soviet Union would implode in four months two years later?
My point is that we cannot go by general trends because something can happen to upset all theories and predictions. It is my firm hope that the WTS will go the way of the Berlin Wall and Soviet Union. This is an organization that has committed crimes against both God and man. It has outlived its usefulness—if indeed it ever had any—and what good it has done has been canceled by its sins, and its day of reckoning will be a day of rejoicing.
Quendi
isn't the lack of elders evidence of decline... I've heard from many who are in that it's an issue..
and... why didn't they double the magazines size .. instead of cut in half.. that's your proof, they are declining .. plus we all know they lie about their numbers..
There's definetely more Witnesses today than 10 years ago and that will be the trend for some years to come BUT there are undeniable signs that things are changing fast :
This thread brings up a notable, if unfortunate, fact: JW's are increasing as publishers.
However, it is also true that we are not measuring the same thing. A 2013 JW is generally different from a 1960's JW. They are declining in quality not quantity (not yet, anyway).
An additional point - discussions of this nature suppose a gradual, linear future. "The Organization will gradually fade away", or similar thoughts are often expressed.....
I feel otherwise. World events are likely to change radically and quickly and that will effect the Organization, likely not towards its survival.
metatron
sbf, are you saying half of the current number of eligible pubs have come in after 1995, roughly 4mill? (I apologize for not knowing the numbers, I'm an accountant and the last thing I want to look at is numbers outside of work...even my own.)
I hear from my old hall that the potential elder pool is rather shallow. The elderly ones are just now gone, some moved out, and from the 20-30 yr olds...not much interest in gunning for appointment. Most of those are happy with MS status. They have made one appointment in the last few years, and the guy has turned into exactly the fellow he used to complain about when he was a MS. C'est la vie.
I've always thought the way to disable this organization is when they lose the elders and FT pubs. The R & F don't mean anything, pioneers do and reducing the hours is a perfect way to shore up those ranks.
Yes Dagney, more than half the current JW membership came in after 1995.
Elders do look like they are decreasing. It's a shame we don't have access to the actual figures, although I bet the WT leadership is well aware and collates the numbers.
don't you have go out in service to be counted as a publisher? so if they wouldn't have lowered the minimum hours to be counted what would the real number of active ones be ..
so the numbers do lie .. so it's really not fair to say because we're out, we are biased to a decline .. since the numbers are skewed.. nobody really knows .. if they only counted people who went Door to Door not just, "When you were at work did you ever say the word Bible?"
reminds me of a Joke.. It was asked of a Mathmatician, Physicist and an Accountant what is 2+2???????????
Mathmatician 4
Physicist 4.0
Accountant what do you want it to be?
SBF, the issue has never ever been are there thousands more active Witnesses in New Zealand than when I was last active. I can agree with you on that and other specifics (as you well know). On numerous posts, I've had to correct you on your interpretations of what I have said. Corrections have the virtue of clarifying reasoning - for which I am appreciative of your questioning. However, I get more than a sneaking suspicion that you are positing a view that I may not fully disagree or fully agree with.
If I thought the "decline" of the witnesses was an open and shut case, I would have said so. My points have been more carefully expressed. The sum of what I have been saying is, on several indicators, growth has, in some cases, slowed down and in others stagnated. None of these specific observations about specific trends in specific locations of the world changes the points you bring to our attention: The number of peak and average publishers worldwide is increasing. A closer look, however, shows a far more varied picture than you either realize and/or acknowledge. A recent poster made a compelling point: The active JW of the 1960s is a different creature than the active JW of the 2010s for a variety of rerasons. The most compelling feedback I get from still-in JWs is the organizational "tolerance" for low reporting hours has increased across the board. I have relatives who breeze through a month or two of auxiliary pioneering. It wasn't just my dear, now-deceased JW mother who often lamented the deplorable attitude of modern-day witnesses (e.g., the obligatory mid-morning sojourn to the nearest McCafe for way longer than 3- to 40 minutes with the cwitnessingh clock still ticking.)
Separately, these are relatively interesting but minor snapshots; collectively they suggest that the Watchtower maintains its active operability through downsizing the requirements. That is very, very different from my arguing for worldwide decline which palpably is not the case.
